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Post by Steve on Sept 5, 2023 9:38:03 GMT
No because when it comes to close constituency elections where a Reform leaning voter sees that voting for a Conservative protects their wishes more than just effectively wasting their vote then many will vote Tory.
Farage effectively made those decisions for them in 2019 by not putting up candidates in such.
I don't like the Reform party but they and other not big two parties get a raw deal out of our system
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Post by andrewbrown on Sept 5, 2023 10:35:03 GMT
No because when it comes to close constituency elections where a Reform leaning voter sees that voting for a Conservative protects their wishes more than just effectively wasting their vote then many will vote Tory. Farage effectively made those decisions for them in 2019 by not putting up candidates in such. I don't like the Reform party but they and other not big two parties get a raw deal out of our system Agree that there could be a self limiting factor there, but given where the Tories are polling at present, I'm not sure that even retaining some of that (ambitious) 13% would make much difference. |
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Post by dappy on Sept 5, 2023 10:52:47 GMT
The issue is surely that polls and byelection results suggest that there is a combined Tory/Reform vote of around 30% at present. While I would expect that to increase a little before polling day, its quite a stretch to see them get it back up to 40% plus that they will need to form a Government next time around, even if they can form some sort of alliance.
Meanwhile the vagaries of our crazy voting system means Labour and Lib Dem (and Green) may well get reminded a the Mid Beds by election that if they split the anti Tory vote, there is a risk that that lets the Tories in possibly this time, with a credible independent, with a record low winning vote share for an election. Interesting to see if they take heed of that message.
And then after the election if the Tories lose, look like they will have a civil war between the "one nation" crew and the "populists" who have much in common with Reform. Will the losers stay in the party or will the party split? If the party splits into two, good chance both off-shoots would recognise they need a form of PR to have any chance of forming a future government.
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Post by Red Rackham on Sept 30, 2023 2:28:22 GMT
Au contraire, if the Tories lose the next election there will be a period of infighting before they finally accept the truth which is - there isn't room for two centrist parties, the Tories must move back to the centre right and regain the trust of Conservative voters. They won’t . Conservative voters are dying out . Centre right politics will be labelled extreme right wing and there will only be rhetoric . Neither Labour or the Tories have depth and direction . Centre right politics has been labelled as extremist or racist ever since Enoch's speech in 1968, meh, no biggie. The British Conservative party are the most successful political party in the world. I concede in the past few years they have lost their way slightly by moving to the centre. I suspect this mistake will in short order be rectified, god forbid we should have another left wing pro EU, pro immigrant socialist government. That really would be the end for this once great country. |
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Post by wapentake on Sept 30, 2023 4:06:02 GMT
Best comment I saw regarding the next GE was tories lesser of two evils.
Starmer won’t win the victory some prophecy.
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Post by Red Rackham on Sept 30, 2023 4:40:38 GMT
Best comment I saw regarding the next GE was tories lesser of two evils. Starmer won’t win the victory some prophecy. Starmer and Sunak wont be relying on polls, yes they will be looking at them but they wont be taking them seriously. Pollsters are often accurate, but not always. Remember 2017? Never rely on polls. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2023 12:08:29 GMT
I think they should have four or five leaders lined up so that they do not need to go through any democratic process to find the next one or how about they give all party members a numbered ticked and they can take turns?
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Post by johnofgwent on Oct 20, 2023 17:13:12 GMT
I have no idea who will be the next Tory leader - the only thing I hope is, that for a change, it is a conservative. it would be a refreshing change |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2023 18:05:01 GMT
I fear that Westminster has been paddling around for some time. As far as I can see it is populated by people who are predominantly wet. Office managers as leaders all round. A pro EU Chancellor determined to hold back any potential growth, who looks constantly like a rabbit in the headlights. A PM with little stature in all senses as evident now on the world stage chosen and put in place by a bunch of equally scared rabbits who by believing his own ever present PR thought he would save their jobs. An opposition that will crumble if they get into office once they realise the size of the task and their own lack of talent. Assuming of course that they are capable of recognising either.
Stupid Conservative MPs who managed to chuck out the baby with the bath water imagining that Boris' 80 odd majority made them invincible. It matters not who anyone votes for or when the GE happens, the wars in the middle East and Ukraine will now push Westminster into a quagmire that they will struggle to rise from. Someone somewhere needs to find the chutzpah to rise to the occasion but at present they seem to be hiding behind the parapet - assuming they even exist.
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