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Post by andrewbrown on Jan 24, 2024 23:17:01 GMT
The Tories will likely get a kicking but personally I doubt it will be quite this bad, and I think this poll is very flattering for the LibDems who are currently in fourth place behind Reform UK. I think you miss the point, which is made in the article you quote, that this share of the vote would get the LibDems around 40 seats, but would get Reform nothing. This poll is also from a week ago and I believe that YouGov criticised the Telegraph on its interpretation on the effect of Reform. Let me see if I can dig that out. In the meantime, if you want to see the effect of polling on the outcome of a GE, this is a really good website: www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html |
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Post by andrewbrown on Jan 24, 2024 23:30:33 GMT
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Post by dappy on Jan 24, 2024 23:30:40 GMT
Been close in the past but not so much in the last few. Electoral calculus predicts a very narrow LD majority but one of those seats where much depends on to what degree the right vote splits between Tory and Reform and whether the anti Tory vote can get their act together behind one (in this case LD) or whether it splits badly between LD, Labour and Green. I think my money would be slightly on Tory but again more from emotion and electoral memory than examining the current political reality. |
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Post by Red Rackham on Jan 25, 2024 2:08:07 GMT
No kidding, I have family down there. Dorset & Wilts, my son and daughter (Dorset) are centre left, my brother (Wilts) makes Enoch look left wing, lol. |
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Post by Red Rackham on Jan 25, 2024 2:19:52 GMT
The Tories will likely get a kicking but personally I doubt it will be quite this bad, and I think this poll is very flattering for the LibDems who are currently in fourth place behind Reform UK. I think you miss the point, which is made in the article you quote, that this share of the vote would get the LibDems around 40 seats, but would get Reform nothing. This poll is also from a week ago and I believe that YouGov criticised the Telegraph on its interpretation on the effect of Reform. Let me see if I can dig that out. In the meantime, if you want to see the effect of polling on the outcome of a GE, this is a really good website: www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.htmlIt's a poll, I thought it was an interesting graphic. Reform are contesting every Tory seat so who knows what the outcome will be, I think we both know the LibDems aren't going to get 40 seats, we're talking the Commons, not the Lords. |
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Post by andrewbrown on Jan 25, 2024 8:00:06 GMT
I think you miss the point, which is made in the article you quote, that this share of the vote would get the LibDems around 40 seats, but would get Reform nothing. This poll is also from a week ago and I believe that YouGov criticised the Telegraph on its interpretation on the effect of Reform. Let me see if I can dig that out. In the meantime, if you want to see the effect of polling on the outcome of a GE, this is a really good website: www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.htmlIt's a poll, I thought it was an interesting graphic. Reform are contesting every Tory seat so who knows what the outcome will be, I think we both know the LibDems aren't going to get 40 seats, we're talking the Commons, not the Lords. It certainly is interesting, not least because of the size of the sample and the way that they have calculated individual constituencies. |
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Post by Vinny on Jan 27, 2024 12:53:40 GMT
They will see Scotland as a cold and foreboding place. And that'll dispell any romantic notions of Britain being a generous place that gives everyone a house and free money. Greenland is mostly empty. Greenland is a separate country which can say no. Scotland is part of the UK. We should abolish devolution and set up tented refugee camps on currently uninhabited Scottish islands, move the illegals out of five star hotels. |
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Post by Red Rackham on Jan 27, 2024 13:11:07 GMT
Greenland is mostly empty. Greenland is a separate country which can say no. Scotland is part of the UK. We should abolish devolution and set up tented refugee camps on currently uninhabited Scottish islands, move the illegals out of five star hotels. I second the motion. |
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Post by Baron von Lotsov on Jan 27, 2024 13:13:19 GMT
Greenland is mostly empty. Greenland is a separate country which can say no. Scotland is part of the UK. We should abolish devolution and set up tented refugee camps on currently uninhabited Scottish islands, move the illegals out of five star hotels. Yes it is definitely better than living amongst us in hotels. Tents are cheap and can be set up fast, so we can use it as an interim measure before we have the Rwanda plan up and running. Shipping them wholesale back to Africa is the best thing, but I guess we could use these camps here as holding camps before a flight is arranged. |
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Post by bancroft on Jan 28, 2024 18:21:44 GMT
Shy voters will likely determine the election biggest two voting blocks for me are home owners and pensioners with some overlap between the two in a Venn diagram.
Tories will get most of the pensioner vote due to sticking with the triple lock during cost of living increase.
Tories will get most of the homeowner vote too, Labour seen as not economically sound and more ideological then respecting local issues.
Of course I would expect Labour to make gains.
Labour cannot win without Scotland historically,,,,,,,,,
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Post by thomas on Jan 28, 2024 18:27:50 GMT
. Labour cannot win without Scotland historically,,,,,,,,, Not true. All of Blairs victories for example would have been won without a single Scottish vote. I believe only once in uk electoral history has scotland made a difference to a uk general election. |
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Post by bancroft on Jan 28, 2024 18:47:50 GMT
With the exception of Blair, Labour beat the Tories by 15 seats in 1964 and 21 seats in 1974.
I have not included 1945 as too close to the war.
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Post by patman post on Jan 28, 2024 20:00:47 GMT
With the exception of Blair, Labour beat the Tories by 15 seats in 1964 and 21 seats in 1974. I have not included 1945 as too close to the war.As we are now, it would seem… |
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Post by bancroft on Jan 28, 2024 20:22:36 GMT
With the exception of Blair, Labour beat the Tories by 15 seats in 1964 and 21 seats in 1974. I have not included 1945 as too close to the war.As we are now, it would seem… The diff back then it was a war with invalids due to the fighting that needed health care, Labour promised the NHS. There is no big lift now to carry that victory, no cheap fuel on the horizon and Starmer has upset women on the Trans issue you might argue he is sabotaging the labour party. |
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Post by thomas on Jan 28, 2024 21:05:50 GMT
With the exception of Blair, Labour beat the Tories by 15 seats in 1964 and 21 seats in 1974. I have not included 1945 as too close to the war.
The truth is that Labour doesn’t need Scottish MPs, and an independent Scotland would NOT give the Tories a permanent majority in the remnant UK. Those are the facts, and voters should be deeply mistrustful of anyone who tells them anything else
So in summary we can see the following:
– on ONE occasion (1964) Scottish MPs have turned what would have been a Conservative government into a Labour one. The Tory majority without Scottish votes would have been just one MP (280 vs 279), and as such useless in practice. The Labour government, with an almost equally feeble majority of 4, lasted just 18 months and a Tory one would probably have collapsed even faster.
– on ONE occasion (the second of the two 1974 elections) Scottish MPs gave Labour a wafer-thin majority (319 vs 316) they wouldn’t have had from the rest of the UK alone, although they’d still have been the largest party and able to command a majority in a pact with the Liberals, as they eventually did in reality.
– and on ONE occasion (2010) the presence of Scottish MPs has deprived the Conservatives of an outright majority, although the Conservatives ended up in control of the government anyway in coalition with the Lib Dems when Labour refused to co-operate with other parties in a “rainbow alliance”.
– which means that for 65 of the last 67 years, Scottish MPs as an entity have had no practical influence over the composition of the UK government. From a high of 72 MPs in 1983, Scotland’s representation will by 2015 have decreased to 52, substantially reducing any future possibility of affecting a change.
wingsoverscotland.com/why-labour-doesnt-need-scotland/#more-13513 old article that remains true to this day Bancroft. Labour doesn't need scotland. |
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