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Post by Pacifico on Feb 9, 2024 8:41:59 GMT
Away from the main parties it seems that Reform are pulling away from the LibDems for third place and the Greens are closing in on the LibDems for 4th. Is it the Ed Davey effect and his participation in the Post Office scandal?.
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Post by The Squeezed Middle on Feb 9, 2024 9:01:38 GMT
Or more people realising that the establishment parties are a busted flush.
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Polling
Feb 9, 2024 9:16:18 GMT
via mobile
Post by dappy on Feb 9, 2024 9:16:18 GMT
Some polls have LD ahead of Reform, some the other way around. The iniquities of the voting system mean both are likely to be badly treated at the election, especially it has to be said Reform.
Reform have struggled to translate polling ratings into votes at by elections and local elections. Wellingborough will be a big opportunity for them - they really have to beat the Tories to be credible - but oddly the Tories seem to be helping them by not bothering to campaign. Not sure I see the Tory logic tbh.
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Post by Dogburger on Feb 9, 2024 9:19:11 GMT
The lib dems seemed to go into a room about 2 years ago to work out what they are going to be campaigning on and they haven't come out yet .
They have been in there for that long everyone has forgotten about them , which isn't a bad thing .
Polling ? Nobody I know, and I have asked in the past, has ever been asked a question by a pollster with regard to voting intention . For that reason I take them with a pinch of salt
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Post by andrewbrown on Feb 9, 2024 10:36:57 GMT
Away from the main parties it seems that Reform are pulling away from the LibDems for third place and the Greens are closing in on the LibDems for 4th. Is it the Ed Davey effect and his participation in the Post Office scandal?. Putting that poll into Electoral Calculus gives the following results: Tories 57 seats Labour 521 seats LibDem 33 seats Reform 0 seats Green 1 seat SNP 18 seats Plaid 2 seats Norn Iron 18 seats. That particular poll does seem a little of an outlier, the Tories are averaging around 24% at the minute, so I'd still expect them to get over 100 seats. |
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Post by Pacifico on Feb 9, 2024 11:37:45 GMT
If both Reform and the Greens each end up with a higher percentage of support than the LibDems but no representation will the current electoral system be sustainable - and will the LibDems still be demanding electoral reform?..
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Post by dappy on Feb 9, 2024 11:43:16 GMT
Your synopsis is very unlikely Pacifico, but even if it were to happen the answer would be yes. On 9% of the vote, the LDs should get around 60 of 650 seats but will likely get only around 30. That's not fair. I agree the electoral system looks likely to be even more unfair on Reform. It should be changed.
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Post by jonksy on Feb 9, 2024 11:51:15 GMT
Boris Johnson backed for comeback by Tory minister after Rishi Sunak opens door.....
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Post by Fairsociety on Feb 9, 2024 11:54:36 GMT
I suppose one good thing came out of the Post office scandal, people were actually asking 'who is Ed Davey', then when told 'Lib-dems, who are they'?
So I suppose people at least know who Ed Davey is now, and realise there is a party called the Lib-dems, the downside they now know just how useless they are.
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Post by dodgydave on Feb 9, 2024 12:00:40 GMT
It is going to be interesting.
The Tories are going to have to throw out some massive election bribes to stand any chance, and then Labour will have to counter them.
A good start would be to massively increase the tax thresholds and start student loans repayments at the same point as the 40% tax band.
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Polling
Feb 9, 2024 12:22:34 GMT
via mobile
Post by andrewbrown on Feb 9, 2024 12:22:34 GMT
It is going to be interesting. The Tories are going to have to throw out some massive election bribes to stand any chance, and then Labour will have to counter them. A good start would be to massively increase the tax thresholds and start student loans repayments at the same point as the 40% tax band. I definitely think that tax cuts were the plan. However Jeremy Hunt has been rowing back on that in the last couple of weeks, so put that together with Labour abandoning the 28Bn having got access to the books recently, one gets the impression that things are worse than they appear, and there isn't any headroom for cuts. I wonder if they'll increase support to the NHS instead, but only if they intend to have the GE in the autumn, with a chance of reducing waiting lists. If they don't think they can do that, I think a May election is likely. |
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Post by witchfinder on Feb 9, 2024 12:38:50 GMT
Given that a campaign period of six weeks is the average, then mid March would be about the time for announcing a general election if there is to be one on local elections polling day ( May 2nd ).
Budget Day is 6th March
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Post by The Squeezed Middle on Feb 9, 2024 13:30:23 GMT
The lib dems seemed to go into a room about 2 years ago to work out what they are going to be campaigning on and they haven't come out yet . They have been in there for that long everyone has forgotten about them , which isn't a bad thing . Polling ? Nobody I know, and I have asked in the past, has ever been asked a question by a pollster with regard to voting intention . For that reason I take them with a pinch of salt The Fib Dims have always been a silly party - good for a protest vote but not for taking seriously. |
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Post by Fairsociety on Feb 9, 2024 13:53:05 GMT
The lib dems seemed to go into a room about 2 years ago to work out what they are going to be campaigning on and they haven't come out yet . They have been in there for that long everyone has forgotten about them , which isn't a bad thing . Polling ? Nobody I know, and I have asked in the past, has ever been asked a question by a pollster with regard to voting intention . For that reason I take them with a pinch of salt The Fib Dims have always been a silly party - good for a protest vote but not for taking seriously. Fib Dims ........ LOL |
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Polling
Feb 9, 2024 14:12:50 GMT
via mobile
Post by Totheleft on Feb 9, 2024 14:12:50 GMT
Funny how Losers want to change the voting System.
Let's look.at the votes under a PR System
In 2019 what had a large turn out
Power to labour bring it on
The 2019 General Elections in Great Britain under proportional representation (STV)
Conservative
312
-53
Labour
221
+18
Liberal Democrat
59
+48
Scottish National Party
30
-18
Plaid Cymru
5
+1
Brexit Party
3
+3
Green Party
2
+1
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