|
Post by Baron von Lotsov on Nov 3, 2024 16:09:00 GMT
It looks like they will go the way of the Tories then, but a lot faster. Labour losing the next election badly is certainly a distinct possibility but cannot be predicted with any semblance of certainty this far out. All we can really say this early is that anything is possible, a fact which acts as a canvas upon which we could potentially paint our own hopes, with wishful thinking the primary colours. But I am certain that there will be no election before at least 2028 and probably 2029. And I think the chances of Starmer being ousted by his own MPs this side of an election defeat are slim at best. We are stuck with them for a long while yet, for good or ill. I think there maybe something in crowd psychology where if a thing that the crowd is connected to goes below a certain level of popularity, then it becomes entirely irreversible and any further attempts to carry on wil only enrage the crowd more and more until the message gets through. This is why News of the world was shut down despite it having a long history. Blair and the Iraq war was another example and Johnson tried to hang on for dear life as king of the liars, but it was hopeless. It's the same with ships taking on water.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2024 17:51:06 GMT
Labour losing the next election badly is certainly a distinct possibility but cannot be predicted with any semblance of certainty this far out. All we can really say this early is that anything is possible, a fact which acts as a canvas upon which we could potentially paint our own hopes, with wishful thinking the primary colours. But I am certain that there will be no election before at least 2028 and probably 2029. And I think the chances of Starmer being ousted by his own MPs this side of an election defeat are slim at best. We are stuck with them for a long while yet, for good or ill. I think there maybe something in crowd psychology where if a thing that the crowd is connected to goes below a certain level of popularity, then it becomes entirely irreversible and any further attempts to carry on wil only enrage the crowd more and more until the message gets through. This is why News of the world was shut down despite it having a long history. Blair and the Iraq war was another example and Johnson tried to hang on for dear life as king of the liars, but it was hopeless. It's the same with ships taking on water. Maybe. And I have no love for Starmer and his bunch, though I fear the Tory alternative so much more. But a period of time is usually necessary for something to become set in stone in the public eye and I doubt whether enough time has gone by for that yet. Time will literally tell. I am old enough to remember a time round about 1981 when Thatcher and her Tories were deeply unpopular and had been for over year and the new SDP was winning byelection after by election. Two years later she won a landslide. So I doubt that things can become set in stone so soon, however much some might wish for it.
|
|
|
Post by Fairsociety on Nov 3, 2024 17:54:41 GMT
I think there maybe something in crowd psychology where if a thing that the crowd is connected to goes below a certain level of popularity, then it becomes entirely irreversible and any further attempts to carry on wil only enrage the crowd more and more until the message gets through. This is why News of the world was shut down despite it having a long history. Blair and the Iraq war was another example and Johnson tried to hang on for dear life as king of the liars, but it was hopeless. It's the same with ships taking on water. Maybe. And I have no love for Starmer and his bunch, though I fear the Tory alternative so much more. But a period of time is usually necessary for something to become set in stone in the public eye and I doubt whether enough time has gone by for that yet. Time will literally tell. I am old enough to remember a time round about 1981 when Thatcher and her Tories were deeply unpopular and had been for over year and the new SDP was winning byelection after by election. Two years later she won a landslide. So I doubt that things can become set in stone so soon, however much some might wish for it. I don't care what anyone says no way on this Earth would the Tories have cut the winter fuel allowance for the pensioners.. and I'll tell you why.
The public outrage and backlash would have been catastrophic, Labour would have been the first to condemn them and demonise them, but hey-ho Labour have done the unthinkable and cut the pensioners winter fuel payments .... but it was that nasty blackhole ... oh well that's ok then.
