|
|
Post by see2 on Nov 11, 2022 17:11:11 GMT
My reference about Boris being late to act referred specifically to the early stages, i.e. his "herd immunity" approach. I don't recall Labour MPs calling for the Herd immunity approach. In fact the only other idiot calling for it as I recall, was Trump. There was never a 'herd immunity' approach - the entire Government policy consisted of doing what SAGE told them to do. Hence people like me complaining at the time that they were putting too much reliance on SAGE and Prof Fergusons models. I am referring to what was actually taking place in Jan 2020. |
|
|
|
Post by see2 on Nov 11, 2022 17:23:48 GMT
There was never a 'herd immunity' approach - the entire Government policy consisted of doing what SAGE told them to do. Hence people like me complaining at the time that they were putting too much reliance on SAGE and Prof Fergusons models. I am referring to what was actually taking place in Jan 2020. __"This article outlines the history of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United Kingdom (granular timelines can be found here). Though later reporting indicated that there may have been some cases dating from late 2019, COVID-19 was confirmed to be spreading in the UK by the end of January 2020. The country was initially relatively slow implementing restrictions but a legally enforced stay-at-home order had been introduced by late March. Restrictions were steadily eased across the UK in late spring and early summer that year. By the Autumn, COVID-19 cases were again rising.[13] This led to the creation of new regulations along with the introduction of the concept of a local lockdown, a variance in restrictions in a more specific geographic location than the four nations of the UK"__ |
|
|
|
Post by Pacifico on Nov 11, 2022 17:33:18 GMT
There was never a 'herd immunity' approach - the entire Government policy consisted of doing what SAGE told them to do. Hence people like me complaining at the time that they were putting too much reliance on SAGE and Prof Fergusons models. I am referring to what was actually taking place in Jan 2020. Exactly - they were following the SAGE recommendations. |
|
|
|
Post by Steve on Nov 11, 2022 21:54:44 GMT
I am referring to what was actually taking place in Jan 2020. Exactly - they were following the SAGE recommendations. Feel free to post evidence of that. All the SAGE minutes of the time are available. Won't hold my breath because it was actually Dominic Cummings that instructed by Boris and co tried to persuade SAGE to endorse herd immunity as plan A. |
|
|
|
Post by steppenwolf on Nov 12, 2022 7:46:30 GMT
Oh the irony  And you keep swerving all around the real issue - saving the country On March 27th 2020 we had 7,267 Covid cases in our hospitals A week later in April 4th it was 17,502, a growth rate of 240% a week. At that exponential rate, by April 25th it would have been 244 thousand needing to be in hospital, something like 10 million infected and the NHS would have collapsed. We would have local insurrections blockading streets or even whole towns etc blah, blah Are you Neil Ferguson by any chance? That's exactly the kind of prediction that he would make. Put two points on a graph and then draw a straight line between them and extrapolate to infinity - and very soon we're all dead.  Fortunately it doesn't work like that. Modelling viral infections is more complex than that. The facts are that Sweden had NO lockdowns at all and not only did they get the fewest "excess deaths" but they also did the least damage to their economy. The one thing that we have learned - or most of us anyway - is that lockdowns don't work. In fact the damage done to the economy has killed far more people than Covid ever would have done. |
|
|
|
Post by The Squeezed Middle on Nov 12, 2022 9:45:20 GMT
The facts are that Sweden had NO lockdowns at all and not only did they get the fewest "excess deaths" but they also did the least damage to their economy. The one thing that we have learned - or most of us anyway - is that lockdowns don't work. In fact the damage done to the economy has killed far more people than Covid ever would have done. Yes, as I said previously, we know all that now. But who would have been confident making those calls up front? (And, let's be honest, the government would still have been criticised if they'd gone the other way). And I don't believe that Sweden is a valid comparison. More people live inside the M25 than in the whole of Sweden and population density is a major factor. |
|
|
|
Post by see2 on Nov 12, 2022 9:53:16 GMT
I am referring to what was actually taking place in Jan 2020. Exactly - they were following the SAGE recommendations. They were not following anyone's recommendations in Jan 2020. Stop trying to make excuses. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 12, 2022 10:00:18 GMT
Lifting restrictions reduces case rates by 14.5%
Lockdowns were never recommended until the CCP preached them Boris was right with the herd immunity approach. Steve's "Neil Ferguson" maths has been trashed time and time again by real world experience.
