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Post by thomas on Aug 7, 2023 7:04:19 GMT
Actually, they're saying the jetstream has dipped by a few hundred miles. When the jetstream raises we get hotter summers, which again is blamed on AGW.  Actually you have to know what causes the jet stream to shift. Theres four jet streams zany , and they vary naturally.
Shifting jet stream patterns can have a big impact on the weather. Jet streams are always changing: moving to higher or lower altitudes, breaking up and shifting in flow, depending on the season and other variables, such as energy coming from the sun
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Post by sandypine on Aug 7, 2023 8:10:55 GMT
By all means use as much salt as you like. I am not claiming anything as regards the British climate. I am providing information that is the public domain that does not support the narrative that we are becoming overall wetter and warmer with much more flash floods. The information in the public domain does not back up that claim as Scotland skews the rainfall. If England and Wales are seeing no change in rainfall levels then increased rainfall cannot be the source for the flash floods. The flash floods themselves are not increasing as the chronology indicates. blog.historicenvironment.scot/2016/02/scotlands-changing-climate-part-one/All I did was refer to the published data and asked for further evidence about the claims being made as regards wetter, hotter. Specific heavy rainfall locally is not a new phenomenon as Lynton and Lynmouth and several other locations can illustrate. sandy , you arent really making sense. We are singing from the same hymn sheet on some issue but not others.
You demonstrably claimed earlier in this thread to me the uk climate isnt changing except when you add scotland in , which skews the data. I said you are therefore making an uninformed generalisation about scotland , as the same principle applies within our nation regarding one region skewing the overall data. That could be said about any country.
Western , not northern , scotland skews the data for scotland , and i went on to point out that these islands is full of regional variations and micro climates, but the general rule of thumb for precipitation is west (not north) is wettest , east (not south) is driest.
No you didnt. You provided a graph showing england and wales (not the uk , not scotland or the british isles) climate over a three hundred year period with its variation in that time. There was no data from what i can see regarding flash flooding.
whats the link supposed to prove? I asked you for comparable data to the three hundred year data for england and wales, and you post some link about scotland over the last century , talking about last decembers record breaking rainfall. So in short , no comparison , with cherry picked data. The very thing you accuse climate alarmists of , and as such , we can dismiss your unproven claims.
I appreciate you feel stonrgly about the climate argument , and i dont necessarily agree with zany , but you are simply waffling for waffling sake. If you cant give us the comparable data for scotland , over the same time period to england and wales , to show me what you are talking about , then im afraid we can only dismiss your empty claims as nonsesne and move on.
There is the flash flood chronology I have referred to that others seem to not be aware of. www.jbatrust.org/how-we-help/publications-resources/rivers-and-coasts/uk-chronology-of-flash-floods-1/This shows the worst period for flash floods was the 1930s for many areas. You could plough through the data if you like. The Scottish increase is supposed to have happened in recent decades, so the trend is this and the 20th century. To be clear, again. I am only reporting the official figures. I am making no claim as regards the weather other than what it is. It is others who are saying, it is wetter (and Zany was referring to flash floods in England especially the South)/drier/hotter when it clearly is not when the long term averages do not confirm that point. They then say that records are being broken in specific areas indicating a change, yet records, as I have shown above, are broken in different localities in different points in history and some stations have only been in existence for several decades. So rainfall records being broken at any specific point is not an indication of anything other than heavy rain at that point The claims that the weather is changing have to be backed up with some data that is both consistently obtained and unaffected by changing situations around their collection. Too often the case made is pure conjecture and based on 'feelings' which are at best subjective and scientifically useless. My links 'prove' nothing, they indicate what things are not what some would like them to be. |
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Post by thomas on Aug 7, 2023 15:39:10 GMT
sandy , you arent really making sense. We are singing from the same hymn sheet on some issue but not others.
You demonstrably claimed earlier in this thread to me the uk climate isnt changing except when you add scotland in , which skews the data. I said you are therefore making an uninformed generalisation about scotland , as the same principle applies within our nation regarding one region skewing the overall data. That could be said about any country.
