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Post by zanygame on Jun 27, 2023 17:18:40 GMT
It's a pity that Zany keeps on repeating figures that are not only wrong but irrelevant. Even if 100% of scientists thought that man was the primary driver of "climate change", that would prove nothing. The bottom line is that the models that are based on the man-made CO2 theory don't work. In science that's all that matters - opinions are irrelevant. The theory doesn't work. And these "scientists" are running these programs to predict the temperature of the planet for many decades in the future, when they can't even predict what will happen tomorrow. Since the programs are based on the hypothesis of CO2 caused global warming it's fairly obvious that they will predict more warming, as CO2 will continue to rise. But that hypothesis has already been proved wrong. So what they're doing is pointless. Nope. The survey assumed that any scientist that disagreed with any aspect of climate change was not onboard and that was used to dismiss the 95% claim. The models don't work perfectly, does not mean its not getting warmer, it just means the speed could be faster of slower. They can predict what it will be tomorrow. You are confusing global energy with local weather. The temperature has risen faster than any time in history barring catastrophic events a such as the end of ice ages or asteroid strikes. That fact is not in dispute.
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Post by zanygame on Jun 27, 2023 17:24:28 GMT
Can you prove that global warming is not man made? Do we wait for proof of anything. There is a body of opinion that it is, the problem however is that that opinion demands action from everyone else. I do not believe it is specifically man made therefore I am not demanding anything from anyone else But you are not a climatologist. So just like any amateur your opinion is not sort by governments. Were you to tell me my mother in law's heart seemed fine to you, I would still believe her consultants. I'd still believe them over you even if they got some bits about it wrong.
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Post by Toreador on Jun 27, 2023 17:30:13 GMT
It's a pity that Zany keeps on repeating figures that are not only wrong but irrelevant. Even if 100% of scientists thought that man was the primary driver of "climate change", that would prove nothing. The bottom line is that the models that are based on the man-made CO2 theory don't work. In science that's all that matters - opinions are irrelevant. The theory doesn't work. And these "scientists" are running these programs to predict the temperature of the planet for many decades in the future, when they can't even predict what will happen tomorrow. Since the programs are based on the hypothesis of CO2 caused global warming it's fairly obvious that they will predict more warming, as CO2 will continue to rise. But that hypothesis has already been proved wrong. So what they're doing is pointless. Nope. The survey assumed that any scientist that disagreed with any aspect of climate change was not onboard and that was used to dismiss the 95% claim. The models don't work perfectly, does not mean its not getting warmer, it just means the speed could be faster of slower. They can predict what it will be tomorrow. You are confusing global energy with local weather. The temperature has risen faster than any time in history barring catastrophic events a such as the end of ice ages or asteroid strikes. That fact is not in dispute. My understanding is the models can't accurately predict ocean surface temperatures since they vary from ocean to ocean. Another question worth asking is who agrees the accuracy of the models, is it climate scientists and why have some models been abandoned?
