|
|
Post by Red Rackham on Jan 15, 2024 19:25:01 GMT
Are the Tories facing a 1997 style election wipeout? A YouGov survey of 14,000 people indicates that Rishi Sunak’s Tories could hold on to as few as 169 seats as Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour enters Downing Street with 385, with key party players losing their place in the commons.
The poll, reported in the Telegraph, indicated that every so-called “red wall” seat won by Boris Johnson in 2019 could be lost at the general election this year, but are they abandoning the Tories for Labour, or Reform UK? Indeed will voters abandon the Tories? I mean this is after all just a poll, right...
|
|
|
|
Post by johnofgwent on Jan 15, 2024 23:40:16 GMT
Is this the poll Kier Starmer has told his party faithful not to believe ?
Seriously, there’s a ‘newspaper’ article out there with him saying it is important to not lose sight of the fact they need to fight for every vote ……
I find that slightly alarming, in that it seems to suggest he has mire sense than the welsh windbag whose antics are supposed to have cost labour 1992. But he couldn’t stand up straight on a beach.
I will say this though. If Sunak makes it back to number ten i’ll be more amazed than the Spitting Image puppets the morning after night John Major found he actually won.
|
|
|
|
Post by Red Rackham on Jan 16, 2024 2:49:12 GMT
Is this the poll Kier Starmer has told his party faithful not to believe ? Seriously, there’s a ‘newspaper’ article out there with him saying it is important to not lose sight of the fact they need to fight for every vote …… I find that slightly alarming, in that it seems to suggest he has mire sense than the welsh windbag whose antics are supposed to have cost labour 1992. But he couldn’t stand up straight on a beach. I will say this though. If Sunak makes it back to number ten i’ll be more amazed than the Spitting Image puppets the morning after night John Major found he actually won. The 'Tories' are facing electoral defeat because thanks to Sunak they are no longer Tories. No one likes Starmer, he is a left wing socialist lawyer with zero personality, and will probably be our next prime minister. God help us. |
|
|
|
Post by johnofgwent on Jan 16, 2024 8:55:22 GMT
Is this the poll Kier Starmer has told his party faithful not to believe ? Seriously, there’s a ‘newspaper’ article out there with him saying it is important to not lose sight of the fact they need to fight for every vote …… I find that slightly alarming, in that it seems to suggest he has mire sense than the welsh windbag whose antics are supposed to have cost labour 1992. But he couldn’t stand up straight on a beach. I will say this though. If Sunak makes it back to number ten i’ll be more amazed than the Spitting Image puppets the morning after night John Major found he actually won. The 'Tories' are facing electoral defeat because thanks to Sunak they are no longer Tories. No one likes Starmer, he is a left wing socialist lawyer with zero personality, and will probably be our next prime minister. God help us. Your view is certainly representative of the constituency party in my son in law’s constituency. But the party ceased to be Tory as i understood the word from my youth many decades ago. Just as Labour ceased to be interested in the working man because they had to drive white vans. |
|
|
|
Post by johnofgwent on Jan 16, 2024 8:59:17 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by The Squeezed Middle on Jan 16, 2024 9:09:08 GMT
I wouldn't place too much store by any YouGov survey since the respondents are mainly left wing.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 16, 2024 15:17:21 GMT
Are the Tories facing a 1997 style election wipeout? A YouGov survey of 14,000 people indicates that Rishi Sunak’s Tories could hold on to as few as 169 seats as Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour enters Downing Street with 385, with key party players losing their place in the commons. The poll, reported in the Telegraph, indicated that every so-called “red wall” seat won by Boris Johnson in 2019 could be lost at the general election this year, but are they abandoning the Tories for Labour, or Reform UK? Indeed will voters abandon the Tories? I mean this is after all just a poll, right... Of course any poll is always just a poll and opinions can change, especially as a result of unforeseen events. I am just old enough to remember that according to polling, Margaret Thatcher and the Tories were dead in the winter in the very early 80s. And then the Falklands war happened. So only a fool would ever say for certainty that the polling wont change. But equally only a fool would assume with certainty that it will. There is no certainty either way, so we are just dealing with likelihoods and probabilities. It does look to me as if the public have turned decisively against the Tories, and it would take something massive to turn that around. But I do not really detect much in the way of serious enthusiasm for Labour, whose large poll lead seems to be largely built upon the anything but the Tories factor. There is also evidence that disgruntled right wingers are also doing damage to Tory support by peeling off to Reform, though this is only likely to help Labour as well since it takes votes away from their only real opponents in the quest for power. I suspect some of the polling in favour of Reform will not be born out in the election as some of their supporters realise this and vote Tory at the last minute in an attempt to keep Labour out. But that is just a guess on my part. If the polling is accurate and does remain unchanged and the Tories do end up getting no more than 169 seats, it is still more than they got in 1997 or 2001, so would hardly be an unprecedented disaster, merely a disaster. Because it would still be a Labour landslide. And I dont actually want that any more than you do. |
