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Post by Dan Dare on Aug 2, 2023 11:21:03 GMT
Between 1984 and 2022 the UK accepted around 1.3 million asylum claims of which only around 450,000 succesful claims, appeals and removals can be accounted for. The other 850,000 have disappeared into the woodwork over the years and are presumably still amongst us.
Closer to the present, 500,000 claims have been received between 2004 and 2021. 26% of these applications have resulted in a grant of refugee or protected status, plus a further 11% on appeal.
Accounting for 82,000 in the backlog as of December 2022 and assuming that all 52,000 enforced returns since 2004 have been failed asylum seekers (they won't be - it includes criminals as well) that still leaves almost 200,000 accounted for.
Where are they?
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Post by dappy on Aug 2, 2023 11:37:29 GMT
I presume this is the question you referred to in the other thread Dan.
you are a bright guy and know that there are a lot of non-sequiturs in your post.
In truth no-one can know the answer to your question, so I won't engage for too long here
In summary
Do I think that some failed asylum seekers are still here working illegally - yes
Do I think that number is likely to be anywhere near 1m - No
Can I estimate what that number is then - No
Are there around 1m people living here illegally - yes probably
Are most of those failed asylum seekers - probably not
Are we very poor at handling and removing failed asylum seekers - yes
Should that part of an improved asylum system - yes - but only part.
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Post by Dan Dare on Aug 2, 2023 11:42:01 GMT
So what happened to the 850,000 failed asylum seekers who have not been removed? Are they still here or have they gone away of their own accord?
What do you think is the probability they are still around? From your comments I take it you don't believe they ever existed in the first place.
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Post by dappy on Aug 2, 2023 11:53:00 GMT
I don't know the source of your statistics Dan but an average of 50,000 per year applicants over 24 years feels about right. I am surprised that there have been less than 20,000 successful outcomes per year but you may well be right.
Do I think some of those that failed are still here illegally - as I said yes. Do I think it is likely that that number is almost 1m or anything like it - no. Do I have a better number - no. Do we manage failed asylum seekers well - no. Should that be a part (but only a part) of a refresh of our asylum system - yes
Not sure I can add any more so I'll leave it there unless there is more of substance to talk about.
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Post by Dan Dare on Aug 2, 2023 12:13:14 GMT
The principal sources of the statistics used so far are a HoC Briefing Paper on Asylum Statistics from March 2023, and the latest (March 23) Asylum and resettlement datasets published by the Home Office.
So all pretty kosher.
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Post by dappy on Aug 2, 2023 12:26:37 GMT
I'd have to see the documents to be clear Dan but for example an otherwise anti asylum article in Sky refers to 340,000 failed asylum seekers leaving just between 2010 and 2019 which presumably would come off your figures. Most leave "voluntarily" - perhaps that accounts for the numbers you have missed. news.sky.com/story/fewer-than-half-of-failed-asylum-seekers-are-removed-from-the-uk-study-says-11603672. I say it again. Do we handle failed asylum seekers well - no. Do some stay illegally - yes. Is that number likely to be anywhere near 1m - no. |
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Post by Dan Dare on Aug 2, 2023 12:59:48 GMT
Rather than rely on Sky's rather garbled report of an analysis by a 'former Home Office chief' I'd prefer to get the data from the source itself.
Between 2004 and 2021 there were a total of 52,170 enforced and 32,525 voluntary returns. These of course include many categories of returnees, not just failed asylum asylum seekers. Unfortunately the Home Office does not provide a further breakdown so I made an operating assumption that all the enforced returns were failed asylum seekers, but none of the voluntary returns were. Probably close enough for government work.
Important to note that all returns have plummeted from a high of 7,000 in 2013 to just over a thousand in 2019 and a few hundred last year. Whether this is a result of lawyerly activity or simply a constipated system is difficult to tell; probably a bit of both.
The calculation I used was:
Stock of failed asylum seekers = number of claims - (grants of asylum + successful appeals + enforced returns).
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Post by dappy on Aug 2, 2023 13:09:12 GMT
I agree the statistics are hard to source. I understand the basis of your calculation (although I haven't seen the source). Frankly I don't believe the number you have come to will be reality.
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Post by Dan Dare on Aug 2, 2023 13:26:36 GMT
Well that's the question, if the 850,000 missing failed asylum seekers haven't simply disappeared into the woodwork where have they gone? All verified returns are accounted for, could several hundred thousand simply have slid away in the night? More to the point, why would they, since the likelihood of them encountering the authorities within their communities is slim or none. the rational thing to do would be lie doggo, relying on the community for protective cover, employment and security.
No need for papers in the UK unlike other European countries, the police will never stop you and ask for them.
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Post by Handyman on Aug 2, 2023 13:53:49 GMT
Add to your list at least 80,000 overstayers who obtained students Visa's and dropped out of University within a week or two and still here after their Visa has expired
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Post by dappy on Aug 2, 2023 14:10:33 GMT
Oh there is little doubt that there are visa overstayers Handyman and probably quite a lot, although not convinced that the majority came in on "fraudulent" student visas as you claim. The best estimates for the total number of people in the UK appears to be between 0.8m and 1.2m but of course no one can possibly know for sure. It does seem unlikely though that the vast majority of those are ex asylum seekers as Dan would have you believe.
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Post by Fairsociety on Aug 2, 2023 14:59:06 GMT
It can't be that hard to track down visa overstayers , how are they affording to keep themselves, the moment they try to register for work, or any form of benefits they will flag up as a overstayer.
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Post by dappy on Aug 2, 2023 15:27:48 GMT
It can't be that hard to track down visa overstayers , how are they affording to keep themselves, the moment they try to register for work, or any form of benefits they will flag up as a overstayer. Personally I blame our seeming inability to track visa overstayers on EU Freedom of Movement.............. |
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Post by Fairsociety on Aug 2, 2023 15:29:29 GMT
It can't be that hard to track down visa overstayers , how are they affording to keep themselves, the moment they try to register for work, or any form of benefits they will flag up as a overstayer. Personally I blame our seeming inability to track visa overstayers on EU Freedom of Movement.............. you could be correct. |
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Post by Dan Dare on Aug 2, 2023 15:31:15 GMT
Dappy appears to believe the 850,000 failed asylum seekers unaccounted for have all slipped away in the night making for pastures greener even though they went to great lengths to distance themselves from such places originally by claiming asylum in the UK.
Places like Kosovo, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Sudan, Eritrea have all bucked up no end since then and now exert an irresistible magnetic pull for their fellow country-persons languishing in the UK.
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