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Post by The Squeezed Middle on Feb 12, 2024 16:31:00 GMT
I tend to agree that support for Starmer is being overplayed, as was the supposed disaster of 2019 when Labour did so badly that they only managed to poll more votes than Blair in 2005, lol... What, you mean when Blair got the lowest share of the vote by any winning party ever?  |
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Polling
Feb 12, 2024 16:54:38 GMT
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Post by Totheleft on Feb 12, 2024 16:54:38 GMT
I tend to agree that support for Starmer is being overplayed, as was the supposed disaster of 2019 when Labour did so badly that they only managed to poll more votes than Blair in 2005, lol... What, you mean when Blair got the lowest share of the vote by any winning party ever? Obviously it was more share then any other single party. |
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Post by Dogburger on Feb 12, 2024 17:14:08 GMT
The point is seats in Parliament in line with votes . Representation of the people of the UK . nope. The snp dont represent the people of the uk. They represent the people in scotland only. Same as Plaid Cymru , Sinn Fein , DUP and many other parties who stand in their constituent nation , rather than across the multi national uk. Thats right , but the reverse of that argument is also true. The snp got 49.97 % of the vote in the country where they stood. UKIP only got 12 % of the vote uk wide , and a mere 14.1% of the vote in your own country England. The snp didnt make the rules for Westminster elections and fptp. You can't then moan when they smash the very system England has implemented for its own parliament , and moan when UKIP can't do the same , neither in England itself , or uk wide. You aren't comparing like for like , and doing your own argument for a proportional English system a disservice . A false argument ive already said , because it doesn't stand uk wide , only in scotland. If ukip had managed to get 49 .97% of the English vote , it similarly would have had a large volume of seats , but it couldnt. That wasn't the snp fault. The didnt devise the uk electoral rules did they? We already have a pr system in scotland , which the snp has convincingly won under numerous times. Why moan to me about rules for your own countries parliament ? I support pr. It doesn't matter what system you put in front of scotland , we will still smash the brit parties. The snp took 49.97% of scotland vote ,got 56 seats , meanwhile the tories got 36.8% of the vote in your parliament , but got 330 seats , and you tell us it's unfair? Tony Blair won a landslide in 2001 with 418 seats off the back of barely a fifth of the uk electorate , on the lowest post war election turnout. Scotland isnt the problem. It's your country that has all the issues , as ive said before , England is arguably the only nation in Western Europe without a form of pr . I dont support FPTP. Ive attacked the dodgy fptp two party system for years. My problem with what you wrote is your false comparisons , and using the snp as the object of your ire. The snp dont stand uk wide , and didnt implement the system for Westminster you are moaning about. I can see what your saying with regard to my false argument and shouldn't have included the SNP in my comparison , fair enough |
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Post by thomas on Feb 13, 2024 9:17:02 GMT
fair enough Steve , as you say , its all hypothetical at this point. Johnson certainly couldnt do any worse than Sunak. When you scratch the surface of keir starmers polling lead , you see he hasn't actually increased labours support from the 2019 election as a percentage of the overall electorate. In scotland , starmers approval ratings are falling that low if they go much further , he might end up worse than thatchers. Starmers Labour Party have stood still while all the others parties votes have fallen past them. If. Johnson came back , and the snp got their act together with a new leader and a renewed push for independence , I think starmers labour would be blown out the water. He is offering nothing new , merely more of the same , and is clearly pissing off his own voters regarding Gaza and trying to out tory the tories. We dont need two conservative parties. If starmer does manage to win the next election , I suspect he will be nothing more than a brief sticking plaster for the UKs woes . Thats before we even start to consider the fallout from his BRINO deal he will try and foist upon the English electorate. I tend to agree that support for Starmer is being overplayed, as was the supposed disaster of 2019 when Labour did so badly that they only managed to poll more votes than Blair in 2005, lol. The real culprit for distorted outcomes for good or ill is of course FPTP but the pundits typically ignore that in talking about outcomes. The country is said to have backed this or that party when in every postwar election the winning party has never gained majority support. The one who came closest was Attlee in 1945 but that was a very long time ago when people largely still backed the two party system. Invariably since then a majority of the country never voted for the government and thus tended to be politically opposed to it, rather than