|
|
|
Post by thomas on Jan 16, 2024 18:26:37 GMT
Are the Tories facing a 1997 style election wipeout? A YouGov survey of 14,000 people indicates that Rishi Sunak’s Tories could hold on to as few as 169 seats as Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour enters Downing Street with 385, with key party players losing their place in the commons. The poll, reported in the Telegraph, indicated that every so-called “red wall” seat won by Boris Johnson in 2019 could be lost at the general election this year, but are they abandoning the Tories for Labour, or Reform UK? Indeed will voters abandon the Tories? I mean this is after all just a poll, right... Of course any poll is always just a poll and opinions can change, especially as a result of unforeseen events. I am just old enough to remember that according to polling, Margaret Thatcher and the Tories were dead in the winter in the very early 80s. And then the Falklands war happened. So only a fool would ever say for certainty that the polling wont change. But equally only a fool would assume with certainty that it will. There is no certainty either way, so we are just dealing with likelihoods and probabilities. It does look to me as if the public have turned decisively against the Tories, and it would take something massive to turn that around. But I do not really detect much in the way of serious enthusiasm for Labour, whose large poll lead seems to be largely built upon the anything but the Tories factor. There is also evidence that disgruntled right wingers are also doing damage to Tory support by peeling off to Reform, though this is only likely to help Labour as well since it takes votes away from their only real opponents in the quest for power. I suspect some of the polling in favour of Reform will not be born out in the election as some of their supporters realise this and vote Tory at the last minute in an attempt to keep Labour out. But that is just a guess on my part. If the polling is accurate and does remain unchanged and the Tories do end up getting no more than 169 seats, it is still more than they got in 1997 or 2001, so would hardly be an unprecedented disaster, merely a disaster. Because it would still be a Labour landslide. And I dont actually want that any more than you do. my two biggest moments of disappointment in politics Steve. were Blairs victory in 1997( I voted for him full of hope , but severely let down never to return to labour again) and obviously 2014 when we lost. To go back to this YouGov poll , the media are seriously overegging the pudding here. Blair was sitting on about 53% in the polls at this point on the run up to his 97 landslide , starmer has averaged 43% , the latest has him on 39.5%, with projections sitting on a miserly 50% turnout. We could end up with a miserable starmer new labour government , with no mandate , on a tiny fraction of the uk electorates vote , pushing the uk further into turmoil. we really are sleepwalking into a massive political crises , with none of the above the most popular party. |
|
|
|
Post by thomas on Jan 16, 2024 18:32:00 GMT
Are the Tories facing a 1997 style election wipeout? A YouGov survey of 14,000 people indicates that Rishi Sunak’s Tories could hold on to as few as 169 seats as Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour enters Downing Street with 385, with key party players losing their place in the commons. The poll, reported in the Telegraph, indicated that every so-called “red wall” seat won by Boris Johnson in 2019 could be lost at the general election this year, but are they abandoning the Tories for Labour, or Reform UK? Indeed will voters abandon the Tories? I mean this is after all just a poll, right... Of course any poll is always just a poll and opinions can change, especially as a result of unforeseen events. I am just old enough to remember that according to polling, Margaret Thatcher and the Tories were dead in the winter in the very early 80s. And then the Falklands war happened. So only a fool would ever say for certainty that the polling wont change. But equally only a fool would assume with certainty that it will. There is no certainty either way, so we are just dealing with likelihoods and probabilities. It does look to me as if the public have turned decisively against the Tories, and it would take something massive to turn that around. But I do not really detect much in the way of serious enthusiasm for Labour, whose large poll lead seems to be largely built upon the anything but the Tories factor. There is also evidence that disgruntled right wingers are also doing damage to Tory support by peeling off to Reform, though this is only likely to help Labour as well since it takes votes away from their only real opponents in the quest for power. I suspect some of the polling in favour of Reform will not be born out in the election as some of their supporters realise this and vote Tory at the last minute in an attempt to keep Labour out. But that is just a guess on my part. If the polling is accurate and does remain unchanged and the Tories do end up getting no more than 169 seats, it is still more than they got in 1997 or 2001, so would hardly be an unprecedented disaster, merely a disaster. Because it would still be a Labour landslide. And I dont actually want that any more than you do. just to add further Steve , the latest r & w poll is predicting a 47% turnout. Yep ....47% , which would (if it happened) give labour an even worse share of the electorates support than it got in 2029 , 20.7% in the poll , compared to 21.6 in 2019. Embarrassing stuff. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 17, 2024 11:50:44 GMT
