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Post by Pacifico on Jul 25, 2024 21:41:36 GMT
But they absolutely lapped up Liz Truss putting people's mortgages up, the cost of living crisis, crumbling (literally in some cases) schools and NHS, partygate and Tory incompetence and corruption? What members of the public had the opportunity to vote on the decisions of Liz Truss? The election was between the left of centre Government of Rishi Sunak and the left of centre government of Keir Starmer. |
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Post by Pacifico on Jul 25, 2024 21:47:06 GMT
Ever asked yourself whether Truss wasn’t the whole of the narrative ? Or maybe , just maybe that a Starmer ‘ romped home’ because the Tories failed to achieve any of the right wing rhetoric that it promised ? Or maybe the Tories were led by politicians that had no idea how to achieve the promises that they made to the electorate? Have you ever asked yourself that? See I can do that .🙄 If the Tories lost because they were not Right Wing enough you would expect a lot more of their votes, and so seats, to have gone to Reform. Instead they want to the Liberals and Labour. Reform got (many) more votes than the LibDems who have been around for over 150 years - Reform only existing for 6 years. How much better are you expecting them to do? |
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Post by ProVeritas on Jul 25, 2024 22:36:58 GMT
If the Tories lost because they were not Right Wing enough you would expect a lot more of their votes, and so seats, to have gone to Reform. Instead they want to the Liberals and Labour. Reform got (many) more votes than the LibDems who have been around for over 150 years - Reform only existing for 6 years. How much better are you expecting them to do? We've had this discussion before. In a FPTP system "votes" in and of themselves mean nothing. Seats mean everything. Yes, there are problems with FPTP, I've been advocating for PR for half my life, All The Best |
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Post by happyhornet3 on Jul 26, 2024 6:22:08 GMT
But they absolutely lapped up Liz Truss putting people's mortgages up, the cost of living crisis, crumbling (literally in some cases) schools and NHS, partygate and Tory incompetence and corruption? What members of the public had the opportunity to vote on the decisions of Liz Truss? The election was between the left of centre Government of Rishi Sunak and the left of centre government of Keir Starmer. They had the chance to make their displeasure at Liz Truss and the numerous other Tory failures known at the ballot box and boy did they. Are you seriously going to argue that for example the cost of living crisis didn't lose the Tories one single vote? |
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Post by happyhornet3 on Jul 26, 2024 6:25:08 GMT
Reform got (many) more votes than the LibDems who have been around for over 150 years - Reform only existing for 6 years. How much better are you expecting them to do? We've had this discussion before. In a FPTP system "votes" in and of themselves mean nothing. Seats mean everything. Yes, there are problems with FPTP, I've been advocating for PR for half my life, All The Best Precisely, it's a results business, saying your side would have won or done better under a different system is like a football fan who's team just got tonked 5-0 saying that really they won because they had more possession and corners. |
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Post by Pacifico on Jul 26, 2024 7:00:07 GMT
We've had this discussion before. In a FPTP system "votes" in and of themselves mean nothing. Seats mean everything. Yes, there are problems with FPTP, I've been advocating for PR for half my life, All The Best Precisely, it's a results business, saying your side would have won or done better under a different system is like a football fan who's team just got tonked 5-0 saying that really they won because they had more possession and corners. Ye gods - try and keep up. The post I replied to said this: "If the Tories lost because they were not Right Wing enough you would expect a lot more of their votes, and so seats, to have gone to Reform."and as I pointed out - a lot of their votes did go to Reform. Far more than went to the other parties who were promising more left-wing policies. Yes, Reform didn't get many seats - but that had nothing to do with how many Tories voted for them - it was a function of the electoral system. Who should the disgruntled Tories have voted for if not for Reform? |
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Post by Pacifico on Jul 26, 2024 7:02:30 GMT
What members of the public had the opportunity to vote on the decisions of Liz Truss? The election was between the left of centre Government of Rishi Sunak and the left of centre government of Keir Starmer. They had the chance to make their displeasure at Liz Truss and the numerous other Tory failures known at the ballot box and boy did they. Are you seriously going to argue that for example the cost of living crisis didn't lose the Tories one single vote? Yes, of course their policy failures did - I already have said that. What those policy failures did not do was to convince them to vote for Labour/LibDem in any large number. If you were unhappy with those policies why would you vote for parties promising more of the same? |
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Post by happyhornet3 on Jul 26, 2024 7:59:41 GMT
Precisely, it's a results business, saying your side would have won or done better under a different system is like a football fan who's team just got tonked 5-0 saying that really they won because they had more possession and corners. Ye gods - try and keep up. The post I replied to said this: "If the Tories lost because they were not Right Wing enough you would expect a lot more of their votes, and so seats, to have gone to Reform."and as I pointed out - a lot of their votes did go to Reform. Far more than went to the other parties who were promising more left-wing policies. Yes, Reform didn't get many seats - but that had nothing to do with how many Tories voted for them - it was a function of the electoral system. Who should the disgruntled Tories have voted for if not for Reform? According to your figures posted earlier in this thread 2019 Tory voters who were polled 18% voted Reform or didn't vote at all is that correct? |
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Post by happyhornet3 on Jul 26, 2024 8:01:10 GMT
They had the chance to make their displeasure at Liz Truss and the numerous other Tory failures known at the ballot box and boy did they. Are you seriously going to argue that for example the cost of living crisis didn't lose the Tories one single vote? Yes, of course their policy failures did - I already have said that. What those policy failures did not do was to convince them to vote for Labour/LibDem in any large number. If you were unhappy with those policies why would you vote for parties promising more of the same? Their failures caused them not to vote Conservative, the Tories moving further to the right wouldn't have eliminated those policy failures. |
