Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2024 11:46:09 GMT
It does appear though, that Labour seem to be helping the Tories win back a few votes.
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Post by Vinny on Jan 18, 2024 14:01:12 GMT
Most likely outcome is a hung parliament. A hung parliament is a possibility of course, but it does not look like the most likely outcome according to current polling, which looks to be showing anything from a working majority to a landslide for Labour. To credibly argue that a hung parliament is the most likely outcome (and I wish it were) you would need to demonstrate a logical argument as to why the current polls are likely to be wrong or are likely to change. Without that, your statement that a hung parliament is most likely is sadly not what the polling evidence is telling us right now. You place too much trust in opinion polls. Your obsessive hatred of the Tories blinds you to how crap Labour are and how uncharismatic its leader is. Starmer has about as much charisma as a wet cigarette butt in a street gutter. Neither man is going to land a killer blow on the other, neither have memorable policies. They're not likeable, trustworthy or interesting parties. My prediction, neither will get a majority. Another coalition / confidence and supply government. Probably with Lib Dems and others, odds of the Tories and Labour working together are low. |
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Post by thomas on Jan 18, 2024 14:08:15 GMT
A hung parliament is a possibility of course, but it does not look like the most likely outcome according to current polling, which looks to be showing anything from a working majority to a landslide for Labour. To credibly argue that a hung parliament is the most likely outcome (and I wish it were) you would need to demonstrate a logical argument as to why the current polls are likely to be wrong or are likely to change. Without that, your statement that a hung parliament is most likely is sadly not what the polling evidence is telling us right now. You place too much trust in opinion polls. Your obsessive hatred of the Tories blinds you to how crap Labour are and how uncharismatic its leader is. Starmer has about as much charisma as a wet cigarette butt in a street gutter. Neither man is going to land a killer blow on the other, neither have memorable policies. They're not likeable, trustworthy or interesting parties. My prediction, neither will get a majority. right so its your personal prediction , based on a personal whim rather than any educated guesswork or data , that its going to be a hung parliament? glad we cleared that up then Vinny. |
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Post by thomas on Jan 18, 2024 14:08:58 GMT
A hung parliament is a possibility of course, but it does not look like the most likely outcome according to current polling, which looks to be showing anything from a working majority to a landslide for Labour. To credibly argue that a hung parliament is the most likely outcome (and I wish it were) you would need to demonstrate a logical argument as to why the current polls are likely to be wrong or are likely to change. Without that, your statement that a hung parliament is most likely is sadly not what the polling evidence is telling us right now. My prediction, neither will get a majority. Another coalition / confidence and supply government. Probably with Lib Dems and others, odds of the Tories and Labour working together are low. what others? you mean the snp? |
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Post by The Squeezed Middle on Jan 18, 2024 14:52:25 GMT
It would be interesting if Labour got 385 seats with only 20% of the vote. Interesting as in a crisis for democracy. They got a substantial majority in 2005 with only 35% of the vote if I recall correctly. And in 2015 the SNP and UKIP got pretty much the same number of votes. but whilst the former got 57 seats the latter got none. We all said these facts made FPTP indefensible but the ruling parties didnt care. They are shameless in this respect. If Labour did win with only 20% of the vote we'd be banging on about it again. But Labour wont care. Those in charge would have gotten what they want legally through their stitch up of a system and won't really care about the furore, just mouthing platitudes about how to engage more people with the democratic process. But this will not include any kind of voting system that makes every vote count and limits their ability to win full power. So will of course be nothing but meaningless chatter. Yes. I read somewhere that Blair won his last term with the lowest vote share of any winning party ever.
That's where the rot started IMHO. As I've said before: I don't live in a democracy and I'm not sure that I ever have.
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Post by thomas on Jan 18, 2024 14:59:10 GMT
They got a substantial majority in 2005 with only 35% of the vote if I recall correctly. And in 2015 the SNP and UKIP got pretty much the same number of votes. but whilst the former got 57 seats the latter got none. We all said these facts made FPTP indefensible but the ruling parties didnt care. They are shameless in this respect. If Labour did win with only 20% of the vote we'd be banging on about it again. But Labour wont care. Those in charge would have gotten what they want legally through their stitch up of a system and won't really care about the furore, just mouthing platitudes about how to engage more people with the democratic process. But this will not include any kind of voting system that makes every vote count and limits their ability to win full power. So will of course be nothing but meaningless chatter. Yes. I read somewhere that Blair won his last term with the lowest vote share of any winning party ever.
