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Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2022 11:34:08 GMT
You seem to have a "primary school understanding" of what maths is. The predictions of the models that SAGE used are science not maths. There's a big difference. And I've just said that Sweden has about the lowest excess deaths in Europe - which seems to indicate that not locking down was a good strategy. But I acknowledge that it's a tricky calculation. Locking down can "buy time" in that it does slow down the rate of transmission. But lockdowns have bad effects on the general health of the population (because of the lack of care for other illnesses). These are only found out later - and we're beginning to realise these effects with excess deaths. I don't think govts will be quite so quick to lockdown in future. Well feel free to show us your maths but while you're trying to understand that get someone of mental age over 5 to explain 'It was never about the deaths' to you. I've tried but seems I used a multisyllable word which may have confused you. A model is just a small box that is attempting to reproduce somepart of the world and relies on inward data to output, in this case, a prediction. Unless you know how it's setup and what is fed in then you won't know how reliable it is, if at all.
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Post by Pacifico on Nov 13, 2022 11:38:35 GMT
Well done - and now try reading it. "NERVTAG does not advise port of entry screening, irrespective of the current limited understanding of the epidemiology." "There are no practical preventative actions that HMG might undertake ahead of Chinese New Year"LOL. Sage's first debate on covid took place on 22nd Jan 2020. --- Chinese New Year 25 Jan. 2020. So as you still cannot show a single instance where the Government was not following SAGE recommendations - care to admit your error and move on?
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Post by Steve on Nov 13, 2022 11:40:53 GMT
Well feel free to show us your maths but while you're trying to understand that get someone of mental age over 5 to explain 'It was never about the deaths' to you. I've tried but seems I used a multisyllable word which may have confused you. A model is just a small box that is attempting to reproduce somepart of the world and relies on inward data to output, in this case, a prediction. Unless you know how it's setup and what is fed in then you won't know how reliable it is, if at all. Except you're forgetting two things: 1: I gave you my model using the official data 2: No one has produced a 'cases in hospital' model that shows anything like we weren't on the fast track to societal disaster by the time we imposed lockdown
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Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2022 12:15:24 GMT
A model is just a small box that is attempting to reproduce somepart of the world and relies on inward data to output, in this case, a prediction. Unless you know how it's setup and what is fed in then you won't know how reliable it is, if at all. Except you're forgetting two things: 1: I gave you my model using the official data 2: No one has produced a 'cases in hospital' model that shows anything like we weren't on the fast track to societal disaster by the time we imposed lockdown 1) I was merely explaining what a "model" is, and I'm not sure if I have forgotten anything in my basic description.
2) Maybe they were banned for questioning "official data"?
What we do have is what Steppenwolf posted: Whether or not it has relevance to this country is open to scrutiny.
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Post by see2 on Nov 13, 2022 14:30:25 GMT
LOL. Sage's first debate on covid took place on 22nd Jan 2020. --- Chinese New Year 25 Jan. 2020. So as you still cannot show a single instance where the Government was not following SAGE recommendations - care to admit your error and move on? Give me a single instance in Jan or Feb 2020 when Sage advised the government to adopt Herd Immunity as a strategy.
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Post by Pacifico on Nov 13, 2022 17:25:09 GMT
So as you still cannot show a single instance where the Government was not following SAGE recommendations - care to admit your error and move on? Give me a single instance in Jan or Feb 2020 when Sage advised the government to adopt Herd Immunity as a strategy. As you have been told (repeatedly by several posters) there was no Herd Immunity strategy. Stop believing everything you read in the Guardian.
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Post by Steve on Nov 13, 2022 17:39:05 GMT
Well we know that Cummings has repeatedly said several government ministers argued for a herd immunity strategy and there don't seem to be any denials by the ministers involved
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Post by Steve on Nov 13, 2022 17:45:16 GMT
Except you're forgetting two things: 1: I gave you my model using the official data 2: No one has produced a 'cases in hospital' model that shows anything like we weren't on the fast track to societal disaster by the time we imposed lockdown 1) I was merely explaining what a "model" is, and I'm not sure if I have forgotten anything in my basic description.
2) Maybe they were banned for questioning "official data"?
What we do have is what Steppenwolf posted: Whether or not it has relevance to this country is open to scrutiny.
Sweden: 2,038 Covid deaths per million people Denmark: 1,274 Covid deaths per million people Norway: 778 Covid deaths per million people Still think Sweden's initial voluntary lockdown comes out well? www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table
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Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2022 19:17:09 GMT
The Tories are Opportunists, and some might say its now "Pay Back Time"
In 2007 it became apparent that the world was facing a serious financial crisis / the credit crunch / the banking crisis, which we all knew would lead to recession and extra borrowing for many countries.
