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Post by Red Rackham on Dec 9, 2022 17:48:48 GMT
Reform is polling at almost half of the Conservative vote share, a poll published on Friday has suggested. The Conservatives are down one percentage point to 20 per cent in the latest survey carried out by People Polling, a firm founded in recent months by academic and pollster Matthew Goodwin. Reform, led by Richard Tice, are on nine per cent and have increased their share of the vote. Sir Keir Starmer's Labour has increased its lead by one percentage point, polling at 47 per cent. The Tories fell to a low of 14 per cent in People Polling data on October 21 as Liz Truss's government rapidly collapsed. But Friday's polling suggests there is a growing threat on the Right for Mr Sunak amid fears of an exodus to Reform, as well as appearing to confirm any "honeymoon period" enjoyed by the Prime Minister is over. www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/12/09/rishi-sunak-news-strikes-tories-asylum-starmer-labour/On the face of it Reform are doing quite well, but will success for Reform be better news for Keir Starmer? |
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Post by Pacifico on Dec 9, 2022 17:51:56 GMT
Starmer is odds on to win the next election and I cant see the Tories changing the situation round in 18 months - whatever Reform do.
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Post by Einhorn on Dec 9, 2022 17:52:29 GMT
Reform is polling at almost half of the Conservative vote share, a poll published on Friday has suggested. The Conservatives are down one percentage point to 20 per cent in the latest survey carried out by People Polling, a firm founded in recent months by academic and pollster Matthew Goodwin. Reform, led by Richard Tice, are on nine per cent and have increased their share of the vote. Sir Keir Starmer's Labour has increased its lead by one percentage point, polling at 47 per cent. The Tories fell to a low of 14 per cent in People Polling data on October 21 as Liz Truss's government rapidly collapsed. But Friday's polling suggests there is a growing threat on the Right for Mr Sunak amid fears of an exodus to Reform, as well as appearing to confirm any "honeymoon period" enjoyed by the Prime Minister is over. www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/12/09/rishi-sunak-news-strikes-tories-asylum-starmer-labour/On the face of it Reform are doing quite well, but will success for Reform be better news for Keir Starmer? Excellent news! That spells disaster in the FPTP system! |
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Post by Red Rackham on Dec 9, 2022 18:35:24 GMT
Starmer is odds on to win the next election and I cant see the Tories changing the situation round in 18 months - whatever Reform do. I think good turnout for Reform will be a big help for Labour. Reform are more likely to take Tory votes than Labour votes. |
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Post by Red Rackham on Dec 9, 2022 18:36:28 GMT
Reform is polling at almost half of the Conservative vote share, a poll published on Friday has suggested. The Conservatives are down one percentage point to 20 per cent in the latest survey carried out by People Polling, a firm founded in recent months by academic and pollster Matthew Goodwin. Reform, led by Richard Tice, are on nine per cent and have increased their share of the vote. Sir Keir Starmer's Labour has increased its lead by one percentage point, polling at 47 per cent. The Tories fell to a low of 14 per cent in People Polling data on October 21 as Liz Truss's government rapidly collapsed. But Friday's polling suggests there is a growing threat on the Right for Mr Sunak amid fears of an exodus to Reform, as well as appearing to confirm any "honeymoon period" enjoyed by the Prime Minister is over. www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/12/09/rishi-sunak-news-strikes-tories-asylum-starmer-labour/On the face of it Reform are doing quite well, but will success for Reform be better news for Keir Starmer? Excellent news! That spells disaster in the FPTP system! Most unlikely imo. |
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Post by Einhorn on Dec 9, 2022 18:40:16 GMT
Excellent news! That spells disaster in the FPTP system! Most unlikely imo. I suppose the same could be said about the Lib Dems and Labour. Personally, I see the figures in your OP as more positive than negative. That said, 18 months is a long time. |
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Post by om15 on Dec 9, 2022 18:48:09 GMT
I think that many current Tory voters who are interested in Reform are the former Red Wall Labour supporters. As I mentioned on another thread pressure from Reform may induce a shift to the right in the Tory party, but I don't think that we will see many (if any) Reform MPs.
But look at what has happened in the past 2 years, anything could happen in the next two years.
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Post by dappy on Dec 9, 2022 19:03:58 GMT
Other polls published today and yesterday have Reform static at 5%. Clearly though if Reform do gain support, it is likely to make it even harder for the Tories to post a decent result. Labour and the Libs have been splitting the “progressive” votes for years while the “right wing” vote has been fairly unified. May be different next time as I think the legacy of Johnson and Truss may make tactical voting on the progressive side more prevalent. Wonder if Reform will get squeezed when reality of Election Day comes - be surprised if they win any seats.
