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Post by zanygame on Oct 13, 2022 20:12:08 GMT
I wouldn't write off Reform UK just yet. I seem to remember people and indeed politicians laughing at UKIP. Reform UK is as yet a relatively unknown quantity, but I think it will slowly gain traction due to people, mainly Conservatives, becoming increasingly frustrated with the political status quo. For example, I just heard that behind the scenes there are serious moves afoot to remove Liz Truss as prime minister! I mean, you really couldn't make it up. The Conservatives seem hell bent on destroying themselves, and that will only benefit Reform UK. I think its more a case of no knowing which way turn. Boris was good for the party and its a shame he ballsed things up. In the end I couldn't decide if anything Boris did was planned or just to get more likes on twitter. I think the Tories need a term in opposition to sort themselves out |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 13, 2022 21:46:49 GMT
Annalyse the polling data - in MOST of the country, the vast majority of dissafected Tory voters intend to switch to Keir Starmer's Labour.
HOWEVER - There is something called "The Blue Wall", a set of Southern English seats which are vulnerable for the Tories. Of the 42 such seats ranging from East Anglia in the East, across to Cornwall in the West, and according to research by Redfield & Wilton Strategies (October 12th), an election tomorrow would look like this ...
LAB: 25 (+25)
LDM: 10 (+10)
CON: 7 (-35)
Changes w/ GE2019 PRETTY ASTONISHING STUFF
There appears to be no interest in any political party of the Populist Right / UKIP / REform etc
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 13, 2022 23:46:06 GMT
There appears to be no interest in any political party of the Populist Right / UKIP / REform etc Why would that be the case? There seems to be plenty of alt-right appetite in the UK. |
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Post by Red Rackham on Oct 14, 2022 6:38:17 GMT
Unless a general election is called within the next few weeks today's polls are irrelevant, and clearly there won't be an election within the next few weeks. The parliamentary conservative party are stupid, but they're not that stupid. Having said that, Liz Truss could do a John Major and give the PCP an ultimatum; back me or I'll call an election.
There's no doubt that Conservative voters, like me, are annoyed with the party particularly the 1922 committee who appear to be acting more like a politburo than a behind the scenes calming influence, but any talk of a majority of conservative voters voting for Starmer is for the birds it's nonsense, it's nothing more than left wing wishful thinking.
Anyone who thinks there is no interest in a centre right/right wing party in this country is talking nonsense. The centre right is on the move across Europe, the UK is no different. If there was a general election tomorrow, the best Labour could hope for is a coalition government which is pretty remarkable given the cock up that the Conservative party is at the moment. The fact is, and it is a fact, the majority of people in this country may be annoyed with the Tories, but they do not want a left wing Labour government.
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Post by Red Rackham on Oct 14, 2022 7:09:01 GMT
I wouldn't write off Reform UK just yet. I seem to remember people and indeed politicians laughing at UKIP. Reform UK is as yet a relatively unknown quantity, but I think it will slowly gain traction due to people, mainly Conservatives, becoming increasingly frustrated with the political status quo. For example, I just heard that behind the scenes there are serious moves afoot to remove Liz Truss as prime minister! I mean, you really couldn't make it up. The Conservatives seem hell bent on destroying themselves, and that will only benefit Reform UK. I think its more a case of no knowing which way turn. Boris was good for the party and its a shame he ballsed things up. In the end I couldn't decide if anything Boris did was planned or just to get more likes on twitter. I think the Tories need a term in opposition to sort themselves out Well you say Boris 'ballsed things up', I tend to disagree. In removing an elected party leader and prime minister the Parliamentary Conservative Party and 1922 Committe ballsed things up. Only the electorate should have the power to remove a democratically elected prime minister. In my opinion the Tories, or the PCP led by the 1922 Committe, are acting like a politburo. They got rid of a popular prime minister who was elected to office with a huge majority, now just weeks later they are planning to get rid of his replacement. The PCP and Sir Graham Brady are doing more damage to this government and Conservative party than Starmer could have ever hoped for. |
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Reform UK
Oct 14, 2022 7:09:10 GMT
via mobile
Post by andrewbrown on Oct 14, 2022 7:09:10 GMT
