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Post by Vinny on Jan 18, 2024 23:17:16 GMT
They will see Scotland as a cold and foreboding place. And that'll dispell any romantic notions of Britain being a generous place that gives everyone a house and free money.
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Post by thomas on Jan 19, 2024 11:09:12 GMT
A decade ago polls predicted the defeat of David Cameron by Ed Miliband. Polls said that the UK wanted to stay in the EU. That Theresa May would thrash Jeremy Corbyn in 2017 etc. I don't trust polls. I expect the Tories to lose the next election, but they're a shambles, and the electoral swing needed to give Labour a majority is bigger than that achieved by Clement Attlee in 1945, never mind Blair in 1997. Even David Cameron in 2010, who achieved an enormous swing, didn't get enough seats for a majority. None of the parties at the moment have much charisma. To win a huge majority? Doubt it will happen. The big risk is a hung parliament and remoaning whinger Lib Dems getting into a position of strength. which polls were they then Vinny? do you have a link? We aren't talking a fag papers width in the polls , by a massive and consistent gap that has been there almost since rishi Sunak resigned and took Johnson down. At the time , the gap was three points , now we are talking about an average 15 / 20 point lead since the latter part of 2022 . we know you don't trust polls . so what? what you are being asked is why do you think it will be a hung parliament , and so far all you can tell us its `a hunch` down to the fact you are worried about starmer and BRINO. if tory and snp voters largely don't vote and are apathetic , its around a 50 % turnout on the day , and labour get their base out to vote , some 20 % of the electorate , then its going to be a big win for starmer , that is the fact. There is no evidence the lib dems are challenging in any more than 20 seats , and no one disagrees with you the main parties have no charisma or appeal , but none of this supports your hunch of a hung parliament . Give us some facts and figures for a bit of hope instead of yet another Vinny Wishlist? |
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Post by thomas on Jan 19, 2024 11:12:27 GMT
They will see Scotland as a cold and foreboding place. And that'll dispell any romantic notions of Britain being a generous place that gives everyone a house and free money. brilliant Vinny. That'll sell the union to Scots. Abolish devolution against 92% of Scots wishes so the armpit of English society can send their illegal immigrants into our beautiful country. I like it. You should apply for an snp staffer job , you could earn a few bob posting stuff like this as part of the snps twitler youth. A one man tornado who would have indy in the high 90 % within weeks.  |
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Post by thomas on Jan 19, 2024 15:25:39 GMT
You place too much trust in opinion polls. Your obsessive hatred of the Tories blinds you to how crap Labour are and how uncharismatic its leader is. Starmer has about as much charisma as a wet cigarette butt in a street gutter. Neither man is going to land a killer blow on the other, neither have memorable policies. They're not likeable, trustworthy or interesting parties. My prediction, neither will get a majority. Another coalition / confidence and supply government. Probably with Lib Dems and others, odds of the Tories and Labour working together are low. You might turn out to be right. But it is not what the evidence is suggesting is most likely right now. As for your dismissal of polling evidence, you have no measured evidence in its place to support that beyond your own personal dislike of Starmer. I dont like him either. But that does not constitute evidence.
The polling expert Prof John Curtice has warned of low turnout at this year’s general election, in part because voters regard Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer to be as “dull as dishwater”.
Speaking at an event for the Citizens Advice charity, Curtice cited boring leaders as one of three reasons why the voting numbers would be down.
“We have two party leaders, three if you include Ed Davey – none of them enthuse the electorate, none of them is popular, all of them are regarded as dull as dishwater,” he told an online seminar on predictions for the election year.
The two other factors likely to suppress turnout were the ideological similarity between Labour and the Conservatives, and opinion polls suggesting Labour will win comfortably, he said. |
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Post by Baron von Lotsov on Jan 19, 2024 18:19:30 GMT
No, the UKIP still exists. The Brexit Party was seperate and became Reform UK. You should look at the late history of the UKIP. They brought a High Court case which is available online. it makes interesting reading regarding the judge's thoughts on those that were in charge of the UKIP at that point.
