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Post by sandypine on Aug 2, 2023 19:20:58 GMT
But we are not seeing an increase in flash flooding across the globe that is not specifically down to poor human activity in the areas subject to such flooding. The Pakistan floods in 2022 were held up as an indication of how flash floods are occurring with greater frequency and an indication of AGW. Yet the rainfall was within the expected levels just in a slightly different place which had seen such rainfall but not for a few years. Dodgy maintenance and operation of the flood control systems and poor people moving into high flood risk areas was the essence of the problem. Pakistan will of course blame AGW as it means escaping culpability and possibly seeing incoming funds. Flash flooding is not about more annual rainfall. What is it about then? It is not about annual rainfall, there are no increased specific rain events which are all within the norm. Also flash flood events have not increased in numbers as the flash flood chronology indicates. You said flash floods are becoming more common I was actually hoping to see where you gleaned that information from. |
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Post by sandypine on Aug 2, 2023 19:33:12 GMT
The UK has become wetter but that is down to a wetter Scotland; England and Wales have not become wetter and since we are dealing with flash floods primarily in England that is where the evidence of wetter should reside. Since the rainfall, even if it is more common, is still within natural variation why would flash floods become more common which they are not more common according to the flash flood chronology. If anything we are seeing fewer flash floods than the thirties so there may be another reason why you suspect flash floods are more common. The England and Wales climate is not changing and isolating different effects is not possible at the current time so I am not sure why you believe our climate is changing I note they isolate Scotland as the main driver of the wetter trend but then refer to UK figures again just to confuse the issue, bit of a generalisation there sandy. I see what you are getting at , but scotand isnt one single climate , neither is england , but both nations have loads of smaller micro climates.
General rule of thumb is of course west is wetter and milder east drier and colder , and the far south east of england touches on the continental climate.
Oh I agree as I live in SW Scotland and I can assure you it is much wetter than the East. However the reporting is separated out into countries (as well as regions within that). It is these averages that are commonly thrown at us to show how such and such is happening. The UK is becoming wetter they say, but only in the north. It is a generalisation but the generalisation leads to a misconception that England and Wales are also becoming wetter which they are not and if my memeory serves the comment as regards flash flooding was specifically related to England which it was said was becoming wetter and starting to develop a Med type climate. |
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Post by zanygame on Aug 2, 2023 19:36:20 GMT
Flash flooding is not about more annual rainfall. What is it about then? It is not about annual rainfall, there are no increased specific rain events which are all within the norm. Also flash flood events have not increased in numbers as the flash flood chronology indicates. You said flash floods are becoming more common I was actually hoping to see where you gleaned that information from. Its about the amount of rain falling per minute. |
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Post by sandypine on Aug 2, 2023 19:40:22 GMT
But we are not seeing an increase in flash flooding across the globe that is not specifically down to poor human activity in the areas subject to such flooding. The Pakistan floods in 2022 were held up as an indication of how flash floods are occurring with greater frequency and an indication of AGW. Yet the rainfall was within the expected levels just in a slightly different place which had seen such rainfall but not for a few years. Dodgy maintenance and operation of the flood control systems and poor people moving into high flood risk areas was the essence of the problem. Pakistan will of course blame AGW as it means escaping culpability and possibly seeing incoming funds. ive given other answers on some of the causes of flash flooding in scotland and england. Another point is sandy do you see the new built housing estates popping up everywhere? Sometimes three four story houses , crammed in together on postage stamp bits of land , with poor drainage , lack of parking , sometimes many dont even have front gardens , and very little green spaces.
Not to mention as i have already said , many of these housing estates are being built on old floodplains for a quick buck and as much profit as possible for the developer.
part of the problem with flash flooding. The list goes on.
Humans took tens thousands of years to get to a billion people, and we have increased by 7 billion or so in just over 100 years. Isnt human activity , expansion , building over and concreteing everywhere a large part of the problem? you cant possibly begind to tackle climate issues , while governments encourage the mass growth of populations around the globe for economic reasons.
I travel down to South Shropshire quite a bit and the housing estates in some pretty little villages are encroaching and blighting many areas. In North Worcester a large market garden area was given over to new development of houses with the farm shop that was at its heart now being crowded by houses to the south and west. The flood defences for the Severn stop many houses upstream being flooded but will throw the problem further downstream |
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Post by sandypine on Aug 2, 2023 19:41:31 GMT
What is it about then? It is not about annual rainfall, there are no increased specific rain events which are all within the norm. Also flash flood events have not increased in numbers as the flash flood chronology indicates. You said flash floods are becoming more common I was actually hoping to see where you gleaned that information from. Its about the amount of rain falling per minute. Has that changed, do you have data to support that viewpoint. |
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Post by zanygame on Aug 2, 2023 19:58:56 GMT
Its about the amount of rain falling per minute. Has that changed, do you have data to support that viewpoint. That's what the experts are saying. The met office, the insurance companies etc. 315% of average rainfall across much of the UK only last week. |
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Post by sandypine on Aug 2, 2023 21:43:18 GMT
Has that changed, do you have data to support that viewpoint. That's what the experts are saying. The met office, the insurance companies etc. 315% of average rainfall across much of the UK only last week. ?? Do you have a link to the rainfall increase per minute you referred to. Averages are averages of highest and lowest and everything in between. Did the 315 break a record or is it just one of those we had a lot of rain last week. I remember the Home International Championships in 1968, held over one week and it rained all week. Flash floods on the pitch and swimming competitions in the goalmouth. Unusual but not exceptional. |
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Post by zanygame on Aug 2, 2023 21:48:03 GMT
That's what the experts are saying. The met office, the insurance companies etc. 315% of average rainfall across much of the UK only last week. ?? Do you have a link to the rainfall increase per minute you referred to. Averages are averages of highest and lowest and everything in between. Did the 315 break a record or is it just one of those we had a lot of rain last week. I remember the Home International Championships in 1968, held over one week and it rained all week. Flash floods on the pitch and swimming competitions in the goalmouth. Unusual but not exceptional. No I don't. Does anyone record rainfall per minute? |
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Post by sandypine on Aug 2, 2023 22:13:04 GMT
?? Do you have a link to the rainfall increase per minute you referred to. Averages are averages of highest and lowest and everything in between. Did the 315 break a record or is it just one of those we had a lot of rain last week. I remember the Home International Championships in 1968, held over one week and it rained all week. Flash floods on the pitch and swimming competitions in the goalmouth. Unusual but not exceptional. No I don't. Does anyone record rainfall per minute? How do you know it is increasing then? Am I missing something, there is no change in rainfall patterns in England, there is no increase in rainfall events, no one measures rainfall per minute which you mentioned as a factor yet flash floods are increasing as a result of this non change and all of this is down to AGW. |
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Post by thomas on Aug 3, 2023 5:42:46 GMT
bit of a generalisation there sandy. I see what you are getting at , but scotand isnt one single climate , neither is england , but both nations have loads of smaller micro climates.