backing it. The current polling support for Starmer and Labour is soft at the moment, based upon Labour being the Not The Tories Party and little else. I suspect a number of things will happen that will narrow their poll lead come the election, though I doubt it will be anywhere near large enough to save the Tories at this point. Firstly many disgruntled Tories who are flirting with Reform right now or telling pollsters they will not vote Tory will when push comes to shove and they realise that not doing so makes a Labour victory more likely, hold their noses and vote Tory anyway in the end. At times of intense unpopularity, many potential Tory voters go shy. Their likely vote percentage will probably be higher than current polling suggests. Also poll leads often narrow in elections, sometimes markedly so as in 2017. And whilst the failings of a government are always in the news, the plans of the opposition - or lack of them - tend to come under greater scrutiny in an election campaign. I still think at this point Labour will win a majority, though probably not as large a one as polling currently suggests. This is nevertheless a pity because I would prefer a hung parliament for reasons I have set out many times before. just read this morning labour have withdrawn support from their own candidate in rochdale ,which could possibly let George galloway in . Looks like starmers purge of anyone criticising Israel in the party , coupled with his views on Gaza which appears to be against the mainstream views among the labour grassroots could still derail his bid for prime minister. I think the tories would do well to drag this out as long as possible , there is a great chance labour could completely hamstring themselves before an election is called. We have discussed before starmers uncanny ability to miss open goals. |
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Post by thomas on Feb 13, 2024 9:19:18 GMT
nope. The snp dont represent the people of the uk. They represent the people in scotland only. Same as Plaid Cymru , Sinn Fein , DUP and many other parties who stand in their constituent nation , rather than across the multi national uk. Thats right , but the reverse of that argument is also true. The snp got 49.97 % of the vote in the country where they stood. UKIP only got 12 % of the vote uk wide , and a mere 14.1% of the vote in your own country England. The snp didnt make the rules for Westminster elections and fptp. You can't then moan when they smash the very system England has implemented for its own parliament , and moan when UKIP can't do the same , neither in England itself , or uk wide. You aren't comparing like for like , and doing your own argument for a proportional English system a disservice . A false argument ive already said , because it doesn't stand uk wide , only in scotland. If ukip had managed to get 49 .97% of the English vote , it similarly would have had a large volume of seats , but it couldnt. That wasn't the snp fault. The didnt devise the uk electoral rules did they? We already have a pr system in scotland , which the snp has convincingly won under numerous times. Why moan to me about rules for your own countries parliament ? I support pr. It doesn't matter what system you put in front of scotland , we will still smash the brit parties. The snp took 49.97% of scotland vote ,got 56 seats , meanwhile the tories got 36.8% of the vote in your parliament , but got 330 seats , and you tell us it's unfair? Tony Blair won a landslide in 2001 with 418 seats off the back of barely a fifth of the uk electorate , on the lowest post war election turnout. Scotland isnt the problem. It's your country that has all the issues , as ive said before , England is arguably the only nation in Western Europe without a form of pr . I dont support FPTP. Ive attacked the dodgy fptp two party system for years. My problem with what you wrote is your false comparisons , and using the snp as the object of your ire. The snp dont stand uk wide , and didnt implement the system for Westminster you are moaning about. I can see what your saying with regard to my false argument and shouldn't have included the SNP in my comparison , fair enough all im saying is when arguing for PR , if ukip or reform is your preferred party , you can't use a Scottish only party and its success in 2015 as an example , then dilute their vote/seats by the whole uk electorate. No reasonable person would do this. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2024 10:38:13 GMT
I tend to agree that support for Starmer is being overplayed, as was the supposed disaster of 2019 when Labour did so badly that they only managed to poll more votes than Blair in 2005, lol... What, you mean when Blair got the lowest share of the vote by any winning party ever? Yes indeed. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2024 10:54:09 GMT