It's a bit like ourselves really. We use this forum and we have a name to it, but the name of the forum can change and yet we are still talking about the same people. Now the new name is Reform. Your view is known as nominalism: a thing is in essence its name.
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Post by Baron von Lotsov on Jan 19, 2024 18:21:03 GMT
They will see Scotland as a cold and foreboding place. And that'll dispell any romantic notions of Britain being a generous place that gives everyone a house and free money. Greenland is mostly empty. |
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Post by thomas on Jan 20, 2024 10:57:17 GMT
They will see Scotland as a cold and foreboding place. And that'll dispell any romantic notions of Britain being a generous place that gives everyone a house and free money. Greenland is mostly empty. The central belt of Scotland is almost as densely populated as London and the south east , Inverness has less rainfall than many of the northern English towns and cities , and Oban has less frost and ice than English towns in the south of englerlund. Vinny does like a good generalisation. I don't think the holiday home owners , and retirees will want illegals being housed in rural Scotland. They will end up in the central belt as normal . |
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Post by Red Rackham on Jan 20, 2024 11:32:29 GMT
I'm undecided, Tory or Reform, so I guess I'm a tactical voter too. That doesn't make any sense to me. It shows you aren't enthused by the two party first past the post system. why tactical vote when you should be enthused by the two party fptp system , by voting enthusiastically for one or the other.? tactical voting is a vote against not for the system red. No I disagree. I'm a Conservative but I voted UKIP, as did 12.7% of the electorate and it worked, it forced the government to allow a referendum. Reform UK will also bring pressure to bear on the government regardless of whether it's a left wing Labour or a centrist Tory government because people have had enough of mass immigration, legal or otherwise. Just for interest. This morning it was revealed on GB News, via a FOI request, that illegals who cross the channel are being given £50 a week pocket money not £14 a week as previously stated by the Home Office. This is just one of the reasons why Reform UK are surging in the polls. |
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Post by thomas on Jan 20, 2024 11:41:38 GMT
That doesn't make any sense to me. It shows you aren't enthused by the two party first past the post system. why tactical vote when you should be enthused by the two party fptp system , by voting enthusiastically for one or the other.? tactical voting is a vote against not for the system red. No I disagree. I'm a Conservative but I voted UKIP, as did 12.7% of the electorate and it worked, it forced the government to allow a referendum. Reform UK will also bring pressure to bear on the government regardless of whether it's a left wing Labour or a centrist Tory government because people have had enough of mass immigration, legal or otherwise. Just for interest. This morning it was revealed on GB News, via a FOI request, that illegals who cross the channel are being given £50 a week pocket money not £14 a week as previously stated by the Home Office. This is just one of the reasons why Reform UK are surging in the polls. I understand why reform are rising in the polls , but my gripe is why a guy who openly says he doesn't support the big two parties , ( I appreciate you said you are conservative in terms of politics but you also said you vote other parties despite this) tells me 12 % of the uk electorate voted ukip while the big moan at the time was they barely got a seat , and constantly gives reasons against not for The two party FPTP stitch up , would want to continue to support the very system that appears to be holding back your political wishes ? Just find your posts a bit contradictory red. Surely voting for parties you do support is far more democratic in nature , than having to vote for parties tactically , or to put pressure on the main two to offer things you want? Doesn't make much sense to me . Quite clearly if you like reform ,they would do far better under a proportional system. |
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Post by Red Rackham on Jan 20, 2024 12:13:19 GMT
