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Post by Red Rackham on May 4, 2024 20:46:39 GMT
Labour set to 'fall short of overall majority' as Keir Starmer dealt brutal blowLatest figures from the local elections have revealed that while Labour is on course to be the largest party, it is set to fall short of gaining an overall majority at the next general election. It is currently estimated that Labour are on 35 percent. This indicates that Labour is set to win 294 seats and overtaking the Conservatives if changes in vote share occur uniformly across each of the newly-drawn constituencies for the next general election - expected to take place in the second half of this year which means Keir Starmer's party would be 32 seats short of a Commons majority. www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1895443/Labour-projection-no-overall-majorityLabour may win the general election, but any thoughts of a landslide victory is for the birds. Behind the scenes Starmer will be far more worried than Sunak, who is expected to lose.
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Post by witchfinder on May 4, 2024 21:26:17 GMT
The reasoning behind this conclusion are very misleading, for a start, read this sentence contained in the Daily Express article ... "Latest figures from the local elections"
The local elections have been held only in England and Wales, and the conclusion that we are supposedly heading towards a hung Parliament takes absolutely no consideration of Scotland what so ever.
Secondly, it is well known that many people vote differently in different elections, proven by the media talking to people on Teesside, where Ben Houchen has a huge personal vote, but where many Houchen voters will vote Labour come the General Election.
There is very often a huge disparity between "Westminster Voting Intentions" and voting intentions in other types of elections.
Generally, people are pissed off with the Tories, the local elections prove this, but in SOME instances personalities are more popular than politics. The ONLY Westminster election on Thursday was in Blackpool, and the swing towards Labout from the Conservatives speaks volumes.
On current Westminster Voting Intentions, the Tories are well and truly DOOMED
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Post by andrewbrown on May 4, 2024 21:45:49 GMT
I had 3 votes on Thursday, although I spoiled one of them. Which one are they counting?
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Post by dodgydave on May 4, 2024 23:11:33 GMT
Local election results don't mean shit because (1) the turnout is so low (2) people use them as a protest vote.
All that local elections reveal is just how stupid the electorate is. Imagine voting on national issues for the place you have to live lol.
Labour will get a slim majority, but not a Blair size one because of Scotland. I'm pretty sure the Tories will do a deal with Reform and use tactical voting so that Reform can try to win some seats off Labour.
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Post by Red Rackham on May 4, 2024 23:44:49 GMT
The reasoning behind this conclusion are very misleading, for a start, read this sentence contained in the Daily Express article ... "Latest figures from the local elections" The local elections have been held only in England and Wales, and the conclusion that we are supposedly heading towards a hung Parliament takes absolutely no consideration of Scotland what so ever. Secondly, it is well known that many people vote differently in different elections, proven by the media talking to people on Teesside, where Ben Houchen has a huge personal vote, but where many Houchen voters will vote Labour come the General Election. There is very often a huge disparity between "Westminster Voting Intentions" and voting intentions in other types of elections. Generally, people are pissed off with the Tories, the local elections prove this, but in SOME instances personalities are more popular than politics. The ONLY Westminster election on Thursday was in Blackpool, and the swing towards Labout from the Conservatives speaks volumes. On current Westminster Voting Intentions, the Tories are well and truly DOOMED Well no, the conclusions are not all that misleading, depending on your political beliefs I suppose. There maybe 30% of people in Scotland who vote Labour and 15% who vote Conservative, who knows. The fact is, and notwithstanding Scotland, the figs in the Express are accurate. Of course people vote differently in local elections compared to general elections. Which is why behind closed doors Starmer will be worried. He knows Tory voters are pissed off with the the government which is why he is being very quiet about a future Labour governments policies. But are they pissed off enough to vote Labour in a general election? I certainly wouldn't put money on it. |
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Post by Red Rackham on May 4, 2024 23:53:28 GMT
Local election results don't mean shit because (1) the turnout is so low (2) people use them as a protest vote. All that local elections reveal is just how stupid the electorate is. Imagine voting on national issues for the place you have to live lol. Labour will get a slim majority, but not a Blair size one because of Scotland. I'm pretty sure the Tories will do a deal with Reform and use tactical voting so that Reform can try to win some seats off Labour. I agree, people are confusing local and general elections and Labour MP's are making the most of it, but they're two different animals. Labour may win the general election but not by much certainly not by a landslide and any thought of a deal between the Tories and Reform has of course been ruled out, for now. |
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Post by ProVeritas on May 5, 2024 0:05:10 GMT
Labour have no call to be celebrating the Local Election results.