|
|
|
Post by Baron von Lotsov on Nov 3, 2024 18:03:44 GMT
I think there maybe something in crowd psychology where if a thing that the crowd is connected to goes below a certain level of popularity, then it becomes entirely irreversible and any further attempts to carry on wil only enrage the crowd more and more until the message gets through. This is why News of the world was shut down despite it having a long history. Blair and the Iraq war was another example and Johnson tried to hang on for dear life as king of the liars, but it was hopeless. It's the same with ships taking on water. Maybe. And I have no love for Starmer and his bunch, though I fear the Tory alternative so much more. But a period of time is usually necessary for something to become set in stone in the public eye and I doubt whether enough time has gone by for that yet. Time will literally tell. I am old enough to remember a time round about 1981 when Thatcher and her Tories were deeply unpopular and had been for over year and the new SDP was winning byelection after by election. Two years later she won a landslide. So I doubt that things can become set in stone so soon, however much some might wish for it. Yes but Thatcher came back with strong economic figures. She was smart and she worked very hard. I don't think Starmer and his abilities measures up to Thatcher in the slightest. He's said he does not want to work overtime as his family is more important. I mean, yes there is a chance that by some fluke we see 5% GDP growth in 5 years and Labour can crow about it and come storming back, but just unlikely given how they are starting off. They are heavy spenders. The other big difference is this almighty crash in popularity. Most PMs get a minimum of 6m of celebration. Besides if they ddi throw him out we would likely get a worse one.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2024 18:29:53 GMT
Maybe. And I have no love for Starmer and his bunch, though I fear the Tory alternative so much more. But a period of time is usually necessary for something to become set in stone in the public eye and I doubt whether enough time has gone by for that yet. Time will literally tell. I am old enough to remember a time round about 1981 when Thatcher and her Tories were deeply unpopular and had been for over year and the new SDP was winning byelection after by election. Two years later she won a landslide. So I doubt that things can become set in stone so soon, however much some might wish for it. I don't care what anyone says no way on this Earth would the Tories have cut the winter fuel allowance for the pensioners.. and I'll tell you why.
The public outrage and backlash would have been catastrophic, Labour would have been the first to condemn them and demonise them, but hey-ho Labour have done the unthinkable and cut the pensioners winter fuel payments .... but it was that nasty blackhole ... oh well that's ok then.
The cynical reason why the Tories would never have done it is that they heavily relied on the pensioner vote. Labour had little pensioner vote to lose in comparison. It is as simple and as cynical as that,
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2024 18:35:14 GMT
Maybe. And I have no love for Starmer and his bunch, though I fear the Tory alternative so much more. But a period of time is usually necessary for something to become set in stone in the public eye and I doubt whether enough time has gone by for that yet. Time will literally tell. I am old enough to remember a time round about 1981 when Thatcher and her Tories were deeply unpopular and had been for over year and the new SDP was winning byelection after by election. Two years later she won a landslide. So I doubt that things can become set in stone so soon, however much some might wish for it. Yes but Thatcher came back with strong economic figures. She was smart and she worked very hard. I don't think Starmer and his abilities measures up to Thatcher in the slightest. He's said he does not want to work overtime as his family is more important. I mean, yes there is a chance that by some fluke we see 5% GDP growth in 5 years and Labour can crow about it and come storming back, but just unlikely given how they are starting off. They are heavy spenders. The other big difference is this almighty crash in popularity. Most PMs get a minimum of 6m of celebration. Besides if they ddi throw him out we would likely get a worse one. As far as the long term popularity or unpopularity of anyone is concerned - or even their ability or lack thereof - the chickens have not had time to hatch yet so too early to count them. You might prove to be right. You might not. It is too early to tell. And you greatly overrate the abilities of Thatcher, whose standing was actually transformed by the Falklands war, which the prior incompetence of her own government did much to encourage Argentina into launching in the first place.. It has been a constant drain on our resources ever since.
|
|
|
Post by Fairsociety on Nov 3, 2024 18:37:24 GMT
I don't care what anyone says no way on this Earth would the Tories have cut the winter fuel allowance for the pensioners.. and I'll tell you why.
The public outrage and backlash would have been catastrophic, Labour would have been the first to condemn them and demonise them, but hey-ho Labour have done the unthinkable and cut the pensioners winter fuel payments .... but it was that nasty blackhole ... oh well that's ok then.
The cynical reason why the Tories would never have done it is that they heavily relied on the pensioner vote. Labour had little pensioner vote to lose in comparison. It is as simple and as cynical as that, So using your own logic, you must be admitting that Labour punished pensioners because they were 'Tory' voters .......... Wow thanks for clarifying what we already knew.
|
|
|
Post by Baron von Lotsov on Nov 3, 2024 18:38:15 GMT
I don't care what anyone says no way on this Earth would the Tories have cut the winter fuel allowance for the pensioners.. and I'll tell you why.
The public outrage and backlash would have been catastrophic, Labour would have been the first to condemn them and demonise them, but hey-ho Labour have done the unthinkable and cut the pensioners winter fuel payments .... but it was that nasty blackhole ... oh well that's ok then.
