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Post by patman post on Jun 1, 2024 20:54:56 GMT
Electoral Calculus Seat Tracker continues to deliver a consistent message: the Conservatives are heading for a big defeat at the 4th July general election. The only question is: What's the size?
The most likely outcome is that the Conservatives will win less than 100 seats, the worst result in the party's history. The bittersweet news for Sunak is that there is a one in ten statistical chance that the party might do much better. There is also a one in ten statistical chance that the Conservatives could be completely wiped out, taking no more than 37 seats. A Tory wipeout would not be the product of a surge in Labour support. Its safety-first campaign is designed to hold onto the 20-point poll lead it currently holds over the Conservatives. Nor would it reflect the Liberal Democrats gaining seats on a scale the party has not achieved since the 1920s. It would reflect Sunak launching a fresh appeal that, whatever its logic, would emulate Liz Truss's achievement of making Tory support wilt faster than lettuce...
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Post by Pacifico on Jun 1, 2024 21:29:22 GMT
Does it matter what the size of defeat is? - I think everyone accepts that the Tories are going to lose, whether that is by 10 seats or a hundred (or whatever) is irrelevant.
I have seen forecast of the Tories being down to 66 seats (I dont think they will) but even so, that is better than Labour did in 1931 when they won just 52 and yet, 14 years later, they were forming the government with a landslide.
It is what a party does after it loses that is important. If the Tory's go back to believing in conservative policies then their period in the wilderness may not be that long.
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Post by andrewbrown on Jun 1, 2024 23:01:16 GMT
Does it matter what the size of defeat is? - I think everyone accepts that the Tories are going to lose, whether that is by 10 seats or a hundred (or whatever) is irrelevant. I have seen forecast of the Tories being down to 66 seats (I dont think they will) but even so, that is better than Labour did in 1931 when they won just 52 and yet, 14 years later, they were forming the government with a landslide. It is what a party does after it loses that is important. If the Tory's go back to believing in conservative policies then their period in the wilderness may not be that long. Yes, it does matter. Noone wants an unapposed government. Also,the Tory party will need to regroup with whoever is left. The smaller the return, the more difficult that is. |
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Post by Totheleft on Jun 2, 2024 1:02:54 GMT
Tories face being reduced to 66 seats, new poll suggests
First MRP analysis of the campaign puts the Conservatives on course for their worst electoral performance ever
Ewan Somerville
31 May 2024 • 11:00pm
2039
Survey predicts Rishi Sunak will hold on to his Richmond seat in North Yorkshire 'by a whisker'
The Tories could win just 66 seats in the general election, the first MRP poll of the campaign suggests.
The new analysis would put the Conservatives on course for their worst electoral performance ever, by some margin, with Labour securing a landslide 476 seats and the Lib Dems 59.
Large-scale MRP polling by Electoral Calculus surveyed 10,000 people taking tactical voting into account and was published on Friday night by GB News.
It puts Labour on 46 per cent, the Tories on 19 per cent, Reform UK on 12 per cent without any seats, and the Lib Dems on 10 per cent, with a 48-seat gain.
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Post by jonksy on Jun 2, 2024 1:08:52 GMT
Does it matter what the size of defeat is? - I think everyone accepts that the Tories are going to lose, whether that is by 10 seats or a hundred (or whatever) is irrelevant. I have seen forecast of the Tories being down to 66 seats (I dont think they will) but even so, that is better than Labour did in 1931 when they won just 52 and yet, 14 years later, they were forming the government with a landslide. It is what a party does after it loses that is important. If the Tory's go back to believing in conservative policies then their period in the wilderness may not be that long. Also,the Tory party will need to regroup with whoever is left. The smaller the return, the more difficult that is. Why does it matter? New labour or blue labour are just cheeks of the same arse... |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 2, 2024 1:12:55 GMT
Does it matter what the size of defeat is? - I think everyone accepts that the Tories are going to lose, whether that is by 10 seats or a hundred (or whatever) is irrelevant. I have seen forecast of the Tories being down to 66 seats (I dont think they will) but even so, that is better than Labour did in 1931 when they won just 52 and yet, 14 years later, they were forming the government with a landslide. It is what a party does after it loses that is important. If the Tory's go back to believing in conservative policies then their period in the wilderness may not be that long. Yes, it does matter. Noone wants an unapposed government. Also,the Tory party will need to regroup with whoever is left. The smaller the return, the more difficult that is. Regroup into what? The political spectrum is so narrow that they can't even function. Enjoy your state fascism. |
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Post by Red Rackham on Jun 2, 2024 2:23:29 GMT
B4, the Tories will regroup. A period in opposition may not be a bad thing, believe me I don't want a Labour government but lets face it, when was the last time we had a Conservative government. I think after five years of a Labour government the country will be crying out for change, and the Tories will come back as a proper centre right Conservative party, the centrist liberals who have dominated the party since 2010 will be long gone.
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Post by johnofgwent on Jun 2, 2024 4:11:54 GMT
Electoral Calculus Seat Tracker continues to deliver a consistent message: the Conservatives are heading for a big defeat at the 4th July general election. The only question is: What's the size?
