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Post by Deleted on Dec 26, 2022 10:36:21 GMT
I still think the main problem the Tories have is their choice of Sunak as PM and Hunt as chancellor - these people were installed by the MPs and that's called a coup. With these two in charge they have absolutely no chance of winning the next GE. They'll come a poor second to Labour. However if they had anyone else in charge - AND they started to make a decent fist of controlling migration - they would still beat Labour. The problem Labour has is that the minute they start talking about their actual policies they fall apart. They're as split as the Tories and their policies are even more unpopular. What few Labour policies have been revealed so far have been reasonably popular like the ending of charitable status for private education and diverting the money saved into the state sector. But any policies have been few and far between. But whatever policies Labour do eventually come up with they would struggle to be less popular than the current shite. Besides, Starmer has a proven track record of lying to win elections so is unlikely to promise anything all that unpopular even if he has a bucket load of shite in mind for us all. I suspect Starmer, the least deserving Labour winner I have ever known, will win the next election on a record low turnout. "None of the above" will win by a landslide, but with no MPs under this banner Labour will win by default. My only hope is that the Tories can pull back enough ground to force a hung parliament. And with the aid of their gerrymandering and ID measures designed to make voting difficult for the young and the poor, they might just manage it. |
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Post by Pacifico on Dec 26, 2022 11:24:11 GMT
Well in general public sector pay is higher than that in the private sector. With regards to nurses - applications for nurses training are oversubscribed, it is a political decision to limit training places and thus the number of nurses entering the system. Well training places need to be expanded. And there is still the retention crisis. And the fact is that with their skills and qualifications nurses can earn a lot more outside the NHS. So to try and suggest that their pay is higher than comparable private sector roles is nonsense.
Speaking of many public versus private sector jobs more generally, most public sector roles require qualifications competence and training. My best friend works for the DWP and her role is not something that anyone straight out of a jobcentre can do. Many are taken on on temp contracts and the majority get let go of because they are not up to the job. Comparing public sector roles with private sector ones is comparing apples with oranges. The private sector includes a mass of low skilled minimum wage jobs so it would be an utter travesty if public sector pay was not higher. Most public sector workers could find comparable if not better pay for their skill sets in the private sector and are increasingly voting with their feet. The only thing preventing a floodtide is the fact that changing jobs is risky when most private sector employers take on on temp contracts to start with, and no one gets full employment rights in any new job for the first couple of years. Fear of easy hire and fire elsewhere is the only thing holding many in place. But as public sector pay levels continue to be driven down, fewer will apply and more will take the risk of leaving. As an example of the sort of thing happening with public sector pay, with inflation in excess of 10%, my friend and her colleagues have been offered 2%. This is well below inflation and well below average pay rises in the private sector. It is also worth noting that the government thinks holding rail fare increases down to 6% is a great offer yet thinks this is way too high for public sector pay increases. Because public sector pay is lagging far behind inflation by government diktat, to talk of excessive public sector pay rises driving inflation is frankly risible. But you are ignoring public sector pensions. The NHS Pension scheme is the most generous in the UK allowing retirement with full benefits at 55 and many public sector workers are still on generous defined benefit schemes which died out in the private sector years ago thanks to Gordon Brown among others. Pensions are simply delayed salary so to make a valid comparison you need to take the whole package into account not just the headline take home rate which you are doing. If the pensions for state sector workers were reduced to the same levels as the private sector then the government would have more money to boost take home pay if that is what you want. |
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Post by The Squeezed Middle on Dec 26, 2022 11:38:01 GMT
But you are ignoring public sector pensions. The NHS Pension scheme is the most generous in the UK allowing retirement with full benefits at 55 and many public sector workers are still on generous defined benefit schemes which died out in the private sector years ago thanks to Gordon Brown among others. Pensions are simply delayed salary so to make a valid comparison you need to take the whole package into account not just the headline take home rate which you are doing. If the pensions for state sector workers were reduced to the same levels as the private sector then the government would have more money to boost take home pay if that is what you want. You're right in the case of legacy pensions but those are fast being phased out. New joiners to the NHS, Emergency services etc. etc. are on nothing like the pensions previously offered and indeed many are opting out of the pension scheme altogether because they can't afford it (and yes, public sector employees pay for their pensions). Up to now the government have relied on the promise of a good pension in order to justify sub-par wages but going forward that excuse isn't going to be available to them. As you say, pension is simply delayed salary so if they're no longer offering a decent pension they'll have to start paying a decent wage. |
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Post by vlk on Dec 26, 2022 11:47:13 GMT
Could it be that reversely to how the Tories won northern seats at the last election Labour could win southern and rural seats at the next one?