The cynical reason why the Tories would never have done it is that they heavily relied on the pensioner vote. Labour had little pensioner vote to lose in comparison. It is as simple and as cynical as that, 20% of people voted Labour and out of those the vast majority gave their main reason as getting rid of the Tories.
|
|
|
Post by Baron von Lotsov on Nov 3, 2024 18:44:43 GMT
Yes but Thatcher came back with strong economic figures. She was smart and she worked very hard. I don't think Starmer and his abilities measures up to Thatcher in the slightest. He's said he does not want to work overtime as his family is more important. I mean, yes there is a chance that by some fluke we see 5% GDP growth in 5 years and Labour can crow about it and come storming back, but just unlikely given how they are starting off. They are heavy spenders. The other big difference is this almighty crash in popularity. Most PMs get a minimum of 6m of celebration. Besides if they ddi throw him out we would likely get a worse one. As far as the long term popularity or unpopularity of anyone is concerned - or even their ability or lack thereof - the chickens have not had time to hatch yet so too early to count them. You might prove to be right. You might not. It is too early to tell. And you greatly overrate the abilities of Thatcher, whose standing was actually transformed by the Falklands war, which the prior incompetence of her own government did much to encourage Argentina into launching in the first place.. It has been a constant drain on our resources ever since. I agree the Falklands were a lot to do with it, but the economy is the traditional number one in this game. It is the only hope Starmer has that he can turn people into thinking that Labour are the party of good economics, the opposite of the traditional view that they crash it. I'm not that hopeful though. It has fundamental weaknesses.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2024 20:08:41 GMT
The cynical reason why the Tories would never have done it is that they heavily relied on the pensioner vote. Labour had little pensioner vote to lose in comparison. It is as simple and as cynical as that, So using your own logic, you must be admitting that Labour punished pensioners because they were 'Tory' voters .......... Wow thanks for clarifying what we already knew. They probably regarded all but the poorest pensioners as a free hit because they were Tory voters so they thought they'd have nothing to lose. As for their motivations I never voted for them anyway so your guess is as good as mine. But if they want to be politically cynical - and typical Labour centrists are nothing if not cynical - and they want to look tough, tis better to curry favour with their own supporters by being tough where they have little support to lose. I am not in any way saying that this is right but it is the way they think. I also remember from my time in the party that there was widespread derision for older non-university educated tabloid readers who were generally regarded as thick. Any desire on the part of Labour to punish older voters is from what I recall of their attitudes whilst rubbing shoulders with them far more likely to be for voting Brexit than voting Tory. Some Labour centrists never forgave them for that. Whether or not such thinking was a factor even at a subconscious level I cannot say with any certainty. No one can. But iI cannot rule it out..
|
|
|
Post by thomas on Nov 3, 2024 20:12:21 GMT
I think there maybe something in crowd psychology where if a thing that the crowd is connected to goes below a certain level of popularity, then it becomes entirely irreversible and any further attempts to carry on wil only enrage the crowd more and more until the message gets through. This is why News of the world was shut down despite it having a long history. Blair and the Iraq war was another example and Johnson tried to hang on for dear life as king of the liars, but it was hopeless. It's the same with ships taking on water. Maybe. And I have no love for Starmer and his bunch, though I fear the Tory alternative so much more. But a period of time is usually necessary for something to become set in stone in the public eye and I doubt whether enough time has gone by for that yet. Time will literally tell. I am old enough to remember a time round about 1981 when Thatcher and her Tories were deeply unpopular and had been for over year and the new SDP was winning byelection after by election. Two years later she won a landslide. So I doubt that things can become set in stone so soon, however much some might wish for it. sorry not buying that at all Steve. You are right as far as you go about how anything can happen , as they say a week being a long time in politics , but wrong to use thatcher and the tories unpopularity in 1981 and compare it to starmer now. The political landscape is massively different , and of course, you once again cant think outside the two party box when you talk of having no love for starmer , but hating the tory alternative more. We are in a multi party system now Steve , like it or not , and both tory and labours vote share at its lowest ebb in modern history. You also discount the fact however much you dislike thatcher , she won the popular vote in 1979 taking nearly 4 million votes more than starmer did 45 years later , and she did that off the back of a much smaller uk electorate. Badenoch may improve the tories standing , im not sure , but I think Farage will hammer both tory and labour . While your analogy about anything can happen to starmers enemies over the course of the next 5 years rings true , it also works both ways. Thatcher had a core support of circa 13 million conservatives backing her over the course of her three electoral victories , I doubt nearly half a century later , starmer has a core labour support of even half that backing him. Unlike thatcher and blair , starmers problem is he has no real mandate to govern.