I tend to agree that support for Starmer is being overplayed, as was the supposed disaster of 2019 when Labour did so badly that they only managed to poll more votes than Blair in 2005, lol. The real culprit for distorted outcomes for good or ill is of course FPTP but the pundits typically ignore that in talking about outcomes. The country is said to have backed this or that party when in every postwar election the winning party has never gained majority support. The one who came closest was Attlee in 1945 but that was a very long time ago when people largely still backed the two party system. Invariably since then a majority of the country never voted for the government and thus tended to be politically opposed to it, rather than backing it. The current polling support for Starmer and Labour is soft at the moment, based upon Labour being the Not The Tories Party and little else. I suspect a number of things will happen that will narrow their poll lead come the election, though I doubt it will be anywhere near large enough to save the Tories at this point. Firstly many disgruntled Tories who are flirting with Reform right now or telling pollsters they will not vote Tory will when push comes to shove and they realise that not doing so makes a Labour victory more likely, hold their noses and vote Tory anyway in the end. At times of intense unpopularity, many potential Tory voters go shy. Their likely vote percentage will probably be higher than current polling suggests. Also poll leads often narrow in elections, sometimes markedly so as in 2017. And whilst the failings of a government are always in the news, the plans of the opposition - or lack of them - tend to come under greater scrutiny in an election campaign. I still think at this point Labour will win a majority, though probably not as large a one as polling currently suggests. This is nevertheless a pity because I would prefer a hung parliament for reasons I have set out many times before. just read this morning labour have withdrawn support from their own candidate in rochdale ,which could possibly let George galloway in . Looks like starmers purge of anyone criticising Israel in the party , coupled with his views on Gaza which appears to be against the mainstream views among the labour grassroots could still derail his bid for prime minister. I think the tories would do well to drag this out as long as possible , there is a great chance labour could completely hamstring themselves before an election is called. We have discussed before starmers uncanny ability to miss open goals. I doubt that it will derail his bid to become Prime Minister to any great extent. But it does increase the chances of a political upset. However, the fact that the Labour candidate has been disowned by the party for taking a pro-Palestinian and anti-Israeli stand, even if it did involve conspiracy theories, paradoxically might make that candidate more attractive to Muslim voters and perhaps in consequence weaken the appeal of Galloway and make the disowned Labour candidate more likely to win. And then Starmer really will have a problem. Because a candidate he and his party disowned will nevertheless be taking his seat in parliament, lol. Which would be kind of funny. Mind you, it would be even funnier if Galloway wins. |
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Post by Vinny on Feb 13, 2024 11:09:23 GMT
Galloway is a two trick pony.
Trick one, fawning over Muslims.
Trick two, fawning over Russia.
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Post by thomas on Feb 14, 2024 8:52:33 GMT
just read this morning labour have withdrawn support from their own candidate in rochdale ,which could possibly let George galloway in . Looks like starmers purge of anyone criticising Israel in the party , coupled with his views on Gaza which appears to be against the mainstream views among the labour grassroots could still derail his bid for prime minister. I think the tories would do well to drag this out as long as possible , there is a great chance labour could completely hamstring themselves before an election is called. We have discussed before starmers uncanny ability to miss open goals. I doubt that it will derail his bid to become Prime Minister to any great extent. But it does increase the chances of a political upset. However, the fact that the Labour candidate has been disowned by the party for taking a pro-Palestinian and anti-Israeli stand, even if it did involve conspiracy theories, paradoxically might make that candidate more attractive to Muslim voters and perhaps in consequence weaken the appeal of Galloway and make the disowned Labour candidate more likely to win. And then Starmer really will have a problem. Because a candidate he and his party disowned will nevertheless be taking his seat in parliament, lol. Which would be kind of funny. Mind you, it would be even funnier if Galloway wins. I dont know Steve , in between the media fawning over starmer , and overplaying the polls in his favour , it's clear many issues aren't going well for the man. Even if the disowned labour candidate wins , it's still going to be a massive political embarrassment for labour . The bookies though im told have galloway as favourite to win . Everywhere starmer goes , you see pictures and video clips of folk protesting and shouting at the man , and he isnt even prime minister yet. All im hearing reading and seeing , online and in the real world , is massive fury at both the Scottish and English political elite( and across Europe ) with none of the above as the mindset of most folk. This doesn't feel like a pre lude to some 1997 landslide of hope ..........more like a bitterly despised man hobbling towards power off the back of a tiny fraction of the electorate support and a massive dose of fptp two party stitch up help. |
