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Post by andrewbrown on Feb 9, 2024 7:18:18 GMT
There's two by elections coming up next week. One in Wellingborough, the seat of the disgraced ERG MP Peter Bone, who threatened the party to replace the candidate with his partner. Looks like the electorate have seen straight through that.
The second is in Kingswood, following the resignation of Chris Skidmore, on his environmental concerns. This constituency won't exist come the GE.
My understanding is that the Tories haven't bothered to campaign in either, possible indication of May 2nd as GE?
Current Odds (+ Implied Chances)
Wellingborough
🌹 LAB 1/14 (83%)
➡️ RFM 9/1 (9%)
🌳 CON 12/1 (7%)
🔶 LDM 100/1 (1%)
Kingswood
🌹 LAB 1/16 (85%)
🌳 CON 8/1 (10%)
➡️ RFM 25/1 (4%)
🔶 LDM 100/1 (1%)
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Post by Pacifico on Feb 9, 2024 7:24:49 GMT
Personally I think there should be a moratorium on by-elections in the last year of a Parliament - they are simply a waste of money.
Any constituency business could be temporarily handled by neighbouring MP's.
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Post by andrewbrown on Feb 9, 2024 7:42:40 GMT
Personally I think there should be a moratorium on by-elections in the last year of a Parliament - they are simply a waste of money. Any constituency business could be temporarily handled by neighbouring MP's. I'm pretty sure they are not allowed to intervene outside their constituency, and pass on any cases to the relevant person. |
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Post by Pacifico on Feb 9, 2024 7:50:39 GMT
Personally I think there should be a moratorium on by-elections in the last year of a Parliament - they are simply a waste of money. Any constituency business could be temporarily handled by neighbouring MP's. I'm pretty sure they are not allowed to intervene outside their constituency, and pass on any cases to the relevant person. A rule that could be changed in 30 minutes.. |
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Post by jonksy on Feb 9, 2024 7:59:28 GMT
Personally I think there should be a moratorium on by-elections in the last year of a Parliament - they are simply a waste of money. Any constituency business could be temporarily handled by neighbouring MP's. I'm pretty sure they are not allowed to intervene outside their constituency, and pass on any cases to the relevant person. These be elections just a few months before the real thing are a total waste of time and money and will have no bearing in the real thing. Half the electorate won't be arsed to vote especially if its pissing down with rain. |
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Post by andrewbrown on Feb 9, 2024 8:25:09 GMT
You could be right, especially in Kingswood especially where the constituency will cease to exist. However the "mid term blues" excuse that the Tories used last year won't wash in the year of the general election, so they are going to have to spin a different line (on the presumption that they lose both).
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Post by jonksy on Feb 9, 2024 8:28:44 GMT
You could be right, especially in Kingswood especially where the constituency will cease to exist. However the "mid term blues" excuse that the Tories used last year won't wash in the year of the general election, so they are going to have to spin a different line (on the presumption that they lose both). Like I have already stated Andy these bi elections just months before the real thing are a waste of time and money. Anything could happen before the GE which could throw it all in turmoil. |
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Post by andrewbrown on Feb 9, 2024 8:31:44 GMT
You could be right, especially in Kingswood especially where the constituency will cease to exist. However the "mid term blues" excuse that the Tories used last year won't wash in the year of the general election, so they are going to have to spin a different line (on the presumption that they lose both). Like I have already stated Andy these bi elections just months before the real thing are a waste of time and money. Anything could happen before the GE which could throw it all in turmoil. Logically that's correct, but it would involve the ending of the Tory infighting. That isn't happening any time soon, and will continue after the GE. |
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Post by jonksy on Feb 9, 2024 8:39:39 GMT
Like I have already stated Andy these bi elections just months before the real thing are a waste of time and money. Anything could happen before the GE which could throw it all in turmoil. Logically that's correct, but it would involve the ending of the Tory infighting. That isn't happening any time soon, and will continue after the GE. There is infighting in all the camps and no end is insight. Look at labour and starmers dumping of his eco flagship. |
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Post by dappy on Feb 9, 2024 9:21:57 GMT
It looks like Labour will comfortably take another two seats from the Tories building further the momentum for the impending general election and likely further inflaming the Tory Civil War.
Wellingborough will be a key test of whether Reform can really damage the Tories. The Tories are seemingly not bothering to even attempt to defend their seat and in prime Reform country, Reform really need to beat the Tories into third place if they are to be relevant.
Lib Dem’s are not relevant in these two.