Despite their big poll lead still not sure it’s better than 50-50 whether Labour get a majority. Hard to see them not forming Government though. Hopefully by the 2028/2029 election we will have PR in place allowing people to cote for the party they are closest too.
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Post by borchester on Dec 9, 2022 20:05:48 GMT
I think that many current Tory voters who are interested in Reform are the former Red Wall Labour supporters. As I mentioned on another thread pressure from Reform may induce a shift to the right in the Tory party, but I don't think that we will see many (if any) Reform MPs. But look at what has happened in the past 2 years, anything could happen in the next two years. That is a thought.
The impression was always that the Red Wall voters who had reluctantly moved to the right. I never thought that they felt that the Tories had not moved far enough.
Clearly we live in interesting times
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Post by borchester on Dec 9, 2022 20:15:53 GMT
Other polls published today and yesterday have Reform static at 5%. Clearly though if Reform do gain support, it is likely to make it even harder for the Tories to post a decent result. Labour and the Libs have been splitting the “progressive” votes for years while the “right wing” vote has been fairly unified. May be different next time as I think the legacy of Johnson and Truss may make tactical voting on the progressive side more prevalent. Wonder if Reform will get squeezed when reality of Election Day comes - be surprised if they win any seats. Despite their big poll lead still not sure it’s better than 50-50 whether Labour get a majority. Hard to see them not forming Government though. Hopefully by the 2028/2029 election we will have PR in place allowing people to cote for the party they are closest too.
These guys show Labour with 48% of the vote, the Tories at 27% and reform at 5%.
A couple of riders..
(a) The poll has not been updated in 11 days, which is unusual
(b) Although the Tory vote is so low that it would need a step ladder to touch a snake's belly, it has actually increased over the last couple of months
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Post by Deleted on Dec 9, 2022 20:58:26 GMT
Reform is polling at almost half of the Conservative vote share, a poll published on Friday has suggested. The Conservatives are down one percentage point to 20 per cent in the latest survey carried out by People Polling, a firm founded in recent months by academic and pollster Matthew Goodwin. Reform, led by Richard Tice, are on nine per cent and have increased their share of the vote. Sir Keir Starmer's Labour has increased its lead by one percentage point, polling at 47 per cent. The Tories fell to a low of 14 per cent in People Polling data on October 21 as Liz Truss's government rapidly collapsed. But Friday's polling suggests there is a growing threat on the Right for Mr Sunak amid fears of an exodus to Reform, as well as appearing to confirm any "honeymoon period" enjoyed by the Prime Minister is over. www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/12/09/rishi-sunak-news-strikes-tories-asylum-starmer-labour/On the face of it Reform are doing quite well, but will success for Reform be better news for Keir Starmer? Reform doing nowhere near well enough to actually win seats under FPTP but taking enough votes off the Tories to lose the latter many dozens of seats or worse could be disastrous for the Tories. Splitting the right wing vote in this way can only play into the hands of Starmer. |
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Post by Red Rackham on Dec 9, 2022 21:09:01 GMT
Reform doing nowhere near well enough to actually win seats under FPTP but taking enough votes off the Tories to lose the latter many dozens of seats or worse could be disastrous for the Tories. Splitting the right wing vote in this way can only play into the hands of Starmer. I agree, it's not about seats. It's about votes. |
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Post by steppenwolf on Dec 10, 2022 7:23:20 GMT
The Tories lost any chance of winning when they imposed Sunak on the country. They lost at least 30% of their voters when they did that. Should've stuck with Boris. If they still had Boris and IF they managed to sort out the immigration problems they would have still won the next GE. But they've screwed it now.
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Post by sheepy on Dec 10, 2022 7:46:03 GMT
The Tories lost any chance of winning when they imposed Sunak on the country. They lost at least 30% of their voters when they did that. Should've stuck with Boris. If they still had Boris and IF they managed to sort out the immigration problems they would have still won the next GE. But they've screwed it now. They have created the usual cycle of disillusionment, hopefully voters won't fall for it again, if they do, be it on their own heads this time. They know full well voting for the Westminster party won't work in their best interests, or should do by now. They spend their days creating illusions. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 10, 2022 7:59:51 GMT
The Tories lost any chance of winning when they imposed Sunak on the country. They lost at least 30% of their voters when they did that. Should've stuck with Boris. If they still had Boris and IF they managed to sort out the immigration problems they would have still won the next GE. But they've screwed it now. This utterly refuses to recognise what a liability Boris himself had already become. The Tories were already destined for defeat with him at the helm. His serial dishonesty and lack of integrity was undermining both him and his party. He had become utterly toxic. Of course the Tories made a disastrous decision in replacing him with Truss which greatly worsened their situation. And Sunak is unlikely to undo much of that damage by presiding over an economy in which we are all getting poorer. But neither would Boris. |
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