|
|
|
Post by thomas on Nov 3, 2024 20:20:33 GMT
So using your own logic, you must be admitting that Labour punished pensioners because they were 'Tory' voters .......... Wow thanks for clarifying what we already knew. They probably regarded all but the poorest pensioners as a free hit because they were Tory voters so they thought they'd have nothing to lose. As for their motivations I never voted for them anyway so your guess is as good as mine. But if they want to be politically cynical - and typical Labour centrists are nothing if not cynical - and they want to look tough, tis better to curry favour with their own supporters by being tough where they have little support to lose. I am not in any way saying that this is right but it is the way they think. Your free hit on tory voting pensioners may or may not hold some water in england. but not in scotland. Labour look bad to the elderly in scotland , most of whom once upon a time voted for them , and the snp , lousy as they are under swinney , have an open goal waiting for them as we approach the next Holyrood election , with plans being made to mitigate labours winter fuel payment cut in scotland. Contrast that with labour unpopularity with the young Scottish , and the fear if they get in , they will impose the much hated English tuition fees on Scottish students , among much else. is this the new labour centrist cynicism you are talking about in action? long may Morgan mcsweenys cynicism keep labour on the downward path. Keep in mind the tories have had a disastrous recent tenure, virtually leaderless until now , bitterly divided , and yet they are now polling ahead of starmers labour , with even badenoch being seen as slightly more favourable with uk voters than starmer. fucking brilliant.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2024 20:25:00 GMT
The cynical reason why the Tories would never have done it is that they heavily relied on the pensioner vote. Labour had little pensioner vote to lose in comparison. It is as simple and as cynical as that, 20% of people voted Labour and out of those the vast majority gave their main reason as getting rid of the Tories. Yes and even fewer voted for any of the other parties. None of the above was the clear winner. And yes, Labour's huge majority and the large increase in Lib Dem MPs were both born of the same phenomenon. Tactical voting against the Tories by voting for whoever was best placed to defeat them. There was relatively little positive support for Labour - or the Lib Dems for that matter - just a desire to be rid of the Tories at any cost. Of course things were made even worse for the Tories by Reform doing so much damage to what was left of their vote. In many places they took enough votes away from the Tories to deny them victory without gaining enough to win themselves, gifting seats to Labour that the Tories might otherwise have held. My own seat of Plymouth Moorview is a typical example where the combined vote of the Tories and Reform - who came second and third respectively - was comfortably larger than that of the Labour winner. Were it not for Reform. Johnny Mercer the sitting Tory would most likely have won. This pattern was repeated all over the place. Labour thus largely has Reform to thank for the massive size of it's majority. Were it not for them, the Tories would have held many more seats and Labour's majority would have been far smaller. When you also factor in anti-SNP tactical voting in Scotland which I suspect is a one off, the cards couldn't have been stacked more in Starmer's favour if he had dealt them himself.
|
|
|
Post by thomas on Nov 3, 2024 20:27:34 GMT
20% of people voted Labour and out of those the vast majority gave their main reason as getting rid of the Tories. Yes and even fewer voted for any of the other parties. None of the above was the clear winner. Thats right. So labour got a third of the turnout , and should have got a third of the seats not two thirds ,which is the point many people are pissed off about.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2024 20:31:37 GMT
Maybe. And I have no love for Starmer and his bunch, though I fear the Tory alternative so much more. But a period of time is usually necessary for something to become set in stone in the public eye and I doubt whether enough time has gone by for that yet. Time will literally tell. I am old enough to remember a time round about 1981 when Thatcher and her Tories were deeply unpopular and had been for over year and the new SDP was winning byelection after by election. Two years later she won a landslide. So I doubt that things can become set in stone so soon, however much some might wish for it. sorry not buying that at all Steve. You are right as far as you go about how anything can happen , as they say a week being a long time in politics , but wrong to use thatcher and the tories unpopularity in 1981 and compare it to starmer now. The political landscape is massively different , and of course, you once again cant think outside the two party box when you talk of having no love for starmer , but hating the tory alternative more. We are in a multi party system now Steve , like it or not , and both tory and labours vote share at its lowest ebb in modern history. You also discount the fact however much you dislike thatcher , she won the popular vote in 1979 taking nearly 4 million votes more than starmer did 45 years later , and she did that off the back of a much smaller uk electorate. Badenoch may improve the tories standing , im not sure , but I think Farage will hammer both tory and labour . While your analogy about anything can happen to starmers enemies over the course of the next 5 years rings true , it also works both ways. Thatcher had a core support of circa 13 million conservatives backing her over the course of her three electoral victories , I doubt nearly half a century later , starmer has a core labour support of even half that backing him. Unlike thatcher and blair , starmers problem is he has no real mandate to govern. I know our politics is much more multi-party than it was decades back, but at Westminster at least it is still somewhat constricted by the FPTP stitch up. Has it escaped you attention that I did not vote for either Labour or Tory? And voted Green instead? It is not illegitimate however to have the view that Labour might at least be a lesser evil than the Tories, regardless of whom else I might actually support and vote for. I can certainly remember you saying much the reverse, that the Tories are a lesser evil than Labour. None of which of course means that either of us actually support either.
|
|