No I disagree. I'm a Conservative but I voted UKIP, as did 12.7% of the electorate and it worked, it forced the government to allow a referendum. Reform UK will also bring pressure to bear on the government regardless of whether it's a left wing Labour or a centrist Tory government because people have had enough of mass immigration, legal or otherwise. Just for interest. This morning it was revealed on GB News, via a FOI request, that illegals who cross the channel are being given £50 a week pocket money not £14 a week as previously stated by the Home Office. This is just one of the reasons why Reform UK are surging in the polls. I understand why reform are rising in the polls , but my gripe is why a guy who openly says he doesn't support the big two parties , ( I appreciate you said you are conservative in terms of politics but you also said you vote other parties despite this) tells me 12 % of the uk electorate voted ukip while the big moan at the time was they barely got a seat , and constantly gives reasons against not for The two party FPTP stitch up , would want to continue to support the very system that appears to be holding back your political wishes ? Just find your posts a bit contradictory red. Surely voting for parties you do support is far more democratic in nature , than having to vote for parties tactically , or to put pressure on the main two to offer things you want? Doesn't make much sense to me . Quite clearly if you like reform ,they would do far better under a proportional system. Voting UKIP wasn't about getting seats. UKIP's aim was to force the government to allow a referendum, and they were successful, eventually. I don't necessarily like Reform UK, Richard Tice is keen on PR for instance, but for all the reasons I stated previously in this thread PR would be a disaster for this country. I want a proper centre right Conservative government and if Reform UK do well at the next election, and I think they will, it will force the conservatives to get rid of pro EU centrists like Sunak & Hunt and get back to being a traditional centre right Conservative party. |
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Post by thomas on Jan 20, 2024 12:51:27 GMT
I understand why reform are rising in the polls , but my gripe is why a guy who openly says he doesn't support the big two parties , ( I appreciate you said you are conservative in terms of politics but you also said you vote other parties despite this) tells me 12 % of the uk electorate voted ukip while the big moan at the time was they barely got a seat , and constantly gives reasons against not for The two party FPTP stitch up , would want to continue to support the very system that appears to be holding back your political wishes ? Just find your posts a bit contradictory red. Surely voting for parties you do support is far more democratic in nature , than having to vote for parties tactically , or to put pressure on the main two to offer things you want? Doesn't make much sense to me . Quite clearly if you like reform ,they would do far better under a proportional system. Voting UKIP wasn't about getting seats. Doesn't matter red. The point is the fptp set up is geared specifically to the two party system and dominance of labour and tory. By not getting behind either party , for whatever reason , you are actively causing the system to break down which you tell me you support? When we have a predicted starmer government apparently going to get a landslide on a 50% turnout with support of a fifth of the electorate , no one is going to tell me FPTP and two party system is working well. Its enabling either party vast power on zero mandate from the electorate. |
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Post by Red Rackham on Jan 20, 2024 12:58:39 GMT
Voting UKIP wasn't about getting seats. Doesn't matter red. The point is the fptp set up is geared specifically to the two party system and dominance of labour and tory. By not getting behind either party , for whatever reason , you are actively causing the system to break down which you tell me you support? When we have a predicted starmer government apparently going to get a landslide on a 50% turnout with support of a fifth of the electorate , no one is going to tell me FPTP and two party system is working well. Its enabling either party vast power on zero mandate from the electorate. Not at all, it's entirely up to the elctorate who they vote for. What you're saying is you don't like FPTP therefore we should have PR. It must be said that's not a very enlightened pov. As I said previously: I understand why some people may think PR might be a good move, but in my sincere opinion, it's a case of the grass is always greener. PR would be an absolute disaster, and once adopted there would be no going back because PR wouldn't allow it. PR leads to weak coalitions, often three or four way coalitions that take months even years to form and never agree on anything, PR will ensure strong majority governments are a thing of the past which is why the EU support PR. Every EU state uses some form of PR which ensures they will never leave the EU. Make no mistake, if the UK used PR we would still be in the EU. FPTP may not be perfect, indeed it isn't perfect, but it's a damned sight better than PR. |
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Post by thomas on Jan 20, 2024 14:38:58 GMT