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Post by Red Rackham on Feb 9, 2024 10:19:02 GMT
There's two by elections coming up next week. One in Wellingborough, the seat of the disgraced ERG MP Peter Bone, who threatened the party to replace the candidate with his partner. Looks like the electorate have seen straight through that. The second is in Kingswood, following the resignation of Chris Skidmore, on his environmental concerns. This constituency won't exist come the GE. My understanding is that the Tories haven't bothered to campaign in either, possible indication of May 2nd as GE? Current Odds (+ Implied Chances) Wellingborough 🌹 LAB 1/14 (83%) ➡️ RFM 9/1 (9%) 🌳 CON 12/1 (7%) 🔶 LDM 100/1 (1%) Kingswood 🌹 LAB 1/16 (85%) 🌳 CON 8/1 (10%) ➡️ RFM 25/1 (4%) 🔶 LDM 100/1 (1%) These by elections may have been more significant if Wellingborough and Kingswood had a history of being solid Tory seats, but they haven't. Both have a history of flip-flopping between Labour and Tory. Given the Tories woeful handling of the immigrant invasion I'm not exactly surprised they're getting a kicking, although I am quite surprised Reform aren't doing better, and I have to ask, what is the point of the LibDems? |
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Post by andrewbrown on Feb 9, 2024 10:29:00 GMT
There's two by elections coming up next week. One in Wellingborough, the seat of the disgraced ERG MP Peter Bone, who threatened the party to replace the candidate with his partner. Looks like the electorate have seen straight through that. The second is in Kingswood, following the resignation of Chris Skidmore, on his environmental concerns. This constituency won't exist come the GE. My understanding is that the Tories haven't bothered to campaign in either, possible indication of May 2nd as GE? Current Odds (+ Implied Chances) Wellingborough 🌹 LAB 1/14 (83%) ➡️ RFM 9/1 (9%) 🌳 CON 12/1 (7%) 🔶 LDM 100/1 (1%) Kingswood 🌹 LAB 1/16 (85%) 🌳 CON 8/1 (10%) ➡️ RFM 25/1 (4%) 🔶 LDM 100/1 (1%) These by elections may have been more significant if Wellingborough and Kingswood had a history of being solid Tory seats, but they haven't. Both have a history of flip-flopping between Labour and Tory. Given the Tories woeful handling of the immigrant invasion I'm not exactly surprised they're getting a kicking, although I am quite surprised Reform aren't doing better, and I have to ask, what is the point of the LibDems? I partially agree with you - the LibDems are an irrelevance here. I think that there's some tactical voting going on here, LibDems are an irrelevance, so their votes are going to the Labour. This, and vice versa, has happened in a lot of recent by elections, to ensure that the Tories get a good kicking. Whether people replicate this (and the parties, behind the scenes) in the GE remains to be seen. If you think that these elections are about Asylum Seekers, you're not reading the room. |
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Post by The Squeezed Middle on Feb 9, 2024 10:35:24 GMT
These by elections may have been more significant if Wellingborough and Kingswood had a history of being solid Tory seats, but they haven't. Both have a history of flip-flopping between Labour and Tory. Given the Tories woeful handling of the immigrant invasion I'm not exactly surprised they're getting a kicking, although I am quite surprised Reform aren't doing better, and I have to ask, what is the point of the LibDems? I partially agree with you - the LibDems are an irrelevance here. I think that there's some tactical voting going on here, LibDems are an irrelevance, so their votes are going to the Labour. This, and vice versa, has happened in a lot of recent by elections, to ensure that the Tories get a good kicking. Whether people replicate this (and the parties, behind the scenes) in the GE remains to be seen. If you think that these elections are about Asylum Seekers, you're not reading the room. In your opinion. |
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Post by andrewbrown on Feb 9, 2024 10:38:07 GMT
Yes, in my opinion.
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Post by witchfinder on Feb 9, 2024 10:38:58 GMT
According to Electoral Calculous the chances of winning in Wellingborough are as follows
Reform Zero
Green Zero
Lib Dem Zero
Con 29%
Lab 71%
Meanwhile in Kingswood their prediction is
Reform Zero
Green Zero
Lib Dem Zero
Con 15%
Lab 85%
The period in the aftermath of these two By Elections is going to be very interesting, I think the plotters and knives will be readied. Perhaps the move to go in for the kill may be delayed until the local elections in May, but would it be too late by then for the Conservatives ?, and WHAT IF May 2nd does indeed become General Election Day.
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