Western , not northern , scotland skews the data for scotland , and i went on to point out that these islands is full of regional variations and micro climates, but the general rule of thumb for precipitation is west (not north) is wettest , east (not south) is driest.
No you didnt. You provided a graph showing england and wales (not the uk , not scotland or the british isles) climate over a three hundred year period with its variation in that time. There was no data from what i can see regarding flash flooding.
whats the link supposed to prove? I asked you for comparable data to the three hundred year data for england and wales, and you post some link about scotland over the last century , talking about last decembers record breaking rainfall. So in short , no comparison , with cherry picked data. The very thing you accuse climate alarmists of , and as such , we can dismiss your unproven claims.
I appreciate you feel stonrgly about the climate argument , and i dont necessarily agree with zany , but you are simply waffling for waffling sake. If you cant give us the comparable data for scotland , over the same time period to england and wales , to show me what you are talking about , then im afraid we can only dismiss your empty claims as nonsesne and move on.
There is the flash flood chronology I have referred to that others seem to not be aware of. www.jbatrust.org/how-we-help/publications-resources/rivers-and-coasts/uk-chronology-of-flash-floods-1/This shows the worst period for flash floods was the 1930s for many areas. You could plough through the data if you like. Dear god above sandy. You are waffling again.
Now ive clicked on your link , and as you correctly say , its a chronology of known flash flooding. For example the scottish one has a record going back to the 13th century. However , your link doesnt tell us if flash flooding is increasing , decreasing or staying the same. Just a list of events.
Now i have never heard of the jba trust. The authors of your link. They are a charity based in yorkshire.
Heres what the jba trust have said regarding the increase in flooding in the uk....
Has climate change made winter floods in the UK more likely?
The short answer is yes.
bye sandy.
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Post by sandypine on Aug 7, 2023 18:57:11 GMT
Dear god above sandy. You are waffling again.
Now ive clicked on your link , and as you correctly say , its a chronology of known flash flooding. For example the scottish one has a record going back to the 13th century. However , your link doesnt tell us if flash flooding is increasing , decreasing or staying the same. Just a list of events.
Now i have never heard of the jba trust. The authors of your link. They are a charity based in yorkshire.
Heres what the jba trust have said regarding the increase in flooding in the uk....
Has climate change made winter floods in the UK more likely?
The short answer is yes.
bye sandy.
You have to plough through the details, that is the problem. Try it it takes time. Not quite sure what is waffle? I am trying to be clear as there seems to be a determination to say something is not right but you do not seem to be able to put your finger on what. The trust supply the data, the forecast is based on a model and like all models, and we have almost ten years to assess its forecasts it is flawed as its basis is the models on climate change that are proving to be largely very inaccurate. It also concentrated on Southern England and specifically the Thames valley. They describe in detail how the model worked and confirm that time is needed to assess the accuracy of the model. It is the models that are causing all the problems as they are basically pretty poor predicters as history shows us only too clearly. |
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Post by zanygame on Aug 7, 2023 20:39:11 GMT
Actually you have to know what causes the jet stream to shift. The slightly older mantra was that the jetstream will move north as a consequence of global warming. This year the jetsteam has dipped south, which somewhat debunks that theory. Any variation (they are always shifting) is now blamed on AGW, which can only result in even more doubt. Well at least you recognise that climate change effects the jet stream. That's something. |
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Post by zanygame on Aug 7, 2023 20:44:18 GMT
Actually you have to know what causes the jet stream to shift. Theres four jet streams zany , and they vary naturally.
Shifting jet stream patterns can have a big impact on the weather. Jet streams are always changing: moving to higher or lower altitudes, breaking up and shifting in flow, depending on the season and other variables, such as energy coming from the sun
The word naturally seems to get misused quite a bit. Climate change is natural. Its the natural result of man pumping shit loads of Co2 into the atmosphere. This raises air temperatures which naturally repositions the jet stream which naturally causes extreme weather conditions. |
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roots
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Post by roots on Aug 7, 2023 21:05:42 GMT
When all the millionaires sell their beach front properties for peanuts in a few years I'll gladly relieve them of their burdon.
They must be monumentally thick buying them at the previous asking prices.
