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Post by zanygame on Aug 8, 2023 15:47:55 GMT
Well at least you recognise that climate change effects the jet stream. That's something. There's actually no proof of that. In fact Prof Mat Collins, who's an expert in climate modelling, said that the position of the Jet Stream isn't affected by warming - not according to the models anyway. Of course, zany, you like to believe the models when they say what you like but ignore them when they don't. That's not science. The jet streams is steered by changes in the Ferrel and Hadley circulation cells. These are in turn effected by temperature gradients between the equator and the poles. Global warming. |
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Post by sandypine on Aug 8, 2023 19:26:40 GMT
There's actually no proof of that. In fact Prof Mat Collins, who's an expert in climate modelling, said that the position of the Jet Stream isn't affected by warming - not according to the models anyway. Of course, zany, you like to believe the models when they say what you like but ignore them when they don't. That's not science. The jet streams is steered by changes in the Ferrel and Hadley circulation cells. These are in turn effected by temperature gradients between the equator and the poles. Global warming. If the Poles are warming and the Equator is warming then the temperature gradient will not alter. Unless you are saying the Poles stay the same whilst the Equator is warming or that the Equator is warming greater than the Poles. Global warming does not of necessity mean a change in a temperature gradient |
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Post by zanygame on Aug 8, 2023 19:30:34 GMT
The jet streams is steered by changes in the Ferrel and Hadley circulation cells. These are in turn effected by temperature gradients between the equator and the poles. Global warming. If the Poles are warming and the Equator is warming then the temperature gradient will not alter. Unless you are saying the Poles stay the same whilst the Equator is warming or that the Equator is warming greater than the Poles. Global warming does not of necessity mean a change in a temperature gradient Seriously? Bloody hell I thought you were a bit of an expert. Where do you think the poles get there heat from? |
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Post by sandypine on Aug 8, 2023 19:48:00 GMT
If the Poles are warming and the Equator is warming then the temperature gradient will not alter. Unless you are saying the Poles stay the same whilst the Equator is warming or that the Equator is warming greater than the Poles. Global warming does not of necessity mean a change in a temperature gradient Seriously? Bloody hell I thought you were a bit of an expert. Where do you think the poles get there heat from? I am by no means an expert, I just notice when things do not seem to gel. It may be digging deeper then you are right but Ocean Currents play a part in heat transferral as well as the effects you mentioned. The temperature gradient is the difference between two areas of different temperatures. The Equator has no new record temperatures as far as I am aware and with the thermal equator around 5 N there are no records being set there either. So there is no change in the temperature gradient(s) during the year, is there? |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2023 20:04:20 GMT
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Post by zanygame on Aug 8, 2023 20:15:33 GMT
Seriously? Bloody hell I thought you were a bit of an expert. Where do you think the poles get there heat from? I am by no means an expert, I just notice when things do not seem to gel. It may be digging deeper then you are right but Ocean Currents play a part in heat transferral as well as the effects you mentioned. The temperature gradient is the difference between two areas of different temperatures. The Equator has no new record temperatures as far as I am aware and with the thermal equator around 5 N there are no records being set there either. So there is no change in the temperature gradient(s) during the year, is there? I'll try and explain the basics. Most of the suns heat hits the equator and the tropics. Much of that heat is radiated back into space but Co2 (and water vapour) helps hold some in. The heat that remains on earth moves north and south towards the poles via various means including ocean currents and circulatory cells. As it travels more and more heat escapes into space, but less now because of the amount of Co2 in the atmosphere. The circulatory cells change and move according to the amount of heat and they in turn change and move the jet stream. Similar effects take place in the oceans. Of course there are many other effects Coriolis etc. but by far the main driver is heat. Global warming causes the jet stream to move. |
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Post by Pacifico on Aug 8, 2023 21:41:17 GMT
Hottest on record - apart from all the places in the world where it wasn't. The responses to the tweet are instructive..  |
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Post by sandypine on Aug 8, 2023 22:27:56 GMT
I am by no means an expert, I just notice when things do not seem to gel. It may be digging deeper then you are right but Ocean Currents play a part in heat transferral as well as the effects you mentioned. The temperature gradient is the difference between two areas of different temperatures. The Equator has no new record temperatures as far as I am aware and with the thermal equator around 5 N there are no records being set there either. So there is no change in the temperature gradient(s) during the year, is there? I'll try and explain the basics. Most of the suns heat hits the equator and the tropics. Much of that heat is radiated back into space but Co2 (and water vapour) helps hold some in. The heat that remains on earth moves north and south towards the poles via various means including ocean currents and circulatory cells. As it travels more and more heat escapes into space, but less now because of the amount of Co2 in the atmosphere. The circulatory cells change and move according to the amount of heat and they in turn change and move the jet stream. Similar effects take place in the oceans. Of course there are many other effects Coriolis etc. but by far the main driver is heat. Global warming causes the jet stream to move. That as far as I can see is the basics of the models most of which poorly represent the multifaceted aspects of the climate with its multiplicity of inputs from a range of factors and seems to be the reason that they do not work for the real world. Even the water vapour from the Tonga event that was supposed to have moved round the world in a very short space of time did not provide the temperature spikes that even 'denialists' expected to see. It would be nice if it was all so simple and indeed predictable, but it seems not. Global warming may indeed cause the jet stream to move but we are back to what is the cause of global warming |
