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Post by jonksy on Jun 18, 2024 4:57:07 GMT
Chinese property prices fell at their fastest pace in a decade last month, fuelling fears over the health of the world’s second-largest economy. Prices for new homes were down 0.7pc month-on-month in May, in what was the biggest monthly slump since October 2014, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
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Post by Baron von Lotsov on Jun 18, 2024 9:49:12 GMT
Chinese property prices fell at their fastest pace in a decade last month, fuelling fears over the health of the world’s second-largest economy. Prices for new homes were down 0.7pc month-on-month in May, in what was the biggest monthly slump since October 2014, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
Yeah well what was going on in the property sector was it became a speculative market where you could not lose. You buy a place and in a few years it is worth double. This is known as a property bubble, as per how the UK house market is but worse.
Like any bubble, it is a market distortion, and if left to its own devices would fall off the top of a cliff at some point and unfairly penalise random people. There is no logic to a bubble and it is harmful to the economy. It's like a false investment. As an investor you might choose to invest in a science firm and get 5% return, but say property was giving you 10% then that would make you direct investment in property, but that investment was never a real 10%, rather it was 10% and then -90% at some random time. This means in the end you never went for the best investment and capitalism breaks down.
What happened in China was there was certainly a bubble, but the government were happy to let it run, and it would have done, except during covid the economy went tits up and unbalanced what was a finely balanced investment scheme. This caused a crash prematurely, although just as it was crashing the state wadded in and did some heavy duty intervention in the market, as per a kind of partial bailout but also a change in the rules to prevent such a thing happening again. In a way this was a similar thing to our 2008 crash. We all got burnt, but the economy was falsely presented prior to the crash. It was never as good as the figures reported in 2007.
So anyway, now the state owns a fair bit more property than it had figured on owning and many places are only half built, but in national terms this was a hit on overall performance of the economy. We are now past that point, the hit has happened and now things are recovering. The state's tactic was a slow deflation of the bubble through financially engineering it.
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Post by jonksy on Jun 18, 2024 9:55:24 GMT
Chinese property prices fell at their fastest pace in a decade last month, fuelling fears over the health of the world’s second-largest economy. Prices for new homes were down 0.7pc month-on-month in May, in what was the biggest monthly slump since October 2014, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
Yeah well what was going on in the property sector was it became a speculative market where you could not lose. You buy a place and in a few years it is worth double. This is known as a property bubble, as per how the UK house market is but worse.
Like any bubble, it is a market distortion, and if left to its own devices would fall off the top of a cliff at some point and unfairly penalise random people. There is no logic to a bubble and it is harmful to the economy. It's like a false investment. As an investor you might choose to invest in a science firm and get 5% return, but say property was giving you 10% then that would make you direct investment in property, but that investment was never a real 10%, rather it was 10% and then -90% at some random time. This means in the end you never went for the best investment and capitalism breaks down.
What happened in China was there was certainly a bubble, but the government were happy to let it run, and it would have done, except during covid the economy went tits up and unbalanced what was a finely balanced investment scheme. This caused a crash prematurely, although just as it was crashing the state wadded in and did some heavy duty intervention in the market, as per a kind of partial bailout but also a change in the rules to prevent such a thing happening again. In a way this was a similar thing to our 2008 crash. We all got burnt, but the economy was falsely presented prior to the crash. It was never as good as the figures reported in 2007.
So anyway, now the state owns a fair bit more property than it had figured on owning and many places are only half built, but in national terms this was a hit on overall performance of the economy. We are now past that point, the hit has happened and now things are recovering. The state's tactic was a slow deflation of the bubble through financially engineering it.
Stop praising China bvl it not the land of milk and honey. |
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Post by Baron von Lotsov on Jun 18, 2024 10:25:12 GMT
Yeah well what was going on in the property sector was it became a speculative market where you could not lose. You buy a place and in a few years it is worth double. This is known as a property bubble, as per how the UK house market is but worse.
Like any bubble, it is a market distortion, and if left to its own devices would fall off the top of a cliff at some point and unfairly penalise random people. There is no logic to a bubble and it is harmful to the economy. It's like a false investment. As an investor you might choose to invest in a science firm and get 5% return, but say property was giving you 10% then that would make you direct investment in property, but that investment was never a real 10%, rather it was 10% and then -90% at some random time. This means in the end you never went for the best investment and capitalism breaks down.
What happened in China was there was certainly a bubble, but the government were happy to let it run, and it would have done, except during covid the economy went tits up and unbalanced what was a finely balanced investment scheme. This caused a crash prematurely, although just as it was crashing the state wadded in and did some heavy duty intervention in the market, as per a kind of partial bailout but also a change in the rules to prevent such a thing happening again. In a way this was a similar thing to our 2008 crash. We all got burnt, but the economy was falsely presented prior to the crash. It was never as good as the figures reported in 2007.
So anyway, now the state owns a fair bit more property than it had figured on owning and many places are only half built, but in national terms this was a hit on overall performance of the economy. We are now past that point, the hit has happened and now things are recovering. The state's tactic was a slow deflation of the bubble through financially engineering it.