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Post by thomas on Aug 8, 2023 6:41:48 GMT
Dear god above sandy. You are waffling again.
Now ive clicked on your link , and as you correctly say , its a chronology of known flash flooding. For example the scottish one has a record going back to the 13th century. However , your link doesnt tell us if flash flooding is increasing , decreasing or staying the same. Just a list of events.
Now i have never heard of the jba trust. The authors of your link. They are a charity based in yorkshire.
Heres what the jba trust have said regarding the increase in flooding in the uk....
Has climate change made winter floods in the UK more likely?
The short answer is yes.
bye sandy.
You have to plough through the details, that is the problem. Try it it takes time. Not quite sure what is waffle? I am trying to be clear as there seems to be a determination to say something is not right but you do not seem to be able to put your finger on what. The trust supply the data, the forecast is based on a model and like all models, and we have almost ten years to assess its forecasts it is flawed as its basis is the models on climate change that are proving to be largely very inaccurate. It also concentrated on Southern England and specifically the Thames valley. They describe in detail how the model worked and confirm that time is needed to assess the accuracy of the model. It is the models that are causing all the problems as they are basically pretty poor predicters as history shows us only too clearly. sandy you are bullshitting. We all know it.
You posted a link implying it showed no increase in flooding , when it didnt , and the organisation behind the link clearly say they believe climate change is responsible for an increase in flooding. All from your own link.
end of story.
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Post by thomas on Aug 8, 2023 6:49:55 GMT
Theres four jet streams zany , and they vary naturally.
Shifting jet stream patterns can have a big impact on the weather. Jet streams are always changing: moving to higher or lower altitudes, breaking up and shifting in flow, depending on the season and other variables, such as energy coming from the sun
The word naturally seems to get misused quite a bit. Climate change is natural. Its the natural result of man pumping shit loads of Co2 into the atmosphere. This raises air temperatures which naturally repositions the jet stream which naturally causes extreme weather conditions. sad zany it really is. Between sandys bullshit and yours , this thread is rapidly declining into last wordism and nonsensical rubbish.
If "natural" climate change is the result of man pumping shitloads of co2 into the atmosphere , which scientists tell us started in the mid nineteenth century , how did that cause the medieval warm period , the maunder minimum , or all the other variations in the planets climate thorughout history?
We need to get a room for you and your mate sandy , the bullshit brothers , so you can both waffle on baffling each other with bullshit.
As ive said repeatedly , once we lose track of fact , and dishonesty comes into the deabte which goes hand in hand with the politics , then thats when you lose the majority of people.
I was open minded on this , and have stated what i am against in terms of taxation and lowering of living standards , but it appears the subject is beyond rational debate , so all that remains for us is to hammer those parties that want to tax us all to death in the name of the climate at the ballot box.
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Post by sandypine on Aug 8, 2023 7:34:54 GMT
You have to plough through the details, that is the problem. Try it it takes time. Not quite sure what is waffle? I am trying to be clear as there seems to be a determination to say something is not right but you do not seem to be able to put your finger on what. The trust supply the data, the forecast is based on a model and like all models, and we have almost ten years to assess its forecasts it is flawed as its basis is the models on climate change that are proving to be largely very inaccurate. It also concentrated on Southern England and specifically the Thames valley. They describe in detail how the model worked and confirm that time is needed to assess the accuracy of the model. It is the models that are causing all the problems as they are basically pretty poor predicters as history shows us only too clearly. sandy you are bullshitting. We all know it.
You posted a link implying it showed no increase in flooding , when it didnt , and the organisation behind the link clearly say they believe climate change is responsible for an increase in flooding. All from your own link.
end of story.