Labour picked up significantly less than 50% of the Tories' losses - they need to be clearing 50%+ to have any real chance of having a working majority in a GE.
This at a time when the Tories are in such disarray, and the Tory Leadership Brand seen as being either so toxic, or so incompetent (actually its both) that barely a week passes without some credible news headlines that there will be yet another Tory leadership campaign.
Labour did not do as well as they need to because they are, rightly IMO, not seen as offering a significantly different agenda to the Tories; there's just no enough clear water between the two of them for Labour to stand out as different.
With all the negative press the Tories have been getting, most of it completely justifiable, Starmer's popularity rating has never once been higher than Ed Milibands, that is how piss-poor Starmer is; and it is dragging the Labour party down as well.
Labour will not "win" the next General Election, they'll inherit it because they will be, only marginally, the least piss-poor option.
All The Best
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Post by Pacifico on May 5, 2024 6:42:50 GMT
Local election results don't mean shit because (1) the turnout is so low (2) people use them as a protest vote. All that local elections reveal is just how stupid the electorate is. Imagine voting on national issues for the place you have to live lol.
Imagine voting on international issues in a country 3000 miles away - that will certainly get your bins emptied and potholes filled.. |
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Post by johnofgwent on May 5, 2024 7:03:24 GMT
The local elections have been held only in England and Wales, and the conclusion that we are supposedly heading towards a hung Parliament takes absolutely no consideration of Scotland what so ever. On current Westminster Voting Intentions, the Tories are well and truly DOOMED I've taken two of your points that clearly need further work.
With the Ayatollah Humvee's departure Scotland seems to have denied Labour's passport to a Scottish Election that would have answered your thoughts with reality as opposed to speculation, but i think Labour are less likely to make gains from scotland than you might hope in your dreams, and let us be honest with Labour circlling like salivating vultures around the SNP corpse that unexpectedly reanimated, I rather suspect Swinney's coronation will provide a westminsyer party whose ideas on negoatiation exceed even Salmand's insane demands that sunk a 2010 Gordon Brown minority Premiership
On your second point, your clear near osgasmic joy exclipses the stark fact that to those of us with less blatant leanings to the asinine left, The Conservative VOTER has for about two years now at least been resigned to defeat at the polling booth, an event foretold by the coronation of the greasy indian and his chancellor more than happy to leave the country in fear of the electricity bill. Whereas Starmer has for a similar time been salivating in expectation of extreme victory eclipsing BoJo 2019 and is about to beome severely disappointed
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Post by johnofgwent on May 5, 2024 7:05:39 GMT
Labour have no call to be celebrating the Local Election results. Labour picked up significantly less than 50% of the Tories' losses - they need to be clearing 50%+ to have any real chance of having a working majority in a GE. This at a time when the Tories are in such disarray, and the Tory Leadership Brand seen as being either so toxic, or so incompetent (actually its both) that barely a week passes without some credible news headlines that there will be yet another Tory leadership campaign. Labour did not do as well as they need to because they are, rightly IMO, not seen as offering a significantly different agenda to the Tories; there's just no enough clear water between the two of them for Labour to stand out as different. With all the negative press the Tories have been getting, most of it completely justifiable, Starmer's popularity rating has never once been higher than Ed Milibands, that is how piss-poor Starmer is; and it is dragging the Labour party down as well. Labour will not "win" the next General Election, they'll inherit it because they will be, only marginally, the least piss-poor option. All The Best ^this absolutely 100% agree (and obvious to anyone actually analysing the results) |
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Post by jonksy on May 5, 2024 7:19:52 GMT
Pie in the sky....Or wishfull tory thinking? If the Tories hold their nerve, millions could still return to fold... For instance, if Rishi Sunak says he can still win, an 'impartial' news bulletin will report that he 'insists' he can, a verb clearly expressing doubt that he is right. Yet none of those who ceaselessly presume the outcome of the poll can possibly know it. As quickly as pollsters develop methods that correct their past mistakes, new variables come into play. And the pollsters' language suggests much more movement than there actually is.....