Of course any poll is always just a poll and opinions can change, especially as a result of unforeseen events. I am just old enough to remember that according to polling, Margaret Thatcher and the Tories were dead in the winter in the very early 80s. And then the Falklands war happened. So only a fool would ever say for certainty that the polling wont change. But equally only a fool would assume with certainty that it will. There is no certainty either way, so we are just dealing with likelihoods and probabilities. It does look to me as if the public have turned decisively against the Tories, and it would take something massive to turn that around. But I do not really detect much in the way of serious enthusiasm for Labour, whose large poll lead seems to be largely built upon the anything but the Tories factor. There is also evidence that disgruntled right wingers are also doing damage to Tory support by peeling off to Reform, though this is only likely to help Labour as well since it takes votes away from their only real opponents in the quest for power. I suspect some of the polling in favour of Reform will not be born out in the election as some of their supporters realise this and vote Tory at the last minute in an attempt to keep Labour out. But that is just a guess on my part. If the polling is accurate and does remain unchanged and the Tories do end up getting no more than 169 seats, it is still more than they got in 1997 or 2001, so would hardly be an unprecedented disaster, merely a disaster. Because it would still be a Labour landslide. And I dont actually want that any more than you do. just to add further Steve , the latest r & w poll is predicting a 47% turnout. Yep ....47% , which would (if it happened) give labour an even worse share of the electorates support than it got in 2029 , 20.7% in the poll , compared to 21.6 in 2019. Embarrassing stuff. If only the other 53 percent instead of doing nothing went out and voted for anyone but the LibLabCon Establishment party, we'd cause the political earthquake the nations of this island so desperately need. |
|
|
|
Post by thomas on Jan 17, 2024 15:51:09 GMT
just to add further Steve , the latest r & w poll is predicting a 47% turnout. Yep ....47% , which would (if it happened) give labour an even worse share of the electorates support than it got in 2029 , 20.7% in the poll , compared to 21.6 in 2019. Embarrassing stuff. If only the other 53 percent instead of doing nothing went out and voted for anyone but the LibLabCon Establishment party, we'd cause the political earthquake the nations of this island so desperately need. on the other hand the bigger the none of the above apathetic vote grows , the less legitimacy fptp and the disgraceful two party stitch up becomes in the eyes of the general public. Either way , something is going to give one way or the other. |
|
|
|
Post by The Squeezed Middle on Jan 17, 2024 16:45:40 GMT
It would be interesting if Labour got 385 seats with only 20% of the vote. Interesting as in a crisis for democracy.
|
|
|
|
Post by Baron von Lotsov on Jan 17, 2024 16:47:28 GMT
Is this the poll Kier Starmer has told his party faithful not to believe ? Seriously, there’s a ‘newspaper’ article out there with him saying it is important to not lose sight of the fact they need to fight for every vote …… I find that slightly alarming, in that it seems to suggest he has mire sense than the welsh windbag whose antics are supposed to have cost labour 1992. But he couldn’t stand up straight on a beach. I will say this though. If Sunak makes it back to number ten i’ll be more amazed than the Spitting Image puppets the morning after night John Major found he actually won. If you go into a shop and wonder whether you should buy something, would you expect the sales assistant to think, I got fight?
Starmer is probably thinking, I know, I'll dress up a an action man to impress the proles.
|
|
|
|
Post by Pacifico on Jan 17, 2024 18:47:03 GMT
just to add further Steve , the latest r & w poll is predicting a 47% turnout. Yep ....47% , which would (if it happened) give labour an even worse share of the electorates support than it got in 2029 , 20.7% in the poll , compared to 21.6 in 2019. Embarrassing stuff. If only the other 53 percent instead of doing nothing went out and voted for anyone but the LibLabCon Establishment party, we'd cause the political earthquake the nations of this island so desperately need. I'd like to think so but under the present electoral system I doubt it. Dont forget that supporters of Labour and the LibDems are very keen on tactical voting to keep any opponents away from power. |
|
|
|
Post by thomas on Jan 17, 2024 19:09:21 GMT
If only the other 53 percent instead of doing nothing went out and voted for anyone but the LibLabCon Establishment party, we'd cause the political earthquake the nations of this island so desperately need. I'd like to think so but under the present electoral system I doubt it. Dont forget that supporters of Labour and the LibDems are very keen on tactical voting to keep any opponents away from power. well why not Pacifico , the two party duopoly was broken in Scotland under fptp. why couldn't it be done in england? We are approaching a time now , and it's coming on fast and furious , where the vast majority of the public in the yookay have no time for labour and tory. The old schtick about holding your nose and voting dumb to keep out dumber is starting to wear thin . Nothing lasts forever , and with starmer apparently going to win a landslide on 20.6% of the uk electorate vote , eventually even the most hardened supporter of FPTP will be admitting governments winning on non existent democratic mandates is farcical. (im not suggesting you do or don't support fptp , just saying) |
|