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Post by zanygame on Aug 9, 2023 5:55:02 GMT
I'll try and explain the basics. Most of the suns heat hits the equator and the tropics. Much of that heat is radiated back into space but Co2 (and water vapour) helps hold some in. The heat that remains on earth moves north and south towards the poles via various means including ocean currents and circulatory cells. As it travels more and more heat escapes into space, but less now because of the amount of Co2 in the atmosphere. The circulatory cells change and move according to the amount of heat and they in turn change and move the jet stream. Similar effects take place in the oceans. Of course there are many other effects Coriolis etc. but by far the main driver is heat. Global warming causes the jet stream to move. That as far as I can see is the basics of the models most of which poorly represent the multifaceted aspects of the climate with its multiplicity of inputs from a range of factors and seems to be the reason that they do not work for the real world. Even the water vapour from the Tonga event that was supposed to have moved round the world in a very short space of time did not provide the temperature spikes that even 'denialists' expected to see. It would be nice if it was all so simple and indeed predictable, but it seems not. Global warming may indeed cause the jet stream to move but we are back to what is the cause of global warming Yes I kept it simple for you because you didn't even understand where the poles got their heat from. Because of this I devalue your suppositions as nothing more than you trawling the internet for anything that calls into doubt climate change and then copy and pasting it without any understanding of what you've found. Whilst at the same time laughably claiming others lack the depth of knowledge to see the whole picture. I'll bet you never once thought to compare how much water vapour the Tonga eruption added as a percentage, you just saw a big number. Actually the Tonga eruption increased water vapour in earths atmosphere by 0.0011% |
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Post by steppenwolf on Aug 9, 2023 5:58:27 GMT
Yes. As I said Prof Mat Collins said that the models don't predict that warming has an effect on the Jet Stream. In other words when they run their models - which hold all the knowledge that we currently have on climate/weather - and they dial up the temperature it doesn't affect the Jet Stream. However, he did also add that the models "don't work very well" so the fact that the models don't predict it doesn't mean that it doesn't happen. We just don't know. You're too keen, zany, to ascribe everything to warming to fit in with your own views - which is not scientific.
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Post by zanygame on Aug 9, 2023 6:00:04 GMT
Yes. As I said Prof Mat Collins said that the models don't predict that warming has an effect on the Jet Stream. In other words when they run their models - which hold all the knowledge that we currently have on climate/weather - and they dial up the temperature it doesn't affect the Jet Stream. However, he did also add that the models "don't work very well" so the fact that the models don't predict it doesn't mean that it doesn't happen. We just don't know. You're too keen, zany, to ascribe everything to warming to fit in with your own views - which is not scientific. A link please. Here's the concensus. www.carbonbrief.org/jet-stream-is-climate-change-causing-more-blocking-weather-events/ |
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Post by steppenwolf on Aug 9, 2023 7:22:32 GMT
Yes. As I said Prof Mat Collins said that the models don't predict that warming has an effect on the Jet Stream. In other words when they run their models - which hold all the knowledge that we currently have on climate/weather - and they dial up the temperature it doesn't affect the Jet Stream. However, he did also add that the models "don't work very well" so the fact that the models don't predict it doesn't mean that it doesn't happen. We just don't know. You're too keen, zany, to ascribe everything to warming to fit in with your own views - which is not scientific. A link please. Here's the concensus. www.carbonbrief.org/jet-stream-is-climate-change-causing-more-blocking-weather-events/
Sorry it's from the Mail, which I know you don't like. It's a funny thing but the good Professor has never been heard from again  He was probably reminded by Dame Julia that he has a very good pension plan. |
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Post by thomas on Aug 9, 2023 7:38:59 GMT
sandy you are bullshitting. We all know it.
You posted a link implying it showed no increase in flooding , when it didnt , and the organisation behind the link clearly say they believe climate change is responsible for an increase in flooding. All from your own link.
end of story.
I posted a link with reference to flash flooding which clearly showed that in many areas flash flooding was much more common in the 1930s despite some saying it is now becoming worse and saying quite openly that climate change was the culprit. it didnt. Not only that , the organisation that posted the data clearly say flooding is becoming more prevalent due to climate change. A clear case sandy of not reading your own link , and what the organisation behind the link believes.
