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Post by dappy on Nov 29, 2022 13:43:38 GMT
Rather surprised that Dan hasn't already posted. Perhaps he was disappointed by the figures. Anyway these are the latest figures for England and Wales. UK figures will have slightly lower ethnic diversity as I understand it but lets use these for comparisons
Religion
Christian 2021 46.2% 2011 59.3% change -13.1%
No religion 2021 37.2 2011 25.2 change 12.0%
Muslim 2021 6.5% 2011 4.9% change 1.6%
Other religion 2021 4.2% 2011 3.6% change 0.6%
No answer 2021 6% 2011 7.1% change -1.1%
Big story here seems to be the acceleration in those who perhaps one day would have described themselves as Christian and now describe themselves as no religion - probably most the not particularly fusseds rather than committed atheists. I believe I was in that category.
Muslim and other religions have increased but I would imagine at a lower rate than Dan would have expected.
Ethnicity
White British 74.4 80.5 -6.1%
White other 7.3 5.5 1.8
Total White 81.7 86.0 -4.3%
Asian 9.3% 7.5% 1.8%
Black 4.0 3.3 0.7
Mixed 2.9 2.2 0.7
Other 2.1 1.0 1.1
Again a reduction in white skinned people proportionately but I would imagine a lower rate than Dan would have expected (hoped for?). The increase in minority ethnicity being spread across various groups including mixed.
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Post by Dan Dare on Nov 29, 2022 14:06:26 GMT
I hadn't seen this release yet although it had been expected by the end of the month.
I'll take a look at the official figures but just from the above it's clear that the White British population has continued its numerical decline which began sometime in the 90s. It's difficult to be categorical about the start of the decline since White British did not become a census category until 2001.
And contrary to dappy's panglossian worldview I'd say the figures are just as grim as expected (and they're even grimmer now 18 months later). But more later when I've had a closer look.
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Post by steppenwolf on Nov 29, 2022 14:09:52 GMT
The two stand-out things in this sorry tale are the decline in the proportion of white population and the massive increase in muslims.
BTW no doubt you're copied the figures from some govt website but it's very misleading. So for example the percentage of muslims in 2011 was 4.9% but in 2021 was 6.5%. This is recorded as an increase of 1.6%. But it's actually a 33% rise. Lies, damned lies and statistics.
Meanwhile the white population went down by 5%, the blacks rose by 21%. and Asians rose by 24%.
Do you see where this is going dappy? Can you add up?
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Post by Dan Dare on Nov 29, 2022 14:29:09 GMT
Don't fall for dappy's sleight of hand in creating a phoney 'white' ethnic group by combining White British and White Other.
That is not the important distinction to make. More important is to distinguish between the native White British population and all the rest who are all immigrants (or immigrant-descended) whatever colour their skin.
And since some of the latter will have identified as White British in the census the official figures certainly represent a maximum upper bound for that category; the true numbers of native Britons are certainly less than the census indicates, probably much less.
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Post by Dan Dare on Nov 29, 2022 14:59:30 GMT
OK, the headline numbers, per the official ONS release: - In twenty years the population of England and Wales has increased by 7.7 million - The White British population has declined by 1.1 million - The non-White-British population has increased by 8.7 million (all figures rounded)  |
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Post by dappy on Nov 29, 2022 15:01:12 GMT
As ever Dan that rather depends on your definition. My wife for example is half British half a German wartime refugee - yet she would regard herself and tick white British. My kids are therefore 75% "native" amd hence white other by what I suspect is your definition yet would tick white British - quite righty by my definitions. I suspect few randy young men will seek to understand attractive young womens place of grandparent birth before breeding (or at least practice breeding....) and so your "fullblood" British will surely decline. Its hard to see why that matters.
Honestly I was a little surprised at the relative slow growth of the brown muslim population. Honestly were these figures as you expected or are in truth you a little disappointed by the opportunities for outrage?
And given that white British (especially more educated ones) are not having many kids these days, do you mourn the targeted reduction in white other immigrants keeping the white skinned population stable and keeping those nasty brown people in check?
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Post by Dan Dare on Nov 29, 2022 15:07:42 GMT
Dappy - and as ever the census numbers reflect what people self-identify as on the census forms.
If Diane Abbott or David Lammy, say, decide to identify as White British then that's what they'll be counted as.
But as for expectations, the numbers are pretty much as anticipated given the close to two-year hiatus on immigration due to the pandemic. Things have picked up with a vengeance since though.
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Post by dappy on Nov 29, 2022 15:13:47 GMT
Of course its self identify. How else could it be done?
I sense you are a little disappointed, Dan. You were so looking forward to the outrage too! Quite inventive though t blame Covid - even if you got the dates wrong. Only one year between lock down and census date
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Post by Dan Dare on Nov 29, 2022 15:25:09 GMT
I think the numbers are plenty bad enough and certainly don't bode well for the future, especially given the current levels of immigration. So far David Coleman's projections are panning out although if anything he was too optimistic. Rather than 2066 as he predicted, we're probably now looking at the late 2050s or even earlier for when native Britons become just another ethnic minority in their own homeland.
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Post by dappy on Nov 29, 2022 15:30:24 GMT
Quite remarkable....
As noted depends what you mean by native briton. All those unpatriotic natives shamelessly shagging half breeds - where's their patriotism. Of course if you are really worried about native briton population in Britain, there is an easy way of boosting the numbers by at least one - are you willing to swap Dijon for Didcot in support of the cause?
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Post by Dan Dare on Nov 29, 2022 15:39:16 GMT
Another important datapoint that will hopefully help to resolve some of the eternal arguments here.
Of the 15.2 million residents who were not White British, 4.3 million of them were 'White Other'*, indicating the non-White population was 10.9 million as of census day.
*White Irish, Gypsy/Traveller, Roma and Other White. The last includes anyone of European ethnicity including EU nationals - meaning the fabled six million EU migrants are purely imaginary.
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Post by Dan Dare on Nov 29, 2022 15:41:39 GMT
dappy: I'm getting a little weary of having to repeat this, but for present purposes a 'native Briton' is anyone who identifies as White British on the census questionnaire.
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Post by dappy on Nov 29, 2022 15:56:40 GMT
Ah I may have misunderstood you. My apologies. You are defining "native Briton" as anyone who ticks the white british box. So you would define my kids as "native british" for this purpose but not if their grandmother happened to have black skin rather than German blood. Interesting distinction which says rather a lot I think.
And you are forecasting that that number will drop from c 75% to under 50% by 2055.
We'll see. Frankly I doubt it.
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Post by Dan Dare on Nov 29, 2022 16:02:12 GMT
Coleman uses (or used) the ONS census and population projection data and I'm sure he's well aware that all ethnic category data is based on self-identification.
This is why I said that the White British numbers just reported form a maximum upper bound; the real numbers are certainly lower, probably much lower.
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Post by dappy on Nov 29, 2022 16:03:32 GMT
Ah now you seem to re categorising my kids as non white british.
Ho hum.
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