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Post by dappy on Nov 22, 2023 20:09:16 GMT
Betting odds currently suggest Labour is about 75% probability of having a majority, about a 18% chance of a hung parliament and about a 7% chance of a Tory majority.
In most hung parliament scenarios , Labour would lead the next Government so you can probably say roughly a 90% chance of a Labour PM.
In terms of size of any majority , can’t see any betting on that. The current polls suggest massive majorities. I hope that isn’t the case - HOC should broadly reflect vote share.
Incidentally bringing NI cut forward to Jan suggests a early May election is a real possibility.
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Post by walterpaisley on Nov 22, 2023 20:20:11 GMT
Because, obviously, you're the only arbiter of who is, or isn't, "Tory". Not sure I follow that Walter, I'm a Tory. A proper centre right Tory. So a Tory who isn't (what you would consider) "Centre Right" isn't a "proper" Tory? |
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Post by Red Rackham on Nov 22, 2023 20:27:17 GMT
Not sure I follow that Walter, I'm a Tory. A proper centre right Tory. So a Tory who isn't (what you would consider) "Centre Right" isn't a "proper" Tory? Correct Walt, I believe we're on the same page. |
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Post by Red Rackham on Nov 22, 2023 20:29:28 GMT
Betting odds currently suggest Labour is about 75% probability of having a majority, about a 18% chance of a hung parliament and about a 7% chance of a Tory majority. In most hung parliament scenarios , Labour would lead the next Government so you can probably say roughly a 90% chance of a Labour PM. In terms of size of any majority , can’t see any betting on that. The current polls suggest massive majorities. I hope that isn’t the case - HOC should broadly reflect vote share. Incidentally bringing NI cut forward to Jan suggests a early May election is a real possibility. In 2019 political commentators were predicting Labour would be unelectable until at least 2029. The only poll that counts is on election day. |
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Post by dappy on Nov 22, 2023 20:31:45 GMT
Because, obviously, you're the only arbiter of who is, or isn't, "Tory". Not sure I follow that Walter, I'm a Tory. A proper centre right Tory. Are you though? Your views on nationality and race and patriotism are right wing undoubtedly. Similarly on what you see as “woke” issues certainly also, except to an extent in respect of sexuality presumably because of family reasons. Economically I’m not so sure. Do you believe in privatisation? Do you believe tax cuts should be targeted at the rich? Do you believe that the market can be trusted to be good for all without need for regulation? Do you believe we should scrap or at least massively reduce the minimum wage or that employee rights to paid holidays and protection from unfair sacking should be abandoned? I suspect you are , like most people, more of a mix than you let on but perhaps more comfortable being part of a tribe than being an individual you want to be and gradually are being brainwashed into the GBNews bunker. |
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Post by dappy on Nov 22, 2023 20:34:04 GMT
Betting odds currently suggest Labour is about 75% probability of having a majority, about a 18% chance of a hung parliament and about a 7% chance of a Tory majority. In most hung parliament scenarios , Labour would lead the next Government so you can probably say roughly a 90% chance of a Labour PM. In terms of size of any majority , can’t see any betting on that. The current polls suggest massive majorities. I hope that isn’t the case - HOC should broadly reflect vote share. Incidentally bringing NI cut forward to Jan suggests a early May election is a real possibility. In 2019 political commentators were predicting Labour would be unelectable until at least 2029. The only poll that counts is on election day. Of course. All we are doing is trying to predict what that outcome will be. As with most predictions the nearer you are to the event the easiest it is to predict. Looking very possible the next election may be less than six months away. |
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Post by Red Rackham on Nov 22, 2023 20:46:36 GMT
Not sure I follow that Walter, I'm a Tory. A proper centre right Tory. Are you though? Your views on nationality and race and patriotism are right wing undoubtedly. Similarly on what you see as “woke” issues certainly also, except to an extent in respect of sexuality presumably because of family reasons. Economically I’m not so sure. Do you believe in privatisation? Do you believe tax cuts should be targeted at the rich? Do you believe that the market can be trusted to be good for all without need for regulation? Do you believe we should scrap or at least massively reduce the minimum wage or that employee rights to paid holidays and protection from unfair sacking should be abandoned? I suspect you are , like most people, more of a mix than you let on but perhaps more comfortable being part of a tribe than being an individual you want to be and gradually are being brainwashed into the GBNews bunker. Yes I'm a centre right Conservative. I believe in, amongst other things, small government, pride in national identity, severe restrictions on immigration, the rule of law. |
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Post by dappy on Nov 22, 2023 21:06:52 GMT
Tell me about “small government” . Nice buzz word. What does it mean. Does small government for example mean the market can always be trusted so we don’t need compulsory paid holidays for workers?
