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Post by jonksy on Nov 17, 2023 17:12:37 GMT
Well,according to the poll that you quoted, the answer was... ..zero. I presume you read the article before you posted it?Well yessss. It seems you are the one who hasn't read the many links I have provided. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 17, 2023 17:33:41 GMT
IF - as the topic title suggests, Tory voters are flocking to Reform, and not Labour, then how is it that suddenly the Labour lead has suddenly widened in EVERY poll published in the last week. ? THe latest poll published this morning (Friday) by TechneUK .... LAB: 46% (-)
CON: 22% (-3)
LDEM: 11% (+1)
REF: 8% (+1)
GRN: 7% (-)For those that do not understand polling, polling MUST account for the current state of play, for example a constituency with a Tory MP with 42% of the vote, and Labour 37%, Lib Dems on 12%, and Brexit on 5% then the chances for Reform are ZERO of winning the seat, as things are this seat would be taken by Labour. For Reform to attain just one MP, it would require a minimum of a 10% swing in only two places where The Brexit Party did really well and came in second at the 2019 General Election - Barnsley East and Barnsley Central, no where else did The Brexit Party come second. The very highest number achieved in any poll for Reform is 11 points, the average appears to be between 5 and 8 So that's 94% where have 6% gone? Many polls only publish vote shre above 5%, so the missing 6% is perhaps English Democrats or Workers Revolutionary Party or Monster Raving Loony Party, or some other lunatic fringe party that dont really matter. |
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Post by andrewbrown on Nov 17, 2023 17:42:31 GMT
Well,according to the poll that you quoted, the answer was... ..zero. I presume you read the article before you posted it?Well yessss. It seems you are the one who hasn't read the many links I have provided. Not sure why you couldn't answer my question then. The figure was in the table. The point that I'm making in this surge of support for Reform will not result in represention in parliament without moving to PR. |
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Post by jonksy on Nov 17, 2023 19:16:01 GMT
Well yessss. It seems you are the one who hasn't read the many links I have provided. Not sure why you couldn't answer my question then. The figure was in the table. The point that I'm making in this surge of support for Reform will not result in represention in parliament without moving to PR. Not sure how you suppose I never answered your question. |
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Post by vlk on Nov 17, 2023 19:56:57 GMT
Rishi Sunak's Tories in 'total freefall' as poll predicts 303-seat loss and Reform surge.
Even the Tories themselves don't want Sunak. Does he even have a safe seat himself? |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 17, 2023 20:14:40 GMT
Rishi Sunak's Tories in 'total freefall' as poll predicts 303-seat loss and Reform surge.
Even the Tories themselves don't want Sunak. Does he even have a safe seat himself? Richmond has been held by Conservatives and Unionists since at least 1922. In 2019 Rishi got 63% of the vote. If he lost his seat in the next General Election it would be a really huge swing - a Michael Portillo moment. |
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Post by buccaneer on Nov 17, 2023 20:22:21 GMT
It is going to be another UKIP situation, a couple of million votes and only one seat, I can't see Reform taking off unless Farage steps in and leads it, but rumour has it that he might be getting back into bed with the Tories. It looks like Labour will have a landslide like we have never seen before. 1970 here we come. Starmer is Blair's sock puppet and now slippery Rishi is Cameron's. Back to the future we go. |
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Post by andrewbrown on Nov 17, 2023 20:22:49 GMT
Not sure why you couldn't answer my question then. The figure was in the table. The point that I'm making in this surge of support for Reform will not result in represention in parliament without moving to PR. Not sure how you suppose I never answered your question. You answered it with "dunno", even though you had the answer. Lol. 😂 |
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Post by vlk on Nov 17, 2023 20:29:36 GMT
Even the Tories themselves don't want Sunak. Does he even have a safe seat himself? Richmond has been held by Conservatives and Unionists since at least 1922. In 2019 Rishi got 63% of the vote. If he lost his seat in the next General Election it would be a really huge swing - a Michael Portillo moment. OK, I didn't know that. However, I'm sure after the GE there's going to be a by-election in that constituency as Sunak probably quits politics after he's no longer PM. |
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Post by jonksy on Nov 18, 2023 0:13:44 GMT
Not sure how you suppose I never answered your question. You answered it with "dunno", even though you had the answer. Lol. 😂 So do you know the answer then? No I thought not. |
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Post by om15 on Nov 18, 2023 9:14:33 GMT
At least in 1970 we had Slade and Double Diamond, no such solaces now.
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Post by andrewbrown on Nov 18, 2023 9:43:40 GMT
You answered it with "dunno", even though you had the answer. Lol. 😂 So do you know the answer then? No I thought not. Yes, the answer was zero. Not only did I answer it earlier, but it was in the poll YOU quoted but didn't understand. |
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Post by jonksy on Nov 18, 2023 10:15:19 GMT
So do you know the answer then? No I thought not. Yes, the answer was zero. Not only did I answer it earlier, but it was in the poll YOU quoted but didn't understand. Not according to my links |
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Post by andrewbrown on Nov 18, 2023 14:31:37 GMT
Yes, the answer was zero. Not only did I answer it earlier, but it was in the poll YOU quoted but didn't understand. Not according to my links That's only because you didn't understand what you posted. Here's the table from your link:  |
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Post by jonksy on Nov 18, 2023 14:33:41 GMT
Not according to my links That's only because you didn't understand what you posted. Here's the table from your link: I understand fully. It's time you owned your shit. |
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