General rule of thumb is of course west is wetter and milder east drier and colder , and the far south east of england touches on the continental climate.
Oh I agree as I live in SW Scotland and I can assure you it is much wetter than the East. However the reporting is separated out into countries (as well as regions within that). It is these averages that are commonly thrown at us to show how such and such is happening. The UK is becoming wetter they say, but only in the north. It is a generalisation but the generalisation leads to a misconception that England and Wales are also becoming wetter which they are not and if my memeory serves the comment as regards flash flooding was specifically related to England which it was said was becoming wetter and starting to develop a Med type climate. Im not sure where you are getting your information from sandy , but with respect it sounds like a lazy stereotype.
With respect to your point , articles and met office data are showing the opposite to what you are claiming. The "north" of the uk( which as we know can mean anything in englandshire from northern england to scotland to northern scotland)is not becoming wetter than the south. Flash flooding as i understand it in the uk is more of a problem in the built up areas.
Scotland drier than London?
While the north of the UK witnesses wildfires and droughts, the south is experiencing record rainfall
The south of the UK is set to be wetter than the north this summer.
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Post by thomas on Aug 3, 2023 5:48:51 GMT
ive given other answers on some of the causes of flash flooding in scotland and england. Another point is sandy do you see the new built housing estates popping up everywhere? Sometimes three four story houses , crammed in together on postage stamp bits of land , with poor drainage , lack of parking , sometimes many dont even have front gardens , and very little green spaces.
Not to mention as i have already said , many of these housing estates are being built on old floodplains for a quick buck and as much profit as possible for the developer.
part of the problem with flash flooding. The list goes on.
Humans took tens thousands of years to get to a billion people, and we have increased by 7 billion or so in just over 100 years. Isnt human activity , expansion , building over and concreteing everywhere a large part of the problem? you cant possibly begind to tackle climate issues , while governments encourage the mass growth of populations around the globe for economic reasons.
I travel down to South Shropshire quite a bit and the housing estates in some pretty little villages are encroaching and blighting many areas. In North Worcester a large market garden area was given over to new development of houses with the farm shop that was at its heart now being crowded by houses to the south and west. The flood defences for the Severn stop many houses upstream being flooded but will throw the problem further downstream you dont need to travel to england to see this in action. You only need to look at the central belt. I agree though , massively built up areas like the english midlands , south east etc are all having the same issues.
The elephant in the room with all this climate hysteria is human overpopulation. Ive pointed out before scotland (contrary to bbc weather maps ) is three fifths the size of england , but england has ten times the popualtion. England itself is similar in popualtion to France, but england coud fit inside france 5 times over.
Its just another subject , like covid and much else , where two sides are getting entrenched in the debate for a win at all cost , the wider debate is getting ignored while the agendas like net zero , however good or bad the argument is , is being pushed at all cost.
sad.
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Post by steppenwolf on Aug 3, 2023 6:05:52 GMT
I remember that "More or less" on R4 investigated a claim that flooding had increased a lot over the last decade and found that the claim was based on the total cost of insurance payouts for flooding. But, as they pointed out, the insurance costs had gone up because more houses were now built in flood areas and because building costs had gone up. There was no proof that it was caused by changes in weather.
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Post by zanygame on Aug 3, 2023 6:21:03 GMT
No I don't. Does anyone record rainfall per minute? How do you know it is increasing then? Am I missing something, there is no change in rainfall patterns in England, there is no increase in rainfall events, no one measures rainfall per minute which you mentioned as a factor yet flash floods are increasing as a result of this non change and all of this is down to AGW. Because the met office say so. Because the science says so. Warmer air holds more water, causes heavier rainfalls. |
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Post by steppenwolf on Aug 3, 2023 7:23:40 GMT
"Because the science says so". Good stuff zany. Can I remind you that the average global temperature has increased by 1.1C in nearly 200 years. That's a very small temperature increase and is not likely to allow clouds to hold significantly more water.
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Post by bancroft on Aug 3, 2023 9:16:37 GMT
Living in South London suburbs we are tending towards a lot of rain.
Even in July it has been quite heavy in between sunnier periods.
Not for the first time though June was hot and last year had that 43 day period without any significant rain.
I am often surprised when hose-pipe bans are threatened as barring a few weeks now we have regular rain, I can only think we are using more.
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