That's where the rot started IMHO. As I've said before: I don't live in a democracy and I'm not sure that I ever have.
think it was 2001 , where he won a landslide off a fraction of the electorates vote on the lowest turnout in post war uk electoral history. Starmer could be on course to beat even that. Crises for uk democracy looms. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2024 18:30:19 GMT
A hung parliament is a possibility of course, but it does not look like the most likely outcome according to current polling, which looks to be showing anything from a working majority to a landslide for Labour. To credibly argue that a hung parliament is the most likely outcome (and I wish it were) you would need to demonstrate a logical argument as to why the current polls are likely to be wrong or are likely to change. Without that, your statement that a hung parliament is most likely is sadly not what the polling evidence is telling us right now. You place too much trust in opinion polls. Your obsessive hatred of the Tories blinds you to how crap Labour are and how uncharismatic its leader is. Starmer has about as much charisma as a wet cigarette butt in a street gutter. Neither man is going to land a killer blow on the other, neither have memorable policies. They're not likeable, trustworthy or interesting parties. My prediction, neither will get a majority. Another coalition / confidence and supply government. Probably with Lib Dems and others, odds of the Tories and Labour working together are low. You might turn out to be right. But it is not what the evidence is suggesting is most likely right now. As for your dismissal of polling evidence, you have no measured evidence in its place to support that beyond your own personal dislike of Starmer. I dont like him either. But that does not constitute evidence. |
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Post by thomas on Jan 18, 2024 18:42:33 GMT
You place too much trust in opinion polls. Your obsessive hatred of the Tories blinds you to how crap Labour are and how uncharismatic its leader is. Starmer has about as much charisma as a wet cigarette butt in a street gutter. Neither man is going to land a killer blow on the other, neither have memorable policies. They're not likeable, trustworthy or interesting parties. My prediction, neither will get a majority. Another coalition / confidence and supply government. Probably with Lib Dems and others, odds of the Tories and Labour working together are low. You might turn out to be right. But it is not what the evidence is suggesting is most likely right now. As for your dismissal of polling evidence, you have no measured evidence in its place to support that beyond your own personal dislike of Starmer. I dont like him either. But that does not constitute evidence. This is a guy who regularly shouts polls are wrong , when they don't show what he wants. For example Vinny wants to abolish the Scottish Parliament , based on a personal dislike of devolution , which something like on average 8 % of Scots voters support and 92% don't. I don't think Vinny dislikes labour or hates labour , perhaps im wrong , more that he is shit scared europhile starmer is going to take him back into the Eu , so its head in the sand time denying reality , opinion polls are wrong , vinnys hunch is hung parliament that sort of thing. what evidence and data we have , coupled with a dodgy fptp stitch up shows starmers labour are in an incredibly strong position . Only a fool would suggest otherwise , and as you know , I have absolutely zero time for starmer and new labour , probably more than Vinny. but facts are facts. polls do get things wrong , but we are talking such incredibly high numbers now on a consistent basis its more damage limitation for the tories and snp rather than any hope the other way. Turnout as ever will be key as everyone keeps saying , but even then , a hung parliament , with a pro European majority , is looking likely rather in my opinion.*** edit to add , *** if the turnout is much higher than expected and the snp and tories get their voters out . |
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Post by Vinny on Jan 18, 2024 20:28:24 GMT
A decade ago polls predicted the defeat of David Cameron by Ed Miliband. Polls said that the UK wanted to stay in the EU.
That Theresa May would thrash Jeremy Corbyn in 2017 etc.
I don't trust polls.
I expect the Tories to lose the next election, but they're a shambles, and the electoral swing needed to give Labour a majority is bigger than that achieved by Clement Attlee in 1945, never mind Blair in 1997. Even David Cameron in 2010, who achieved an enormous swing, didn't get enough seats for a majority.
None of the parties at the moment have much charisma. To win a huge majority? Doubt it will happen. The big risk is a hung parliament and remoaning whinger Lib Dems getting into a position of strength.