Stop praising China bvl it not the land of milk and honey. I waste my time with you. You don't have the intelligence to understand economics. The links you provide only give you a propagandist's view of the situation, and so all your projections will be wrong. Indeed you can't explain it yourself, hence why you rely on these links to do your thinking for you. You are outsourcing your brain to unreliable third parties. |
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Post by jonksy on Jun 18, 2024 13:36:12 GMT
Stop praising China bvl it not the land of milk and honey. You don't have the intelligence to understand economics. The links you provide only give you a propagandist's view of the situation, and so all your projections will be wrong. Indeed you can't explain it yourself, hence why you rely on these links to do your thinking for you. You are outsourcing your brain to unreliable third parties. No I waste my time on you bvl.....If you think china is so fucking good why don't you piss off there and see for yorself. China's economy is a car crash...And as for my links they are from the liks of he IMF etc which you cannot dispute so you resort to make any old shit up to suit your pro Chinese ideology... |
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Post by Baron von Lotsov on Jun 18, 2024 13:45:55 GMT
I waste my time with you. You don't have the intelligence to understand economics. The links you provide only give you a propagandist's view of the situation, and so all your projections will be wrong. Indeed you can't explain it yourself, hence why you rely on these links to do your thinking for you. You are outsourcing your brain to unreliable third parties. No I waste my time on you bvl.....If you think china is so fucking good why don't you piss off there and see for yorself. China's economy is a car crash...And as for my links they are from the liks of he IMF etc which you cannot dispute so you resort to make any old shit up to suit your pro Chinese ideology... The idea of good is highly subjective. It does not matter what my subjective view is. What I'm basing my economic assessments on is simply economic data and an understanding of how their industrial strategy works. My assessments have stood the test of time, and been more accurate than the US media's view, so I will stick with my own research. People over in China know what I do. The problem is this knowledge hardly makes its way to determine popular Western opinion. What you will see in the next few years is the rise of the intelligent robots. I've seen what they have in the labs. |
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Post by patman post on Jun 18, 2024 14:34:33 GMT
I/we will keep your recommendations in mind. But we’ve only been letting furnished to corporates since 2017/18 and nothing (apart from a previously installed Hotpoint washing machine) has needed to be replaced. In our own residence we have Beko oven and hop, Bosch dishwasher, Hisense fridge freezer (replacement 4 years ago for a bit of Servis branded rubbish), and an LG washing machine. For us, it all comes down to appeal and amortisation and costings… A lot of fridges and freezers these days will not work under 10C because the refrigerant starts liquefying and it can destroy the compressor. The original refrigerant used was OK, but due to the ozone scare the replacements have caused a lot of trouble. For some reason the Liebherr ones work down to -15C. They are rated at C energy efficiency on the new EU scale where nearly every other make is right at the worst performing end of the scale. I've no idea how they do it, but I know they have a trick the others don't have. Actually I watched a documentary about the history of that firm. They grew from nothing into a giant corporation, which is very impressive. Goods are often made for the areas of the world they're to be operated in. I remember the advice, not to take Fridges among household goods, that was given to my sister and brother-in-law when they moved from London to New South Wales.
Fashion can also play a part. I noticed large top-loading washing machines were popular in Oz with cold-water washing. Smaller top-loaders seem to be still popular in France. Larger top loaders (15-22 kg) and twin tubs are favourites in Guyana...
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Post by Baron von Lotsov on Jun 18, 2024 16:01:57 GMT
A lot of fridges and freezers these days will not work under 10C because the refrigerant starts liquefying and it can destroy the compressor. The original refrigerant used was OK, but due to the ozone scare the replacements have caused a lot of trouble. For some reason the Liebherr ones work down to -15C. They are rated at C energy efficiency on the new EU scale where nearly every other make is right at the worst performing end of the scale. I've no idea how they do it, but I know they have a trick the others don't have. Actually I watched a documentary about the history of that firm. They grew from nothing into a giant corporation, which is very impressive. Goods are often made for the areas of the world they're to be operated in. I remember the advice, not to take Fridges among household goods, that was given to my sister and brother-in-law when they moved from London to New South Wales.
Fashion can also play a part. I noticed large top-loading washing machines were popular in Oz with cold-water washing. Smaller top-loaders seem to be still popular in France. Larger top loaders (15-22 kg) and twin tubs are favourites in Guyana...
I still regard the Germans as one of the best for mechanical engineering. The Swiss are top as well, but they tend to specialise in precision engineering and are extremely expensive as well. The thing is one piece of steel is not the same as another and so much of the quality comes from using high quality steel and it is here where the Chinese, being new to the game, were unable to match the quality. I understand they have been working on this in their labs so now claim to have super steel sussed. This is for jet engines though. The UK can do good steel as well, so in my mind a bit of collaboration would help both us and them. If we get our steel making act together again we can produce cheap quality raw materials to support local manufacturing. The trick here is in vertical integration in order to reduce overall costs. |
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