Further , in various other article , the worst flooding in the uk have all happened either before , or after , the 1930`s , so what are you talking about?
Thames Flood of 1928
Who’d have thought that an event about 80 miles west of London would cause a disaster in the capital? When heavy snow in the Cotswolds, the source of the Thames, thawed in early January 1928, it doubled the water volume and the turning tide caused an upstream surge.
Lynmouth Flood of 1952
Such was the severity of the Lynmouth Flood, the former lifeboat station was re-imagined as a memorial hall to honour the 34 residents who lost their lives.
Great Flood of 1968
6,250 square kilometres of land - stretching roughly from Hampshire and Sussex across Surrey, Kent, and Essex - was hit with over 100mm of torrential rainfall during July and September 1968.
Boscastle Flood of 2004
About one billion litres of water crashed through Boscastle in Cornwall on 16th August 2004. Two rivers, Valency and Jordan, burst their banks due to 75mm of rain falling in just two hours
UK Floods of 2007
The May to July period in 2007 was the wettest since records began in 1776. June was one of the wettest months on record with double the national average rainfall across the whole of the country
in this one they talk about the floods of 1947..
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Post by thomas on Aug 9, 2023 7:45:02 GMT
sandy you are bullshitting. We all know it.
You posted a link implying it showed no increase in flooding , when it didnt , and the organisation behind the link clearly say they believe climate change is responsible for an increase in flooding. All from your own link.
end of story.
You really need to go back and read what they said. Is flooding more likely they said, not flooding has increased. This is the problem with warmists and I realise you are not one, but 'coulds' and 'mays' and 'likelies' somehow all become it has happened, it has not . im not a climate alarmist , and its clear i have read your own link better than you. As i said sandy , its best not to get into the realms of fantasy like zany , with their predictions of armageddon just being around the corner (sound familiar?).
Read the data , have clear conscise answers based on fact . More people than at any time in history , more buildings and land concreted over , building in areas like floodplains humans have shunned for centuries , the list goes on.
Its not difficult to see why flooding could be on the increase , and that it might possibly have absolutely zilch to do with man made global warming.
A combination of natural variation in the climate of an island off the coast of north west europe at the edge of a vast ocean , coupled with all the above could be the recipe for flooding.
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Post by sandypine on Aug 9, 2023 7:54:23 GMT
That as far as I can see is the basics of the models most of which poorly represent the multifaceted aspects of the climate with its multiplicity of inputs from a range of factors and seems to be the reason that they do not work for the real world. Even the water vapour from the Tonga event that was supposed to have moved round the world in a very short space of time did not provide the temperature spikes that even 'denialists' expected to see. It would be nice if it was all so simple and indeed predictable, but it seems not. Global warming may indeed cause the jet stream to move but we are back to what is the cause of global warming Yes I kept it simple for you because you didn't even understand where the poles got their heat from. Because of this I devalue your suppositions as nothing more than you trawling the internet for anything that calls into doubt climate change and then copy and pasting it without any understanding of what you've found. Whilst at the same time laughably claiming others lack the depth of knowledge to see the whole picture. I'll bet you never once thought to compare how much water vapour the Tonga eruption added as a percentage, you just saw a big number. Actually the Tonga eruption increased water vapour in earths atmosphere by 0.0011% ? I repeat I am not an expert. Trawling for information is what we all do as you yourself admitted when you agreed you had to research for information when presented with information by Steppenwolf. I am unclear why that becomes a crime when undertaken by others. It is the making of statements such as 'flash floods are increasing' ' the UK is becoming wetter' that elicits requests for data to back up those statements. It seems the climate lobby and especially as supported by the MSN make many climate statements that rarely have the data back up that any reasonable person would expect. I would not question your numbers but some seem to think the quantity has significance www.livescience.com/tonga-eruption-water-vapor#:~:text=The%20results%20revealed%20that%20160%2C900%20tons%20%28146%2C000%20metric,to%20an%20altitude%20of%2053%20miles%20%2885%20km%29. Tonga's eruption injected so much water into Earth’s atmosphere that it could weaken the ozone layer "We estimate that the excess water vapor is equivalent to around 10% of the amount of water vapor typically residing in the stratosphere," which is the biggest increase scientists have ever seen, researchers wrote in the new paper, published online July 1 in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. The water vapor may remain in the stratosphere for around half a decade, the researchers wrote. It seems now that you have generally been unable to provide data and backup for many of your claims in this thread you are going down the denigration route. This is nothing new in the climate debate. |
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He was probably reminded by Dame Julia that he has a very good pension plan.