Election 4th July

You could be right. None of us can say for certainty what will happen. But I think you are far more likely to be wrong. Yes I think the polls might narrow a bit and yes the Tories will probably poll a little better on the day than the worst polling suggests.

But voting patterns in byelections and local elections recently have been throwing up a lot of evidence for widespread anti-Tory tactical voting, as if most voters aside from die hard Tories have decided they want to see the back of them and are prepared to vote for whomever can best defeat them. At least in England. There may also be an anti-SNP factor in Scotland. This means that whilst the Lib Dems might poll nationally only in single figures, they are likely to do far better where they are the main challengers to the Tories and take seats with the help of Labour supporters. Also Labour might poll nationally well below 40 percent but are likely to do much better in just those seats where they are best placed to defeat the Tory.

Anti-Tory tactical voting - if it happens on any significant scale - will doom the Tories much more than overall vote share.

There is precedent for polls to narrow substantially. Labour almost wiped out a huge Tory poll lead in 2017, and there is of course the John Major Tory victory of 1992. And unseen events can change things radically, as the Falklands War did for Thatcher. And of course Reform and Farage are wild cards. If they challenge the Tories from the right they are likely to damage the Tory vote still further. But if they do a secret deal - which cannot be entirely ruled out - to stand down and back the Tories in return for a right wing agenda after any victory, then that would obviously substantially shore up the Tory vote.

Because whilst many floating voters and centrists and former red wall voters are deserting the Tories for Labour and other moderate parties. the Tory hard core are increasingly leaning towards Reform. Some sort of deal that involves Reform standing down could radically alter Tory fortunes or at least limit the damage sufficiently to make a hung parliament more likely

You may be right. I accept a Tory win looks most unlikely, I also think a Labour landslide is equally unlikely, and I don't think Reform will do as well as some people think they will. A lot of people talk about voting intentions but when it comes down to it, when it comes to polling day and putting that X on the ballot paper, I think a lot of people will hold their nose and vote Tory. Perhaps not enough to swing it for Sunak, but enough to deny Starmer a landslide, possibly enough to force a hung parliament which would be an absolute disaster for Starmer.  As far as I can see, broadly speaking, people don't particularly like Sunak, but they don't trust Starmer.

I did laugh when one of the comments said lets be fair to Rishi , the welsh are gonna lap up Englands mortifying quarter final exit. 

Piss taking aside , the guy is awful. I dont even think Theresa may could have been that out of touch. Hope he doesn't stumble into a Scottish fan zone in Munich with his morris dancing bells on asking how everyone is. What a leg end that man is.