At that time, and in the run-up to the 2010 general election, the Tories laid it on thick, they told the electorate that they would inherit a "mess left by the Labour government" - HOW DISHONEST OF THEM, they were disingenuous and twisted the truth.
Any honest person - a pragmatist, would accept and acknowledge that the crisis which first began in 2007-2008 was a situation which was not created by the then government, it affected many nations, and its roots were largely in the United States.
The Tories are now in a terrible position, they are already 20 points behind in virtually every poll, and the next two years do not look good. We have rampant inflation, a cost of living crisis which was made hugely worse by Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwertang, and we are heading into a long recession.
Funny how the roles have reversed from the situation we were in during the aftermath of the 2008-9 recession
Do I feel sorry for them ? Do I F**k
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Post by totheleft3 on Nov 13, 2022 20:04:24 GMT
Victormeldrew there even a poster on here that says we haven't even payed anything back from the dept And we had been in Aurtristy for the yrs lol
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Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2022 20:55:19 GMT
1) I was merely explaining what a "model" is, and I'm not sure if I have forgotten anything in my basic description.
2) Maybe they were banned for questioning "official data"?
What we do have is what Steppenwolf posted: Whether or not it has relevance to this country is open to scrutiny.
Sweden: 2,038 Covid deaths per million people Denmark: 1,274 Covid deaths per million people Norway: 778 Covid deaths per million people Still think Sweden's initial voluntary lockdown comes out well? www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_tableI never offered any thoughts outside of a model you were depending on. Obviously it cannot be directly tested unless we repeat the experiment, so in this case we have to rely on hindsight and some "official data".
The comparison was between the UK and Sweden, where Sweden is clearly the winner without lockdowns:
Excess deaths in countries that implemented lockdowns also saw a higher rise than we saw in Sweden. Those could also be attributed to the lockdowns and not the virus. Then there's the economic impact from lockdowns, which this topic is partially about.
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Post by Steve on Nov 14, 2022 1:26:55 GMT
So you don't want to compare Sweden with comparable culture and population density countries because they show the 'Sweden' argument against lockdown to be a crock
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Post by steppenwolf on Nov 14, 2022 7:03:07 GMT
So you don't want to compare Sweden with comparable culture and population density countries because they show the 'Sweden' argument against lockdown to be a crock You seem to have missed the whole point of this. There's more to consider than how many people died of Covid - which BTW different countries measure in different ways. You need to consider "excess deaths" to get an accurate picture. You're making the mistake of thinking that there aren't deaths caused by lockdown. Poverty causes deaths too, and there are known to be a large number of cases of cancer that have been missed because of lockdowns. These deaths are further down the line of course. And you're also making the mistake of thinking that the govts "model" for the virus was anywhere near accurate. It wasn't. Like all Ferguson's models it was massively pessimistic. One thing that most people should have learned from Covid is that "models" are not reliable. What I've read seems to confirm that lockdowns didn't work from the point of view of saving lives - and have done huge damage to the economies of all countries that have used them. And poverty kills.
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Post by see2 on Nov 14, 2022 8:37:49 GMT
Give me a single instance in Jan or Feb 2020 when Sage advised the government to adopt Herd Immunity as a strategy. As you have been told (repeatedly by several posters) there was no Herd Immunity strategy. Stop believing everything you read in the Guardian. You cannot, that figures, so stop avoiding the obvious. In Jan 2020 other countries were introducing controls on certain areas of the population, the UK was doing NOTHING. I.E. Defacto Herd Immunity. Which was Boris' spoke of and was his choice at that time.
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Post by Steve on Nov 14, 2022 10:48:41 GMT
So you don't want to compare Sweden with comparable culture and population density countries because they show the 'Sweden' argument against lockdown to be a crock You seem to have missed the whole point of this. There's more to consider than how many people died of Covid - which BTW different countries measure in different ways. You need to consider "excess deaths" to get an accurate picture. You're making the mistake of thinking that there aren't deaths caused by lockdown. Poverty causes deaths too, and there are known to be a large number of cases of cancer that have been missed because of lockdowns. These deaths are further down the line of course. And you're also making the mistake of thinking that the govts "model" for the virus was anywhere near accurate. It wasn't. Like all Ferguson's models it was massively pessimistic. One thing that most people should have learned from Covid is that "models" are not reliable. What I've read seems to confirm that lockdowns didn't work from the point of view of saving lives - and have done huge damage to the economies of all countries that have used them. And poverty kills. BS ^ Show us where I supposedly said there were no deaths from lockdown. Oh look I didn't, you just made that up. Of course there were some and saly you seem to need to be reminded again that 'it was never about the deaths' it was about the country surviving. And feel free to show us this measured data you imagine exists showing Ferguson's model was wrong. Seeing as the UK didn't go down the route he modelled.
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