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Post by Vinny on Aug 15, 2024 12:04:20 GMT
We can divest and reindustrialise.
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Post by Pacifico on Aug 15, 2024 14:15:05 GMT
The problem China has is that they need to export to achieve growth - their domestic market cannot support the economy. Since the pandemic western businesses and countries around the globe have been reshoring production which is causing increasing trouble for China as they lose customers.
The real estate sector is already a disaster zone and car production is going the same way. Two many businesses chasing a finite amount of customers is leading to massive losses - the economy is stuttering and the Government looks to be at a loss of what to do about it except keep trying to bail out failed companies.
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Post by Bentley on Aug 15, 2024 15:03:04 GMT
China might make a fortune selling us Net Zero technology and products while using more and more gas and coal.
It’s a bit of a pickle for the cult of net zero.
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Post by Baron von Lotsov on Aug 15, 2024 21:16:42 GMT
The problem China has is that they need to export to achieve growth - their domestic market cannot support the economy. Since the pandemic western businesses and countries around the globe have been reshoring production which is causing increasing trouble for China as they lose customers. The real estate sector is already a disaster zone and car production is going the same way. Two many businesses chasing a finite amount of customers is leading to massive losses - the economy is stuttering and the Government looks to be at a loss of what to do about it except keep trying to bail out failed companies. Last time I saw the figures, US imports from China were up, not down. What has changed as a result of US policy is US FDI into China has dried up so there is a hit on employment where US firms who set up in China employed Chinese Labour. Apple/Foxcomm are one big example of this. They want to shift production to India. The trouble is the Iphone factory returns are dogging them right now and causing their market share to fall. The Indians are incompetent workers.
Another effect of US sanctions is Chinese firms themselves are moving over to Vietnam so it does not have a Made in China badge so it dodges sanctions this way. The profits go to China, but again local jobs are hit. There is also a downturn in global trade due to the problems with the dollar exchange rate so many countries are strapped for cash. Anyway, as you say, they need to export more due to local demand being weak re the jobs situation. Robots in China are replacing jobs and so I expect them to ramp up export production. This is currently happening with EVs and one main reason why Western car sales are dismal and getting worse. China is dropping prices so over there their inflation is near zero. A lot of products are actually being made cheaper.
The situation with the housing market is it was essentially a financial investment bubble verging on a Ponzi scheme. The reason it crashed when it did was the main firms running the scheme had not factored on covid in their financial planning, hence it went tits up. Financial bubbles though are bad, so logically it is worse for the economy with the distortion than without. It was a bit of a roulette game. Some people saw their properties double in value so are quids in and some are out of pocket. It's unfair if you got caught, but money that never was is not lost. Therefore it's like the accounts were reported wrongly. They looked like they were growing faster than they were. That's all it was, so now the government are deflating the bubble things will get back to normal; and they will be better off for it.
The mainstream media is full of shit to use it as proof of impending doom. They are not economists. besides they have new industries they are ready to set going. One is chip production, another is pharmaceuticals and a third one is commercial airliners, re COMEC.
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Post by Bentley on Aug 15, 2024 21:26:42 GMT
China is the workshop of the world .
Let’s not bury our heads in the sand .
The West exported its manufacturing base in the late 20th century.
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Post by Vinny on Aug 15, 2024 21:44:03 GMT
And that was a mistake.
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Post by Bentley on Aug 15, 2024 21:46:56 GMT
It was a cynical move from the West. The workers were getting uppity and the technology was developed to make money from paper shuffling . Noam Chomsky wrote a book about it . He’s not the only one . |
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Post by Pacifico on Aug 16, 2024 6:35:31 GMT
The mainstream media is full of shit to use it as proof of impending doom. They are not economists. besides they have new industries they are ready to set going. One is chip production, another is pharmaceuticals and a third one is commercial airliners, re COMEC.
Chip production is dominated by Taiwan - pharmaceuticals by India and COMAC is an airliner that is reliant on Western Technology that nobody else wants to buy. |
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Post by Baron von Lotsov on Aug 16, 2024 7:23:58 GMT
The mainstream media is full of shit to use it as proof of impending doom. They are not economists. besides they have new industries they are ready to set going. One is chip production, another is pharmaceuticals and a third one is commercial airliners, re COMEC.
Chip production is dominated by Taiwan - pharmaceuticals by India and COMAC is an airliner that is reliant on Western Technology that nobody else wants to buy. Who is nobody else?
Also in case you have not noticed, the profits of Western chip makers are right down now and their share price is being hit. TSMC makes the latest 3nm node, but most of the world's chips don't need nearly so much complexity, so firms like TSMC have been kept profitable from the contributions in sales of older nodes. As a node ages you want to maximise how long you can sell them for in order to recoup investments, so older nodes sales were an essential part of the business model. This is the 90%. The firm that looks most vulnerable with increasing Chinese competition is Intel, but there are losses across the sector and the supply chain, e.g. in ASML and firms that manufacture the photoresist etc. A lot of this is American technology being replaced due to their self-imposed sanctions. Your relaxed attitude is therefore misplaced.