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Post by sheepy on May 5, 2024 7:24:18 GMT
Pie in the sky....Or wishfull tory thinking? If the Tories hold their nerve, millions could still return to fold... For instance, if Rishi Sunak says he can still win, an 'impartial' news bulletin will report that he 'insists' he can, a verb clearly expressing doubt that he is right. Yet none of those who ceaselessly presume the outcome of the poll can possibly know it. As quickly as pollsters develop methods that correct their past mistakes, new variables come into play. And the pollsters' language suggests much more movement than there actually is.....
The thing is, you all keep repeating the same mantras after every defeat for the Westminster party, millions don't return to the fold because the majority have sussed out it is a sham hiding behind the word democracy. The only time the Westminster party last saw a huge turnout was for a referendum which voted against their wishes, with Boris jumping on the bandwagon afterwards and making out he represented it. He never did he is an establishment troll if ever there were one. |
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Post by jonksy on May 5, 2024 7:43:13 GMT
‘We are determined’: George Galloway threatens to wreak havoc for Starmer: ‘We want a hung Parliament’George Galloway says he is determined to bring about a hung Parliament in a challenge to Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour.The Workers’ Party leader has already made clear his intention to stand candidates everywhere.
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Post by ProVeritas on May 5, 2024 8:25:47 GMT
Pie in the sky....Or wishfull tory thinking? If the Tories hold their nerve, millions could still return to fold... For instance, if Rishi Sunak says he can still win, an 'impartial' news bulletin will report that he 'insists' he can, a verb clearly expressing doubt that he is right. Yet none of those who ceaselessly presume the outcome of the poll can possibly know it. As quickly as pollsters develop methods that correct their past mistakes, new variables come into play. And the pollsters' language suggests much more movement than there actually is.....
The thing is, you all keep repeating the same mantras after every defeat for the Westminster party, millions don't return to the fold because the majority have sussed out it is a sham hiding behind the word democracy. The only time the Westminster party last saw a huge turnout was for a referendum which voted against their wishes, with Boris jumping on the bandwagon afterwards and making out he represented it. He never did he is an establishment troll if ever there were one. My paternal grandfather was a great sceptic when it came to "the establishment". He fought in WWII but immediately upon returning home burned his medals, said the war was a sham, and taught his children to distrust authority - especially any authority telling you that some other guy just like you, but in another country, was the enemy. I doubt he would have called himself a socialist, but IMO he was one. He died when I was 10 years old; but even so I remember often hearing him say "If voting had the power to change anything they would make it illegal". As much as I believe myself to be a democrat I also believe that, in this country especially, he was 100% correct. There have been 14 General Elections in my life time, 10 of which I have been able to vote it and numerous local and EU elections. In all that time one thing has been a constant: the rich get richer, the poor get poorer and the poor getting poorer is always blamed on Johnny Foreigner. Isn't it about time we woke up a bit and saw the real enemy: the system that perpetuates this no matter who we vote for. All The Best |
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Post by witchfinder on May 5, 2024 8:34:44 GMT
The SKY estimates / figures cannot be taken seriously at all, firstly because the elections were not Westminster elections ( except Blackpool ), secondly the elections were only in certain areas, not in others. But also just as important is the fact that many people vote for personalities in local elections, and vote differently in a General Election.
As for George Galloway, well lets take the region where I live, he would have virtually no effect on any constituency within 60 miles of where I live, but of course he COULD affect the result in SOME areas with particularly large Muslim populations.
The George Galloway / Gaza effect had little or no effect for Andy Burnham, or in the West Midlands where the Tories were certain they could hold on, or in London where Labours Sadiq Khan won comfortably, same in Leeds, Liverpool, the Northeast and most places.
When a General Election comes, people will go to vote in the knowledge that a vote for Galloway helps the Tories.
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