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Post by dappy on Oct 5, 2023 15:33:41 GMT
Next General Election is getting close. We have polls that tells us things don't look bad for Tories but we will also have quite a few by-elections to give us a picture of where we are.
First up today is Rutherglen in Scotland. Currently an SNP seat so good opportunity to see if the recent SNP issues will allow Labour to start regaining seats in Scotland which would help them towards a post 20o24 majority. Feels like a Labour win.
Then we get a fortnight later on the same day Mid-Beds and Tamworth. Both rock solid tory seats with vote share at last election well into the 60s so especially with Sunaks big messages of cancelling HS2 and getting rid of A levels and maybe building a layby on a northern road in 2034, these should be comfortable Tory wins but perhaps Labour can demonstrate progress by getting the Tory share of the vote down below 50%.
Then perhaps in November we will get Blackpool South as yet another Tory MP is caught with his hand in the till. Historically pretty marginal seat this one in the "Red Wall" that turned blue last time. If Sunak is to survive, needs to hang on here but might be close.
Lets see what the voters decide
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Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2023 17:00:31 GMT
A poll commissioned by The New Statesman and conducted by Drilldown in Blackpool South earlier this week has produced this: LAB: 51.6% (+13.3)
CON: 32.8% (-16.3)
As for todays Scottish By Election, I predict a comfortable Labour win
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Post by andrewbrown on Oct 6, 2023 5:15:49 GMT
And indeed, a huge 20% swing from SNP to Labour. If that was replicated across Scotland would result in over 40 seats in the next general election.
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Post by jonksy on Oct 6, 2023 5:53:33 GMT
A poll commissioned by The New Statesman and conducted by Drilldown in Blackpool South earlier this week has produced this: LAB: 51.6% (+13.3) CON: 32.8% (-16.3) As for todays Scottish By Election, I predict a comfortable Labour win I guess the Scotish won't mind who is fucking their country over. Whether it be SNATS or Labour nothing will change and Scotland it will just decline even further and then blame westminster. for all their woes. |
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Post by Red Rackham on Oct 6, 2023 5:57:16 GMT
And indeed, a huge 20% swing from SNP to Labour. If that was replicated across Scotland would result in over 40 seats in the next general election. Indeed, a worrying prospect. |
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Post by jonksy on Oct 6, 2023 5:58:48 GMT
A poll commissioned by The New Statesman and conducted by Drilldown in Blackpool South earlier this week has produced this: LAB: 51.6% (+13.3) CON: 32.8% (-16.3) As for todays Scottish By Election, I predict a comfortable Labour win Yep but only half the voters who could be arsed to vote that did in 2019. Not exactly convincing is it?
Labour thrash SNP in by-election: Hammer blow for independence supporters as Scottish voters back Keir Starmer's party in crunch vote which opens up his path to power (though turnout was nearly HALF of 2019 vote)
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Post by sheepy on Oct 6, 2023 7:35:51 GMT
A poll commissioned by The New Statesman and conducted by Drilldown in Blackpool South earlier this week has produced this: LAB: 51.6% (+13.3) CON: 32.8% (-16.3) As for todays Scottish By Election, I predict a comfortable Labour win I guess the Scotish won't mind who is fucking their country over. Whether it be SNATS or Labour nothing will change and Scotland it will just decline even further and then blame westminster. for all their woes. Everybody gets fecked over, just the nature of the beast. We are here to represent you and things can only get better, until they get worse of course. But by that time we will have built up a nice nest egg and its the other lots turn. |
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Post by jonksy on Oct 6, 2023 7:37:46 GMT
And indeed, a huge 20% swing from SNP to Labour. If that was replicated across Scotland would result in over 40 seats in the next general election. Indeed, a worrying prospect. Better start brushing up on your woke Red. |
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Post by Montegriffo on Oct 6, 2023 8:21:04 GMT
Even the Green party beat Reform.
Doesn't look like they will split the vote on the right after all.
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Post by dappy on Oct 6, 2023 8:25:55 GMT
It is one of the mysteries of British politics at the moment why Reform consistently earn 5-7% of the vote in polls but consistently only earn less than 2% in Westminster and local elections.
They do seem to represent a noisy but very small minority
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Post by dappy on Oct 6, 2023 8:30:09 GMT
Big result for Labour though making a majority for them look even more likely with a number of Scottish seats.
On now to Mid Beds and Tamworth each with massive Tory majorities. But if Labour could say half the Tory majority in each, then would appear they are well on track to form the next government.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2023 9:15:18 GMT
It is one of the mysteries of British politics at the moment why Reform consistently earn 5-7% of the vote in polls but consistently only earn less than 2% in Westminster and local elections. They do seem to represent a noisy but very small minority It's the same poll mystery that might win the next election for Rishi. I'm sure it will be much closer than current polls and by-elections suggest. By elections are notoriously fickle. Like a lot of voters between general elections. |
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Post by dappy on Oct 6, 2023 9:21:04 GMT
It certainly helps the Tories if the “right” vote is not split as historically the “left” vote has been.
I think this year especially as the Tories shift further and further to the right, it would be unwise to underestimate the determination of “progressives” to unseat them. I think we will see a lot of tactical voting to support the most likely of Lab Lib and Green to unseat the Tory. Only issue might be in seats where it is not clear which one is best placed to do so.
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Post by Fairsociety on Oct 6, 2023 9:21:47 GMT
Well all Scotland has to do is take a look at lefty run Wales, things can't get any worse there, the Welsh now know they can't keep blaming the Tories for Drakeford, he's fucked them well and truly over, and they know it.
Unfortunately for Scotland their last leader Sturgeon was even worse for Scotland as he is for Wales, and one big reason central government keeps handing the WADS of tax payers cash, and fuck knows where it's all going, we can see the SNP have been enjoying it (for themselves), but like the people of Scotland and Wales they don't see any of it.
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Post by Montegriffo on Oct 6, 2023 9:36:13 GMT
If last night's vote is representative the SNP are going to have a very bad GE.
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