I posted a link with reference to flash flooding which clearly showed that in many areas flash flooding was much more common in the 1930s despite some saying it is now becoming worse and saying quite openly that climate change was the culprit. No evidence was provided by others as regards flash flooding increases or the relationship to climate change other than conjecture. The data is in the link should someone wish to collate it and provide that evidence. The link provides a belief by the trust that flooding will increase, with specific reference to Southern England, derived from the climate models commonly used in the IPCC reports that imply world wide flooding will become worse and indeed has become worse yet no evidence to that specific fact has been provided and recent data clearly indicates no increase in flooding events due to climate change. Science is hypothesis and evidential support of that hypothesis. So far the hypothesis supporters are desperately seeking that evidence and frequently drawing blanks and they have been at work for 30 years and more. That story continues. |
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Post by Orac on Aug 8, 2023 7:58:36 GMT
When all the millionaires sell their beach front properties for peanuts in a few years I'll gladly relieve them of their burdon. They must be monumentally thick buying them at the previous asking prices. These guys are obviously balls to the wall risk takers, considering it is settled science that all these areas were going to be under fifty foot of water in five years |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2023 11:57:24 GMT
The slightly older mantra was that the jetstream will move north as a consequence of global warming. This year the jetsteam has dipped south, which somewhat debunks that theory. Any variation (they are always shifting) is now blamed on AGW, which can only result in even more doubt. Well at least you recognise that climate change effects the jet stream. That's something. Your post is the sort of intentional dishonesty that really undermines Mind Zone. |
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Post by steppenwolf on Aug 8, 2023 12:07:10 GMT
The slightly older mantra was that the jetstream will move north as a consequence of global warming. This year the jetsteam has dipped south, which somewhat debunks that theory. Any variation (they are always shifting) is now blamed on AGW, which can only result in even more doubt. Well at least you recognise that climate change effects the jet stream. That's something. There's actually no proof of that. In fact Prof Mat Collins, who's an expert in climate modelling, said that the position of the Jet Stream isn't affected by warming - not according to the models anyway. Of course, zany, you like to believe the models when they say what you like but ignore them when they don't. That's not science. |
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Post by sandypine on Aug 8, 2023 14:46:18 GMT
You have to plough through the details, that is the problem. Try it it takes time. Not quite sure what is waffle? I am trying to be clear as there seems to be a determination to say something is not right but you do not seem to be able to put your finger on what. The trust supply the data, the forecast is based on a model and like all models, and we have almost ten years to assess its forecasts it is flawed as its basis is the models on climate change that are proving to be largely very inaccurate. It also concentrated on Southern England and specifically the Thames valley. They describe in detail how the model worked and confirm that time is needed to assess the accuracy of the model. It is the models that are causing all the problems as they are basically pretty poor predicters as history shows us only too clearly. sandy you are bullshitting. We all know it.
You posted a link implying it showed no increase in flooding , when it didnt , and the organisation behind the link clearly say they believe climate change is responsible for an increase in flooding. All from your own link.
end of story.
You really need to go back and read what they said. Is flooding more likely they said, not flooding has increased. This is the problem with warmists and I realise you are not one, but 'coulds' and 'mays' and 'likelies' somehow all become it has happened, it has not . |
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Post by zanygame on Aug 8, 2023 15:43:34 GMT
The word naturally seems to get misused quite a bit. Climate change is natural. Its the natural result of man pumping shit loads of Co2 into the atmosphere. This raises air temperatures which naturally repositions the jet stream which naturally causes extreme weather conditions. sad zany it really is. Between sandys bullshit and yours , this thread is rapidly declining into last wordism and nonsensical rubbish.
If "natural" climate change is the result of man pumping shitloads of co2 into the atmosphere , which scientists tell us started in the mid nineteenth century , how did that cause the medieval warm period , the maunder minimum , or all the other variations in the planets climate thorughout history?
We need to get a room for you and your mate sandy , the bullshit brothers , so you can both waffle on baffling each other with bullshit.
As ive said repeatedly , once we lose track of fact , and dishonesty comes into the deabte which goes hand in hand with the politics , then thats when you lose the majority of people.
I was open minded on this , and have stated what i am against in terms of taxation and lowering of living standards , but it appears the subject is beyond rational debate , so all that remains for us is to hammer those parties that want to tax us all to death in the name of the climate at the ballot box.
The medieval warm period was A; Not global. and B; caused by very different and well documented reasons. do you even know what a Maunder minimum is? If you did its self explanatory. Before you go throwing your weight and insults around perhaps you might at least try and educate yourself a tiny bit on the subject. Just so's not to look a total prat. |
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