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Post by andrewbrown on Sept 4, 2023 16:10:32 GMT
Hmm, interesting, as Red Rum accuses Boris of being too centrist. (And I'll agree he was a curious mixture)
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Post by Orac on Sept 4, 2023 16:16:46 GMT
What Boris turned out to be isn't that important.
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Post by andrewbrown on Sept 4, 2023 16:48:49 GMT
Except you were to present it as evidence that the country wants a more right wing government.
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Post by Orac on Sept 4, 2023 17:08:20 GMT
Except you were to present it as evidence that the country wants a more right wing government. I am presenting it as such (certainly in your terms). In reality, 'right wing' here just means UK standard social conservatism - ie politically where the bulk of the UK population are. The reality of Boris was not what drew in all those traditionally Labour voters |
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Post by Pacifico on Sept 4, 2023 17:12:10 GMT
The last general election. Well I think that is game, set and match..  |
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Post by Red Rackham on Sept 4, 2023 17:42:56 GMT
I don't think we're quite ready for that yet. Elections may frighten politicians but they will continue to be a feature of UK politics, and lets not forget we have more than two choices. If Reform polled 13% of the vote as UKIP did it would absolutely terrify the established parties. Your posts often give the impression that you believe that the majority of the country agree with your views. I'm not entirely sure that's true. If that was true, then the Tory lost support would be going to Reform / Ukip etc, but it's clearly going to LibDems and Labour. You may be crying out for a more right wing party, but there's little evidence that the country is. Andrew, as the election gets closer you may notice that both the Tories and Labour will say as little as possible about the illegal invasion from the EU or net zero because they know the majority of voters, both Labour and Tory, are sick of both. The illegal invasion and net zero are the two big issues that the BBC, Labour and Tory politicians will 'not' want to talk about, yet they are the two big issues that voters are talking about and if you are unaware of that, I want to know what planet you're on because it sure as hell aint this one. During the next election people who choose to vote, and the choice of two centrist parties may put people off, but those who do vote will realistically have a choice of the Tories, Labour or Reform. Clearly Reform are not going to win an election, but they don't need to. If a significant enough minority vote Reform it will be seen as a massive shot across the bows for whoever wins the election. If Reform win as much as 13% of the vote, as UKIP did, then whoever wins the election is in trouble. As you will remember, when UKIP won 13% of the vote it forced the government to allow that long overdue referendum. |
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Post by dappy on Sept 4, 2023 20:16:38 GMT
Lots of nonsense there.
Sadly it’s very unlikely that Sunak and the Tories will be quiet on the relatively minor issue of asylum. I suspect they will bang on endlessly about little else as they desperately seek a diversion from their abject record on the important issues like health, education, economy etc.
At the next election the voters will have other choices beyond Tory , Labour and Reform. Very likely that the Libs will comfortably out-poll Reform and feels close between Green and Reform.
Goodness only knows why you think 13% is a realistic ambition for Reform. In all the recent by-elections, with their chance for protest voting, they have failed to get above 4%. In the remote likelihood that they did, it would of course be great news for Labour as the Tory vote got split.
Once the election is over, feels like the Tories will have to have a civil war to sort out where they want to be. Hard to see the losing faction having a future in the party so split seems a possibility. I wonder if both the factions will then seek PR.
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Post by Red Rackham on Sept 4, 2023 21:15:54 GMT
Lots of nonsense there. Sadly it’s very unlikely that Sunak and the Tories will be quiet on the relatively minor issue of asylum. I suspect they will bang on endlessly about little else as they desperately seek a diversion from their abject record on the important issues like health, education, economy etc. At the next election the voters will have other choices beyond Tory , Labour and Reform. Very likely that the Libs will comfortably out-poll Reform and feels close between Green and Reform. Goodness only knows why you think 13% is a realistic ambition for Reform. In all the recent by-elections, with their chance for protest voting, they have failed to get above 4%. In the remote likelihood that they did, it would of course be great news for Labour as the Tory vote got split. Once the election is over, feels like the Tories will have to have a civil war to sort out where they want to be. Hard to see the losing faction having a future in the party so split seems a possibility. I wonder if both the factions will then seek PR. Indeed people will have choices other than Tory, Labour and Reform. And the LibDems may do better than Reform, goes to show how stupid some people are I suppose. What was it Ed Davey said when asked if a woman can have a penis... 'quite clearly they can'. Mind blowing. Dappy I absolutely guarantee that no politician from any party will be singing the praises of woke or net zero or trans ideology during the run up to the election, why? Because they all know it's a vote loser. No party, apart from the LibDems perhaps, would go into an election promoting such nonsense. I do not think 13% of the popular vote is a realistic ambition for Reform! I assume you're hoping no one will check what I said previously. And I assume more than a year before the election you are already celebrating Labours win? How brave of you, lol. Dappy someone once coined the phrase 'a week is a long time in politics', and the election may not be until Jan 2025. Trust me, a lot will change between now and the election. |
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Post by dappy on Sept 4, 2023 22:19:01 GMT
Oh I suspect climate change will very much be focused on by Lib and Lab. Tories who knows - not sure they have any principles left.
You raised the 13% a couple of times. If you don’t think it is realistic it’s a little puzzling why.
No election is ever won till it’s won but honestly struggling to see a way back for the Tories. We’ll see.
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Post by andrewbrown on Sept 4, 2023 22:46:48 GMT
If Reform achieved 13% that would be the death of the Tories in their current incarnation.
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Post by Steve on Sept 4, 2023 23:04:57 GMT
If Reform achieved 13% that would be the death of the Tories in their current incarnation. Because of FPTP they won't get 13% at an election even if they boosted their current 9%. They might well use their unelectable but still important support in some sort of unofficial voting pact like they did last time. |
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Post by dappy on Sept 4, 2023 23:10:26 GMT
What makes you think Reform currently have even 9% support?
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Post by Steve on Sept 4, 2023 23:11:22 GMT
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Post by dappy on Sept 4, 2023 23:22:49 GMT
You seem to have chosen the best single poll in the last several months. Britain elects gives all the polls. Currently has reform between 5% and 6% - still some way above anything they have got in all the recent by-elections. In fact Reform consistent under performing in elections v polls is something of a mystery. Even in the local elections in Spring they got no councillors at all anywhere in the country apart from a small area of (if I remember correctly) Stoke.
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Post by andrewbrown on Sept 5, 2023 6:16:29 GMT
If Reform achieved 13% that would be the death of the Tories in their current incarnation. Because of FPTP they won't get 13% at an election even if they boosted their current 9%. They might well use their unelectable but still important support in some sort of unofficial voting pact like they did last time. FPTP wouldn't stop them getting 13%, but it would almost certainly mean that resulted in little representation in parliament, unless it was concentrated in a few places. It would almost certainly deprive the Tories of many seats, which was at the end of the day why Farage pulled the Brexit Party out in 2019. |
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