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Post by Pacifico on Aug 16, 2024 7:29:15 GMT
Chip production is dominated by Taiwan - pharmaceuticals by India and COMAC is an airliner that is reliant on Western Technology that nobody else wants to buy. Who is nobody else?
Well 'latest and greatest' from COMAC is the C919 which first flew in 2017 and since then has gained a paltry 900 orders all from Chinese customers - so ordered to buy them by the Government. Withe respect to the wider economy foreign investors are pulling money out of China and the Chinese stock market has been flat for the last 20 years - compared with the US markets which are up 400%. |
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Post by Baron von Lotsov on Aug 16, 2024 7:33:07 GMT
We can divest and reindustrialise. Yes we do need to reindustrialise. The problem for us though is the ones who were in our industries which are no longer have pretty much retired now, so there is no one to teach us how to do it. The reason our manufacturing was once so good and reliable was due to a very long stretch of development, indeed going right back to mid 19c Manchester.
By the way, I have a video here of the Sackville building. It's got all the old 19c Victorian machinery still in it- like a time capsule.
None of this made in China on the parts. The parts to it were literally made just up the road.
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Post by Rebirth on Aug 16, 2024 7:35:30 GMT
The mainstream media is full of shit to use it as proof of impending doom. They are not economists. besides they have new industries they are ready to set going. One is chip production, another is pharmaceuticals and a third one is commercial airliners, re COMEC.
Chip production is dominated by Taiwan - pharmaceuticals by India and COMAC is an airliner that is reliant on Western Technology that nobody else wants to buy. America are building more fabrication plants to increase their production. Eventually Taiwan won't be in their interests and it's then Taiwan should really be worried. |
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Post by Vinny on Aug 16, 2024 7:35:54 GMT
China is not only governed by an enemy, it is also a trade rival. DIVEST.
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Post by Baron von Lotsov on Aug 16, 2024 8:15:45 GMT
Chip production is dominated by Taiwan - pharmaceuticals by India and COMAC is an airliner that is reliant on Western Technology that nobody else wants to buy. America are building more fabrication plants to increase their production. Eventually Taiwan won't be in their interests and it's then Taiwan should really be worried. They borrowed all the money to build the place and dish out subsidies. The thing is TSMC are in the lead at the moment regarding technology. They were the first to get the 3nm process up and running where Intel are having trouble with yield. TSMC took over Intel's market a few years back and are now number one.
Anyway, silicon is coming to the end of the road. The winner will be the first to use new technology like photonics or graphene. Actually Taiwan are not so much worried as pissed off because being non-American they get less subsidy. Morris Chang now regrets his move over to Arizona, but do remember they did not move their latest node over there. The 3nm is kept in Taiwan, probably for commercial secrecy reasons.
My intuition says I would most expect eventually TSMC and all the Taiwan chip crew will team up with the mainland and Japan will join in as well and between then they will stick two fingers up at the US and create a kind of chip industry conurbation over there, and those in Korea, Singapore, Malaysia will all be part of the supply chain. All the East Asians are similar in persona so you can imagine them having more luck working with one another rather than relying on the Americans. I know Japan needs to do something fast because it is under a lot of financial pressure in its economy. I can see the Japs burying the hatchet with China. That's what President Xi is for. He is chief diplomat.
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Post by Baron von Lotsov on Aug 16, 2024 9:17:56 GMT
China is not only governed by an enemy, it is also a trade rival. DIVEST. As I was saying earlier, we don't have the capital to invest. Most of our assets are foreign-owned, like even the waterworks infrastructure. Conmen in suits sold it all off years ago.
We had some promising tech firms. Deep Mind was at the time it was sold the world's best AI. ARM had their chip designs in the majority of user gadgets and was sold to the Japanese Softbank, and just recently Graphcore was a British firm creating large chip designs for AI data centres and they were recently sold to Softbank as well.
You see where we are? We are high and dry. Pension funds invested in a property bubble and huge shopping centres where the rents are so high they now stand empty.
How did it happen? Well I'd say people like you got the power and applied simple short term solutions. They took a cut, made a few million for themselves and fucked the future.
Here is an example for you I was reading in YT comments. Chap works for an industrial firm and the question was put to them regarding how they sell what they produce at such a high price and yet the cost of production is minimal. The answer was the last owners of the firm decided to do a City slicker deal. They sold all their machinery to an investment firm that now rents the machinery out to them. The owner at the time thought this was a great way to raise some money for nothing. Now the rental charges are so high they can't compete in the market. This is how our trains run. The rolling stock was sold and leased back. It is now a major part of the ticket price, so however much you cut costs in staff on the railways, you won't make much difference since the banks take all the profit.
China is not the problem. China just does stuff properly and above board. City slicker types are not a thing in China.
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