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Post by sheepy on Dec 26, 2022 11:56:18 GMT
Could it be that reversely to how the Tories won northern seats at the last election Labour could win southern and rural seats at the next one? Except, it was a false premise to start with, their vote hasn't soared it is less than 1 in 5 voters. A fact as it happens they will have to squirm around. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 26, 2022 12:28:02 GMT
But you are ignoring public sector pensions. The NHS Pension scheme is the most generous in the UK allowing retirement with full benefits at 55 and many public sector workers are still on generous defined benefit schemes which died out in the private sector years ago thanks to Gordon Brown among others. Pensions are simply delayed salary so to make a valid comparison you need to take the whole package into account not just the headline take home rate which you are doing. If the pensions for state sector workers were reduced to the same levels as the private sector then the government would have more money to boost take home pay if that is what you want. You're right in the case of legacy pensions but those are fast being phased out. New joiners to the NHS, Emergency services etc. etc. are on nothing like the pensions previously offered and indeed many are opting out of the pension scheme altogether because they can't afford it (and yes, public sector employees pay for their pensions). Up to now the government have relied on the promise of a good pension in order to justify sub-par wages but going forward that excuse isn't going to be available to them. As you say, pension is simply delayed salary so if they're no longer offering a decent pension they'll have to start paying a decent wage. A rare occasion when I actually agree with you. Will have to make a note of this in my diary to record it for posterity. |
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Post by The Squeezed Middle on Dec 26, 2022 13:04:35 GMT
Yes, I was just thinking the same about this: What few Labour policies have been revealed so far have been reasonably popular like the ending of charitable status for private education and diverting the money saved into the state sector. But any policies have been few and far between. But whatever policies Labour do eventually come up with they would struggle to be less popular than the current shite. Besides, Starmer has a proven track record of lying to win elections so is unlikely to promise anything all that unpopular even if he has a bucket load of shite in mind for us all. I suspect Starmer, the least deserving Labour winner I have ever known, will win the next election on a record low turnout. "None of the above" will win by a landslide, but with no MPs under this banner Labour will win by default. My only hope is that the Tories can pull back enough ground to force a hung parliament. And with the aid of their gerrymandering and ID measures designed to make voting difficult for the young and the poor, they might just manage it. I agree. |
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Post by vlk on Dec 26, 2022 13:41:02 GMT
That is what grown up politics is all about; you want to get rid of the government but aren't impressed with what is on offer as an alternative either.
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Post by Pacifico on Dec 26, 2022 17:56:45 GMT
Could it be that reversely to how the Tories won northern seats at the last election Labour could win southern and rural seats at the next one? The LibDems are the main challengers to the Tories in the southern and rural constituencies - they could end up the king makers after the next election, when I would expect them to demand PR. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 26, 2022 18:36:42 GMT
Could it be that reversely to how the Tories won northern seats at the last election Labour could win southern and rural seats at the next one? The LibDems are the main challengers to the Tories in the southern and rural constituencies - they could end up the king makers after the next election, when I would expect them to demand PR. Down here in southwest England, outside the main cities of Plymouth and Exeter, the Lib Dems are the main challengers to the Tories. Outside of Plymouth and Exeter, Labour is in the running in very few constituencies down here. How many Labour supporters are willing to vote tactically for the Lib Dems just to oust the Tories could potentially decide the fate of many Tory MPs down here. |
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Post by patman post on Dec 26, 2022 19:14:51 GMT
The Tories deserve a good kicking after Cameron’s inept handling of the In-Out referendum, May’s inability to operate, Johnson’s lying and disastrous leadership over Covid, and the imposition of Thick Lizzie.
I hope they learn their lesson quickly before the next election or, if not, Labour are able to put together a competent team to bring the U.K. back to its senses…
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Post by vlk on Dec 26, 2022 19:41:09 GMT
People always say that if, or almost certainly when, Scotland becomes independent and goes away as its own country what is then left of the UK would always be Tory.
The USA will become a one party-state at some point because of identity politics. However, fortunately identity politics is not so deeply ingrained in the UK as it is in the USA. There's always the getting fed up with the same faces-factor at play in the UK.
Blair won England in 1997 and in 2001. He lost England in 2005 but Wales and Scotland saved him his job. However, a rump-UK wouldn't be a Tory-state forever.
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Post by borchester on Dec 26, 2022 20:15:46 GMT
The problem is that no one can honestly offer anything better because they will inherit the same situation. Sure, they'll blame the Tories, Brexit etc. But the fact is that inflation is raging across Europe as is the energy crisis. There is no magic formula whoever is in charge. True
As a general rule I think that when in doubt one should kick the current set of rascals out and let a fresh set of rascals in. And I can't see Smirking Sunak as any great loss, so while Starmer may not be much of an improvement, I can't see him as being in anyway worse. But if Sir Stodge has any brilliant schemes to cure the nation's woes, I can't see what they are.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 26, 2022 20:38:31 GMT
People always say that if, or almost certainly when, Scotland becomes independent and goes away as its own country what is then left of the UK would always be Tory. The USA will become a one party-state at some point because of identity politics. However, fortunately identity politics is not so deeply ingrained in the UK as it is in the USA. There's always the getting fed up with the same faces-factor at play in the UK. Blair won England in 1997 and in 2001. He lost England in 2005 but Wales and Scotland saved him his job. However, a rump-UK wouldn't be a Tory-state forever. It is indeed worth pointing out that in most elections including and since 1945, the party that won the general election also won in England. It is a myth that Labour cannot win without Scotland. |
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Post by see2 on Dec 26, 2022 20:51:21 GMT
I still think the main problem the Tories have is their choice of Sunak as PM and Hunt as chancellor - these people were installed by the MPs and that's called a coup. With these two in charge they have absolutely no chance of winning the next GE. They'll come a poor second to Labour. However if they had anyone else in charge - AND they started to make a decent fist of controlling migration - they would still beat Labour. The problem Labour has is that the minute they start talking about their actual policies they fall apart. They're as split as the Tories and their policies are even more unpopular. What few Labour policies have been revealed so far have been reasonably popular like the ending of charitable status for private education and diverting the money saved into the state sector. But any policies have been few and far between. But whatever policies Labour do eventually come up with they would struggle to be less popular than the current shite. Besides, Starmer has a proven track record of lying to win elections so is unlikely to promise anything all that unpopular even if he has a bucket load of shite in mind for us all. I suspect Starmer, the least deserving Labour winner I have ever known, will win the next election on a record low turnout. "None of the above" will win by a landslide, but with no MPs under this banner Labour will win by default. My only hope is that the Tories can pull back enough ground to force a hung parliament. And with the aid of their gerrymandering and ID measures designed to make voting difficult for the young and the poor, they might just manage it. Winning by default is far better than repeatedly losing because of repeated foolishness. |
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