|
|
|
|
Post by see2 on Nov 12, 2022 10:00:23 GMT
Oh the irony And you keep swerving all around the real issue - saving the country On March 27th 2020 we had 7,267 Covid cases in our hospitals A week later in April 4th it was 17,502, a growth rate of 240% a week. At that exponential rate, by April 25th it would have been 244 thousand needing to be in hospital, something like 10 million infected and the NHS would have collapsed. We would have local insurrections blockading streets or even whole towns etc blah, blah Are you Neil Ferguson by any chance? That's exactly the kind of prediction that he would make. Put two points on a graph and then draw a straight line between them and extrapolate to infinity - and very soon we're all dead. Fortunately it doesn't work like that. Modelling viral infections is more complex than that. The facts are that Sweden had NO lockdowns at all and not only did they get the fewest "excess deaths" but they also did the least damage to their economy. The one thing that we have learned - or most of us anyway - is that lockdowns don't work. In fact the damage done to the economy has killed far more people than Covid ever would have done. The UK has more migrants than Sweden has population. You are not exactly comparing like with like. |
|
|
|
Post by Steve on Nov 12, 2022 10:40:42 GMT
Oh the irony And you keep swerving all around the real issue - saving the country On March 27th 2020 we had 7,267 Covid cases in our hospitals A week later in April 4th it was 17,502, a growth rate of 240% a week. At that exponential rate, by April 25th it would have been 244 thousand needing to be in hospital, something like 10 million infected and the NHS would have collapsed. We would have local insurrections blockading streets or even whole towns etc blah, blah Are you Neil Ferguson by any chance? That's exactly the kind of prediction that he would make. Put two points on a graph and then draw a straight line between them and extrapolate to infinity - and very soon we're all dead. Fortunately it doesn't work like that. Modelling viral infections is more complex than that. The facts are that Sweden had NO lockdowns at all and not only did they get the fewest "excess deaths" but they also did the least damage to their economy. The one thing that we have learned - or most of us anyway - is that lockdowns don't work. In fact the damage done to the economy has killed far more people than Covid ever would have done. No I'm not Ferguson, I'm just someone who didn't give up on maths in primary school. You however . . . And you're also wrong on Sweden on just about every point. feel free to show us your analysis you imagine shows ' the damage done to the economy has killed far more people than Covid ever would have done.' |
|
|
|
Post by Steve on Nov 12, 2022 10:51:04 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by sheepy on Nov 12, 2022 10:54:21 GMT
Anyway, luckily for all of you, we have moved on from that debacle and have reached the latest crisis because of it. Because politicians and their entourage voted for every bit of it. Driven by experts who were not much of an expert on very much at all. They had no forward-thinking abilities and now we will suffer the consequences. |
|
|
|
Post by Steve on Nov 12, 2022 11:06:05 GMT
Anyway, luckily for all of you, we have moved on from that debacle and have reached the latest crisis because of it. Because politicians and their entourage voted for every bit of it. Driven by experts who were not much of an expert on very much at all. They had no forward-thinking abilities and now we will suffer the consequences. Here's a truism: to be able to get to next year first you have to get through this year. And by March 2020 getting through that year as a country was hugely at risk. |
|
|
|
Post by Pacifico on Nov 12, 2022 11:32:36 GMT
Exactly - they were following the SAGE recommendations. They were not following anyone's recommendations in Jan 2020. Stop trying to make excuses. Don't be daft - the Government was following SAGE recommendations with the full support of the Labour Party |
|
|
|
Post by Steve on Nov 12, 2022 11:38:26 GMT
They were not following anyone's recommendations in Jan 2020. Stop trying to make excuses. Don't be daft - the Government was following SAGE recommendations with the full support of the Labour Party Debatable but by early March 2020 they weren't following SAGE and as Labour pointed out the government was 'behind the curve' |
|
Fortunately it doesn't work like that. Modelling viral infections is more complex than that.