Unless a general election is called within the next few weeks today's polls are irrelevant, and clearly there won't be an election within the next few weeks. The parliamentary conservative party are stupid, but they're not that stupid. Having said that, Liz Truss could do a John Major and give the PCP an ultimatum; back me or I'll call an election. There's no doubt that Conservative voters, like me, are annoyed with the party particularly the 1922 committee who appear to be acting more like a politburo than a behind the scenes calming influence, but any talk of a majority of conservative voters voting for Starmer is for the birds it's nonsense, it's nothing more than left wing wishful thinking. Anyone who thinks there is no interest in a centre right/right wing party in this country is talking nonsense. The centre right is on the move across Europe, the UK is no different. If there was a general election tomorrow, the best Labour could hope for is a coalition government which is pretty remarkable given the cock up that the Conservative party is at the moment. The fact is, and it is a fact, the majority of people in this country may be annoyed with the Tories, but they do not want a left wing Labour government. If there was a VONC, I'm not sure the government would survive and that could lead to a general election? I'd also question your assumption that the best Labour could hope for is a coalition. Polling suggests that's not true, so I'm wondering why you think that? |
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Post by Red Rackham on Oct 14, 2022 7:24:56 GMT
There's no appetite for a left wing Labour government in this country. Yes Labour will always have supporters but not enough to give them outright victory in a general election. Left wing Labour politicians on picket lines and demanding that 'refugees' from France should be welcomed in this country, is not a good look, and although Starmer says he's changed, people will never forget that for three years after the referendum he fought tooth & nail to keep this country in the EU and for a second referendum and come the next general election, I'm sure the Tory publicity machine will make the most of it.
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Post by Toreador on Oct 14, 2022 8:01:23 GMT
Doomed to failure. Hasn't got a flair leader (which Farage was), hasn't got a sufficiently unifying cause (that Brexit was), doomed by the undemocratic first past the post system and hasn't got the pseudo PR European elections that enabled UKIP to get serious attention. No tears from me about that party but the system that gives their voice no chance is very wrongElectoral change is one of their policies. |
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Post by Steve on Oct 14, 2022 10:20:36 GMT
Doomed to failure. Hasn't got a flair leader (which Farage was), hasn't got a sufficiently unifying cause (that Brexit was), doomed by the undemocratic first past the post system and hasn't got the pseudo PR European elections that enabled UKIP to get serious attention. No tears from me about that party but the system that gives their voice no chance is very wrongElectoral change is one of their policies. As it was UKIP's But the problem is that the UK electorate overwhelmingly rejected change in that 2011 referendum. As the phrase goes 'no one go poor underestimating the voting public' |
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Reform UK
Oct 14, 2022 11:28:32 GMT
via mobile
Post by andrewbrown on Oct 14, 2022 11:28:32 GMT
They rejected Alternative Vote. If it was Proportional Representation we may have seen a different conversation.
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Post by Steve on Oct 14, 2022 12:00:06 GMT
They rejected Alternative Vote. If it was Proportional Representation we may have seen a different conversation. No, that would have got even more robustly rejected. The whole debate on that referendum was about the benefits of fairer representation over the benefits of clear majority governments The public decided, wrongly IMHO but it was a fair vote and a fair campaign |
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baff
Junior Member
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Post by baff on Oct 14, 2022 12:00:38 GMT
I think the Tories need a term in opposition to sort themselves out I agree. I also think all the other parties need more than one. |
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Reform UK
Oct 14, 2022 12:37:29 GMT
via mobile
Post by dappy on Oct 14, 2022 12:37:29 GMT
Essentially Truss and Reform share the same views. Farage couldn’t praise the failed minibudget enough. The ideas have crashed and burned at first contact with the real world.
Hard to see Reform ever winning a seat under FPTP but they speak for a small subsection of the electorate and deserve a voice if they can cross a threshold - say 5%. I think the case for PR is becoming more and more compelling.
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Post by Handyman on Oct 14, 2022 14:15:12 GMT
If you spoil your Ballot Paper nobody will know why or care, they just count them and that is it I've been involved in counting the votes. Each spoilt ballot is carefully examined and scrutinised to ensure that it cannot be attributed to one of the candidates. If some "guidance for government" is written thereon, it will be seen. Then I have learnt something new, thank you |
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Reform UK
Oct 14, 2022 14:18:01 GMT
via mobile
Post by dappy on Oct 14, 2022 14:18:01 GMT
Talk me through the benefits of clear majority government, steve
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