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Post by thomas on Feb 14, 2024 8:54:36 GMT
What, you mean when Blair got the lowest share of the vote by any winning party ever? Yes indeed. which is opposed off as part of the canonisation of Blair and a glorious achievement by blairites , rather than the political embarrassment it was. |
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Polling
Feb 14, 2024 11:21:58 GMT
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Post by Totheleft on Feb 14, 2024 11:21:58 GMT
I doubt that it will derail his bid to become Prime Minister to any great extent. But it does increase the chances of a political upset. However, the fact that the Labour candidate has been disowned by the party for taking a pro-Palestinian and anti-Israeli stand, even if it did involve conspiracy theories, paradoxically might make that candidate more attractive to Muslim voters and perhaps in consequence weaken the appeal of Galloway and make the disowned Labour candidate more likely to win. And then Starmer really will have a problem. Because a candidate he and his party disowned will nevertheless be taking his seat in parliament, lol. Which would be kind of funny. Mind you, it would be even funnier if Galloway wins. I dont know Steve , in between the media fawning over starmer , and overplaying the polls in his favour , it's clear many issues aren't going well for the man. Even if the disowned labour candidate wins , it's still going to be a massive political embarrassment for labour . The bookies though im told have galloway as favourite to win . Everywhere starmer goes , you see pictures and video clips of folk protesting and shouting at the man , and he isnt even prime minister yet. All im hearing reading and seeing , online and in the real world , is massive fury at both the Scottish and English political elite( and across Europe ) with none of the above as the mindset of most folk. This doesn't feeol like a pre lude to some 1997 landslide of hope ..........more like a bitterly despised man hobbling towards power off the back of a tiny fraction of the electorate support and a massive dose of fptp two party stitch up help. Meanwhile back in Scotland labour are polied to do a amazing turn around to come a Close second to.SNP many in Scotland are turning to labour has the Alturnitive because they feel the Call for Scottish independence is dead in the water .with high Mortality rate high drug & Alcohol abuse .shocking death rate due to drugs. Increase in homelessness and high rape Crisis. Double the public det then England. Scotland can't run there own affairs without holding on to England's pures strings. Talking about Scottish people having enough how's right wing Alba party doing Do you think they pick up more than 2% of the vote come the next Scottish GE. Lol. |
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Post by thomas on Feb 16, 2024 7:12:36 GMT
I dont know Steve , in between the media fawning over starmer , and overplaying the polls in his favour , it's clear many issues aren't going well for the man. Even if the disowned labour candidate wins , it's still going to be a massive political embarrassment for labour . The bookies though im told have galloway as favourite to win . Everywhere starmer goes , you see pictures and video clips of folk protesting and shouting at the man , and he isnt even prime minister yet. All im hearing reading and seeing , online and in the real world , is massive fury at both the Scottish and English political elite( and across Europe ) with none of the above as the mindset of most folk. This doesn't feeol like a pre lude to some 1997 landslide of hope ..........more like a bitterly despised man hobbling towards power off the back of a tiny fraction of the electorate support and a massive dose of fptp two party stitch up help. Meanwhile back in Scotland labour are polied to do a amazing turn around to come a Close second to.SNP many in Scotland are turning to labour has the Alturnitive because they feel the Call for Scottish independence is dead in the water .with high Mortality rate high drug & Alcohol abuse .shocking death rate due to drugs. Increase in homelessness and high rape Crisis. Double the public det then England. Scotland can't run there own affairs without holding on to England's pures strings. Talking about Scottish people having enough how's right wing Alba party doing Do you think they pick up more than 2% of the vote come the next Scottish GE. Lol. Well we will have to see how things pan out. It is funny when you talk of Scotlands legacy of long term labour rule regarding alcohol and general mortality rate , when you look down to England , we only have to see the truth of what ive been saying for years regarding poverty following labour , and all the associated problems. Labour strongholds In the north east of England , or places like Blackpool ,have among the highest addiction problems and mortality rates in Western Europe. Thinktanks regularly point out labour have mortality rates higher than cities in Romania and turkey , despite generations of labour rule and empty promises . I think starmers polling leads are incredibly soft , but we will see the truth of things come voting time. |
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