The most likely outcome is that the Conservatives will win less than 100 seats, the worst result in the party's history. The bittersweet news for Sunak is that there is a one in ten statistical chance that the party might do much better. There is also a one in ten statistical chance that the Conservatives could be completely wiped out, taking no more than 37 seats. A Tory wipeout would not be the product of a surge in Labour support. Its safety-first campaign is designed to hold onto the 20-point poll lead it currently holds over the Conservatives. Nor would it reflect the Liberal Democrats gaining seats on a scale the party has not achieved since the 1920s. It would reflect Sunak launching a fresh appeal that, whatever its logic, would emulate Liz Truss's achievement of making Tory support wilt faster than lettuce...
Well I'm hoping for a cull on a par with he way the Jews are culling Palestinians in Gaza, because I think it will take something of that sort to bring a sense of reality to the party. |
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Post by Pacifico on Jun 2, 2024 6:37:59 GMT
Does it matter what the size of defeat is? - I think everyone accepts that the Tories are going to lose, whether that is by 10 seats or a hundred (or whatever) is irrelevant. I have seen forecast of the Tories being down to 66 seats (I dont think they will) but even so, that is better than Labour did in 1931 when they won just 52 and yet, 14 years later, they were forming the government with a landslide. It is what a party does after it loses that is important. If the Tory's go back to believing in conservative policies then their period in the wilderness may not be that long.
Also,the Tory party will need to regroup with whoever is left. The smaller the return, the more difficult that is. The Labour Government will get more opposition from the Socialists in their own ranks than the current parliamentary Tory Party. Anyway - after the election the Tories will be far too preoccupied with their own internal blood letting and civil war to hold anyone else to account. |
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Post by Baron von Lotsov on Jun 2, 2024 8:02:59 GMT
Electoral Calculus Seat Tracker continues to deliver a consistent message: the Conservatives are heading for a big defeat at the 4th July general election. The only question is: What's the size?
The most likely outcome is that the Conservatives will win less than 100 seats, the worst result in the party's history. The bittersweet news for Sunak is that there is a one in ten statistical chance that the party might do much better. There is also a one in ten statistical chance that the Conservatives could be completely wiped out, taking no more than 37 seats. A Tory wipeout would not be the product of a surge in Labour support. Its safety-first campaign is designed to hold onto the 20-point poll lead it currently holds over the Conservatives. Nor would it reflect the Liberal Democrats gaining seats on a scale the party has not achieved since the 1920s. It would reflect Sunak launching a fresh appeal that, whatever its logic, would emulate Liz Truss's achievement of making Tory support wilt faster than lettuce...
This is why you need a plan.
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Post by Fairsociety on Jun 2, 2024 8:09:43 GMT
Yes, it does matter. Noone wants an unapposed government.
Also,the Tory party will need to regroup with whoever is left. The smaller the return, the more difficult that is. The Labour Government will get more opposition from the Socialists in their own ranks than the current parliamentary Tory Party. Anyway - after the election the Tories will be far too preoccupied with their own internal blood letting and civil war to hold anyone else to account. One thing for sure Sunak will not be leader of the Tory party after the GE, and the bizarre thing about it the new leader may have changed the end result if they'd have made the change before the election. |
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Post by Equivocal on Jun 2, 2024 8:21:27 GMT
Electoral Calculus Seat Tracker continues to deliver a consistent message: the Conservatives are heading for a big defeat at the 4th July general election. The only question is: What's the size?
The most likely outcome is that the Conservatives will win less than 100 seats, the worst result in the party's history. The bittersweet news for Sunak is that there is a one in ten statistical chance that the party might do much better. There is also a one in ten statistical chance that the Conservatives could be completely wiped out, taking no more than 37 seats. A Tory wipeout would not be the product of a surge in Labour support. Its safety-first campaign is designed to hold onto the 20-point poll lead it currently holds over the Conservatives. Nor would it reflect the Liberal Democrats gaining seats on a scale the party has not achieved since the 1920s. It would reflect Sunak launching a fresh appeal that, whatever its logic, would emulate Liz Truss's achievement of making Tory support wilt faster than lettuce...
This is why you need a plan.
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Post by Fairsociety on Jun 2, 2024 8:21:51 GMT
I'm not convinced that Sunak chose this snap GE because he knew he wouldn't survive as Tory leader until the expect November election, I've always had the feeling this lefty liberal goal was the downfall of the Tories, even Starmer displays more right wing tendencies than Sunak.
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Post by andrewbrown on Jun 2, 2024 9:42:44 GMT
Yes, it does matter. Noone wants an unapposed government.
Also,the Tory party will need to regroup with whoever is left. The smaller the return, the more difficult that is. The Labour Government will get more opposition from the Socialists in their own ranks than the current parliamentary Tory Party. Anyway - after the election the Tories will be far too preoccupied with their own internal blood letting and civil war to hold anyone else to account. Totally agree. If we think back to 2019, Labour were a shambles, and the SNP were a more effective opposition. Eventually the Tories started fighting amongst themselves again and Labour sorted itself out. |
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Post by jonksy on Jun 2, 2024 9:55:08 GMT
The Labour Government will get more opposition from the Socialists in their own ranks than the current parliamentary Tory Party. Anyway - after the election the Tories will be far too preoccupied with their own internal blood letting and civil war to hold anyone else to account. Totally agree. If we think back to 2019, Labour were a shambles, and the SNP were a more effective opposition. Eventually the Tories started fighting amongst themselves again and Labour sorted itself out. But they haven't sorted themselves out have they? They are just riding on a Tory built crest of a wave. |
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