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Post by ProVeritas on Jul 26, 2024 9:01:56 GMT
Precisely, it's a results business, saying your side would have won or done better under a different system is like a football fan who's team just got tonked 5-0 saying that really they won because they had more possession and corners. Ye gods - try and keep up. The post I replied to said this: "If the Tories lost because they were not Right Wing enough you would expect a lot more of their votes, and so seats, to have gone to Reform."and as I pointed out - a lot of their votes did go to Reform. Far more than went to the other parties who were promising more left-wing policies. Yes, Reform didn't get many seats - but that had nothing to do with how many Tories voted for them - it was a function of the electoral system. Who should the disgruntled Tories have voted for if not for Reform? You missed the " and so seats" bit. Do I really need to explain how this works? Reform got more votes than the Libs. However, Reform's votes were so thinly distributed across the entire country that they only won a handful of seats. The Libs got less votes than Reform. However, the vast majority of their support was concentrated in "target seats" allowing them to win way more seats than Reform. There are, IMO, two failures that led to this: 1) A failure of genuine representation inherent in the FPTP system. 2) A failure of strategic thinking on behalf of Reform. My guess is Farage was so used to thinking in terms of a PR voting system, where you just need to build a degree of momentum to win votes, that he forgot (or failed to understand) that in a FPTP system not only you need that same momentum you also MUST target it very specifically at "winnable seats". All The Best |
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Post by dappy on Jul 26, 2024 9:59:13 GMT
The burning question for the Tory party is of course - if we become reform, perhaps we can gain back some or all of the Reform voters but how many of our existing voters do we lose and can we win back those who moved towards Lib or Lab. Is there 40% of the electorate to enable us to win an election in that direction? My instinct is that would be a mistake for them but not really my fight.
My question is looking at the existing candidates - I can’t honestly say they feel very inspiring. Patel, Jenrick, Badenoch, Tugendhat , Cleverly - all the same old failed bunch and Mel Stride ffs. I can’t help wondering if they wouldn’t be better skipping this generation and seeing if they can find a bright young unknown thing amongst the newbies.
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Post by Pacifico on Jul 26, 2024 11:15:40 GMT
Ye gods - try and keep up. The post I replied to said this: "If the Tories lost because they were not Right Wing enough you would expect a lot more of their votes, and so seats, to have gone to Reform."and as I pointed out - a lot of their votes did go to Reform. Far more than went to the other parties who were promising more left-wing policies. Yes, Reform didn't get many seats - but that had nothing to do with how many Tories voted for them - it was a function of the electoral system. Who should the disgruntled Tories have voted for if not for Reform? According to your figures posted earlier in this thread 2019 Tory voters who were polled 18% voted Reform or didn't vote at all is that correct? yes - so who should they have voted for? |
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Post by Pacifico on Jul 26, 2024 11:17:54 GMT
Yes, of course their policy failures did - I already have said that. What those policy failures did not do was to convince them to vote for Labour/LibDem in any large number. If you were unhappy with those policies why would you vote for parties promising more of the same? Their failures caused them not to vote Conservative, the Tories moving further to the right wouldn't have eliminated those policy failures. Reducing legal and illegal immigration, cheaper energy and ending the Lefts culture wars would not have eliminated their failures in those areas? - are you sure? |
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Post by Pacifico on Jul 26, 2024 11:20:29 GMT
Ye gods - try and keep up. The post I replied to said this: "If the Tories lost because they were not Right Wing enough you would expect a lot more of their votes, and so seats, to have gone to Reform."and as I pointed out - a lot of their votes did go to Reform. Far more than went to the other parties who were promising more left-wing policies. Yes, Reform didn't get many seats - but that had nothing to do with how many Tories voted for them - it was a function of the electoral system. Who should the disgruntled Tories have voted for if not for Reform? You missed the " and so seats" bit. Do I really need to explain how this works? Reform got more votes than the Libs. However, Reform's votes were so thinly distributed across the entire country that they only won a handful of seats. The Libs got less votes than Reform. However, the vast majority of their support was concentrated in "target seats" allowing them to win way more seats than Reform. There are, IMO, two failures that led to this: 1) A failure of genuine representation inherent in the FPTP system. 2) A failure of strategic thinking on behalf of Reform. My guess is Farage was so used to thinking in terms of a PR voting system, where you just need to build a degree of momentum to win votes, that he forgot (or failed to understand) that in a FPTP system not only you need that same momentum you also MUST target it very specifically at "winnable seats". All The Best The system we have is the system we have - you can only vote for what is on offer. Those disgruntled Tories who were unhappy were spread across the Nation - so they could either vote reform or stay at home. Which is precisely what they did. The numbers of seats gained do not represent their level of support. |
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Post by Pacifico on Jul 26, 2024 11:21:52 GMT
The burning question for the Tory party is of course - if we become reform, perhaps we can gain back some or all of the Reform voters but how many of our existing voters do we lose and can we win back those who moved towards Lib or Lab. Is there 40% of the electorate to enable us to win an election in that direction? My instinct is that would be a mistake for them but not really my fight. My question is looking at the existing candidates - I can’t honestly say they feel very inspiring. Patel, Jenrick, Badenoch, Tugendhat , Cleverly - all the same old failed bunch and Mel Stride ffs. I can’t help wondering if they wouldn’t be better skipping this generation and seeing if they can find a bright young unknown thing amongst the newbies. How is chasing the centre-left portion of the electorate working out for the Tories so far? |
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