Doesn't matter red. The point is the fptp set up is geared specifically to the two party system and dominance of labour and tory. By not getting behind either party , for whatever reason , you are actively causing the system to break down which you tell me you support? When we have a predicted starmer government apparently going to get a landslide on a 50% turnout with support of a fifth of the electorate , no one is going to tell me FPTP and two party system is working well. Its enabling either party vast power on zero mandate from the electorate. Not at all, it's entirely up to the elctorate who they vote for. What you're saying is you don't like FPTP therefore we should have PR. It must be said that's not a very enlightened pov. As I said previously: I understand why some people may think PR might be a good move, but in my sincere opinion, it's a case of the grass is always greener. PR would be an absolute disaster, and once adopted there would be no going back because PR wouldn't allow it. PR leads to weak coalitions, often three or four way coalitions that take months even years to form and never agree on anything, PR will ensure strong majority governments are a thing of the past which is why the EU support PR. Every EU state uses some form of PR which ensures they will never leave the EU. Make no mistake, if the UK used PR we would still be in the EU. FPTP may not be perfect, indeed it isn't perfect, but it's a damned sight better than PR. Red , everyone outside of England mate already has a form of PR . So what are you talking about? Im simply pointing out if neither tories or labour are your cup of tea , and you want reform or ukip or whoever , then the current system is a barrier to those parties , and a barrier to any sort of political reform. That's all. your posts don't match up with your support of the current system. If you don't like pr, then fair enough. That's up to you. Don't moan when fptp and the current two party system means parties that get 12 % of the vote don't get 12 % representation , as they should in any normal functioning democracy. |
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Post by patman post on Jan 20, 2024 14:54:35 GMT
Seems to me that Tice's Reform is Starmer's best ally.
If Reform carries out its threat to stand against every Tory candidate, many dissatisfied Tory voters are likely to vote Reform rather than LibDem or Labour
The outcome could be the Conservatives out of office and Labour in power for at least two decades...
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Post by Red Rackham on Jan 20, 2024 14:56:57 GMT
Not at all, it's entirely up to the elctorate who they vote for. What you're saying is you don't like FPTP therefore we should have PR. It must be said that's not a very enlightened pov. As I said previously: I understand why some people may think PR might be a good move, but in my sincere opinion, it's a case of the grass is always greener. PR would be an absolute disaster, and once adopted there would be no going back because PR wouldn't allow it. PR leads to weak coalitions, often three or four way coalitions that take months even years to form and never agree on anything, PR will ensure strong majority governments are a thing of the past which is why the EU support PR. Every EU state uses some form of PR which ensures they will never leave the EU. Make no mistake, if the UK used PR we would still be in the EU. FPTP may not be perfect, indeed it isn't perfect, but it's a damned sight better than PR. Red , everyone outside of England mate already has a form of PR . So what are you talking about? Im simply pointing out if neither tories or labour are your cup of tea , and you want reform or ukip or whoever , then the current system is a barrier to those parties , and a barrier to any sort of political reform. That's all. your posts don't match up with your support of the current system. If you don't like pr, then fair enough. That's up to you. Don't moan when fptp and the current two party system means parties that get 12 % of the vote don't get 12 % representation , as they should in any normal functioning democracy. When you say everyone outside of England I assume you refer to the UK, in which case the vast majority of the UK electorate use FPTP. I am a centre right Conservative, sadly at the moment there is no centre right Conservative party to vote for so I will in all likelihood vote Reform UK. As I said, a good turnout for Reform UK will act as a kick up the arse for the complacent bunch of centrists who currently occupy the Conservative benches in the HoC. I envisage a Labour government for the next five years during which time there will be lots of Tory infighting as the centrists try to hang on, unfortunately for them the growing popularity of Reform will ensure centre right Conservatives regain control in plenty of time for the next (2029) election. Of course things may pan out differently, but at this point in time that's how I see it. |
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