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Post by Red Rackham on Nov 22, 2023 21:27:50 GMT
Tell me about “small government” . Nice buzz word. What does it mean. Does small government for example mean the market can always be trusted so we don’t need compulsory paid holidays for workers? Libertarian conservatism advocates the greatest possible economic liberty and the least possible government regulation of social life. This is described as 'small government'. Dappy I have to ask, do you have access to google? |
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Post by dappy on Nov 22, 2023 21:50:55 GMT
Anyone can copy and paste definitions of the internet Red. I am looking for you to explain what it means for you with examples of what your belief in small government means.
I asked for example whether your belief in small government means you believe we don’t need to have legislation to make paid employee holidays compulsory? What about minimum wage? Do we need controls on monopolies? Perhaps you could give me more economic examples of rules that could be disgarded?
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Post by dappy on Nov 22, 2023 22:43:46 GMT
I suspect this rather proves the point. Red is more comfortable being part of the tribe rather than being a free thinker and really wants to be the follower on the tribe rather than working things out himself. His tribe tells him he should believe in small government so he believes in small government even though he doesn’t really know what that means in practice.
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Post by Pacifico on Nov 22, 2023 22:58:31 GMT
Anyone can copy and paste definitions of the internet Red. I am looking for you to explain what it means for you with examples of what your belief in small government means. I asked for example whether your belief in small government means you believe we don’t need to have legislation to make paid employee holidays compulsory? What about minimum wage? Do we need controls on monopolies? Perhaps you could give me more economic examples of rules that could be disgarded? Small Government or Big Government...  |
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Post by Baron von Lotsov on Nov 23, 2023 0:00:08 GMT
Anyone can copy and paste definitions of the internet Red. I am looking for you to explain what it means for you with examples of what your belief in small government means. I asked for example whether your belief in small government means you believe we don’t need to have legislation to make paid employee holidays compulsory? What about minimum wage? Do we need controls on monopolies? Perhaps you could give me more economic examples of rules that could be disgarded? Small Government or Big Government... You might like to chew on this fact. I got it from a reputable source, can't quite remember where, but China's growth in the last 30 years has been greater than any sizeable* country's economy in the entire history of our civilisation.
*i.e. not counting microstates like Lichtenstein or whatever.
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Post by Red Rackham on Nov 23, 2023 0:07:35 GMT
You might like to chew on this fact. I got it from a reputable source, can't quite remember where, but China's growth in the last 30 years has been greater than any sizeable* country's economy in the entire history of our civilisation. *i.e. not counting microstates like Lichtenstein or whatever. BvL bigging up China. Well imagine my surprise. |
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Post by The Squeezed Middle on Nov 23, 2023 0:33:49 GMT
Small Government or Big Government... You might like to chew on this fact. I got it from a reputable source, can't quite remember where, but China's growth in the last 30 years has been greater than any sizeable* country's economy in the entire history of our civilisation.
*i.e. not counting microstates like Lichtenstein or whatever.
What, as in "Most populus country in the world grows more than anywhere smaller"? Well, quelle surprise. 🙄 But it's still a shit tonne less wealthy per capita than most western democracies. |
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