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Post by Baron von Lotsov on Nov 6, 2023 11:31:03 GMT
The forecasts were all scenario-based and hence why they diverged from reality. If it were a bad forecast for a particular scenario the government would not pursue that scenario. The public who followed the spastic-minded press forgot this very important detail. It's why many died. They were simpletons. They believed they knew better and went out drinking as usual. Neil Ferguson was accurate because he used mathematics. He would have been even more accurate if the data were better collected, which was another issue we failed on. Garbage in = garbage out. Well when you use the wrong scenario you must expect to be wrong. And to be fair it was not just Ferguson who kept getting it wrong - SAGE forecast that we would need 90,000 beds with ventilators, actual use peaked at 2,849.....  The hospitals were over 100% capacity. You can't fill beds you have not got. 25% of staff were on sick leave and a lot was due to stress. It was a complete shit show. |
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