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Post by Baron von Lotsov on Jan 18, 2024 21:06:03 GMT
A decade ago polls predicted the defeat of David Cameron by Ed Miliband. Polls said that the UK wanted to stay in the EU. That Theresa May would thrash Jeremy Corbyn in 2017 etc. I don't trust polls. I expect the Tories to lose the next election, but they're a shambles, and the electoral swing needed to give Labour a majority is bigger than that achieved by Clement Attlee in 1945, never mind Blair in 1997. Even David Cameron in 2010, who achieved an enormous swing, didn't get enough seats for a majority. None of the parties at the moment have much charisma. To win a huge majority? Doubt it will happen. The big risk is a hung parliament and remoaning whinger Lib Dems getting into a position of strength. Reform is like the old UKIP crowd, but UKIP stood down at the last election. Reform will not do the Tories any such favour. They will be back at where May was, but with a poor tack record they will lose. Chances are Starmer will have just the same policies in the next term as the Tories were planing on. The bastards don't work for the British public and it is the same system in place. |
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Post by andrewbrown on Jan 18, 2024 21:47:30 GMT
A decade ago polls predicted the defeat of David Cameron by Ed Miliband. Polls said that the UK wanted to stay in the EU. That Theresa May would thrash Jeremy Corbyn in 2017 etc. I don't trust polls. I expect the Tories to lose the next election, but they're a shambles, and the electoral swing needed to give Labour a majority is bigger than that achieved by Clement Attlee in 1945, never mind Blair in 1997. Even David Cameron in 2010, who achieved an enormous swing, didn't get enough seats for a majority. None of the parties at the moment have much charisma. To win a huge majority? Doubt it will happen. The big risk is a hung parliament and remoaning whinger Lib Dems getting into a position of strength. Reform is like the old UKIP crowd, but UKIP stood down at the last election. Reform will not do the Tories any such favour. They will be back at where May was, but with a poor tack record they will lose. Chances are Starmer will have just the same policies in the next term as the Tories were planing on. The bastards don't work for the British public and it is the same system in place. Think you have mixed up UKIP with the Brexit Party. |
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Post by Baron von Lotsov on Jan 18, 2024 22:29:10 GMT
Reform is like the old UKIP crowd, but UKIP stood down at the last election. Reform will not do the Tories any such favour. They will be back at where May was, but with a poor tack record they will lose. Chances are Starmer will have just the same policies in the next term as the Tories were planing on. The bastards don't work for the British public and it is the same system in place. Think you have mixed up UKIP with the Brexit Party. Not really. It just followed Farage. Some stupid women took over the UKIP and everyone switched to the new name. They stood down on the promise we would actually leave the EU. Now it is all about leaving the ECHR because leaving the EU has not stopped the immigrants. |
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Post by andrewbrown on Jan 18, 2024 22:31:59 GMT
No, the UKIP still exists. The Brexit Party was seperate and became Reform UK.
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Post by Vinny on Jan 18, 2024 22:38:20 GMT
Think you have mixed up UKIP with the Brexit Party. Not really. It just followed Farage. Some stupid women took over the UKIP and everyone switched to the new name. They stood down on the promise we would actually leave the EU. Now it is all about leaving the ECHR because leaving the EU has not stopped the immigrants. We don't need to leave the ECHR, it's easy enough to create tented refugee camps with barbed wire around them. And the argument for barbed wire is to protect them from "racist attacks" like tent burners. Just abolish devolution and set up the camps on Scottish islands. |
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Post by Baron von Lotsov on Jan 18, 2024 23:04:25 GMT
Not really. It just followed Farage. Some stupid women took over the UKIP and everyone switched to the new name. They stood down on the promise we would actually leave the EU. Now it is all about leaving the ECHR because leaving the EU has not stopped the immigrants. We don't need to leave the ECHR, it's easy enough to create tented refugee camps with barbed wire around them. And the argument for barbed wire is to protect them from "racist attacks" like tent burners. Just abolish devolution and set up the camps on Scottish islands. I'd rather the army did something useful and put them in a military plane and sent them over to meet their cousins in the bush. They might get cold in the Scottish highlands. |
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