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Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2023 17:48:17 GMT
Just checked this was still in the mind zone. Sigh. I know. The naysayers have nothing and are not showcasing much in the way of intelligence. In spite of the fact that many of us have pointed out the science in simple terms for them to understand. If you want intelligent debate this thread appears to be one to avoid. One thing the entire forum constantly seems to demonstrate is just how damned thick the average right winger is. No wonder this country is in the state it is in. Any intelligent post gets ignored if they cannot refute it. An object lesson in how to believe what you want to believe regardless of facts. One of them thinks the science is all brazen lies whilst believing everything the Daily Mail tells him. You just cant reason with stupid and it is probably best to ignore them which is why I have mostly given up on this thread. I do however reserve the right to respond to any intelligent posts. But at the moment this thread is rapidly becoming an intellectual desert.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2023 18:19:15 GMT
It's a pity that Zany keeps on repeating figures that are not only wrong but irrelevant. Even if 100% of scientists thought that man was the primary driver of "climate change", that would prove nothing. The bottom line is that the models that are based on the man-made CO2 theory don't work. In science that's all that matters - opinions are irrelevant. The theory doesn't work. And these "scientists" are running these programs to predict the temperature of the planet for many decades in the future, when they can't even predict what will happen tomorrow. Since the programs are based on the hypothesis of CO2 caused global warming it's fairly obvious that they will predict more warming, as CO2 will continue to rise. But that hypothesis has already been proved wrong. So what they're doing is pointless. CO2 is known to be a greenhouse gas. That is a scientific fact. It works by letting light in but when it hits a surface and turns to heat it does not let it back out, in other words it traps heat. Another well established scientific fact. CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere have been measured and are known to be twice as high as they were a couple of centuries ago. Another fact. The increased heat this traps is bound to make the atmosphere warmer than it otherwise would be. Average global temperatures have been measured and are almost 1.5 C warmer than in preindustrial times, clearly in response to the increased CO2. And since natural CO2 output has not increased but man made burning of coal and oil is known to pump out CO2 it is scientifically undeniable that the warming is due to us. The sea level is measurably rising as ice sheets retreat. All of this is undeniable scientific fact. Where the problems come in is when scientists use these facts and their understanding of climate and weather systems to predict what impact this will have. This is where disagreement lies in the scientific community because different models predict different things and all are only ever as good as the data fed into them. But there is a broad consensus that a rapidly warming climate will be disruptive to weather patterns and make more extreme weather more likely and for a time will be more unstable and unpredictable. And we are seeing this pattern ever more frequently. It is also broadly understood that the reliability of our staple crops depend on fairly stable climatic conditions which they have evolved to thrive in. Change the climate and many of our staple crops could collapse. Man made global warming is a proven scientific reality. We can argue about what it means for us and if we choose we can pretend it means nothing but better weather. But assuming that everything will be ok just because the scientific models do not agree on how bad it is all going to be is idiotic. Because scientists agree that the more we heat the planet, the more disruptive this will be to the climate, and the greater the likelihood of a global collapse in food production as well as increased coastal flooding and potentially more areas of the planet becoming too hot to survive there. Only a fool would think that because scientists cannot accurately predict exactly how bad it is going to be, the sensible thing is to do nothing. It would be useful if the naysayers brought some actual science to the table, with links to scientific papers or studies. The rest of us can then look into that to see how reliable their sources are. Instead of just saying the models dont agree so it must all be rubbish or whatever else they come up with. It is like witnessing a bunch of flat earthers trying to argue with Galileo.
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Post by zanygame on Jun 27, 2023 18:38:11 GMT
Nope. The survey assumed that any scientist that disagreed with any aspect of climate change was not onboard and that was used to dismiss the 95% claim. The models don't work perfectly, does not mean its not getting warmer, it just means the speed could be faster of slower. They can predict what it will be tomorrow. You are confusing global energy with local weather. The temperature has risen faster than any time in history barring catastrophic events a such as the end of ice ages or asteroid strikes. That fact is not in dispute. My understanding is the models can't accurately predict ocean surface temperatures since they vary from ocean to ocean. Another question worth asking is who agrees the accuracy of the models, is it climate scientists and why have some models been abandoned? Is this what you are referring to. Sea-surface temperature measurements are an essential component in the production of the average global temperature figures. Without data from the oceans we wouldn’t see 70 per cent of the world’s surface and we would get an unrepresentative picture of global change. But piecing together an accurate picture across the vast expanse of the world’s oceans and decades of time and technical changes is extremely challenging. When putting together global temperatures, there are two main sea-surface temperature data sets: one, produced by the Met Office Hadley Centre, known as HadSST3; and another, produced by NOAA, known as ERSSTv4. A new scientific paper in the journal Science Advances has drawn attention to small differences between these data sets, and between two of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s data sets (ERSSTv4, and its earlier version ERSSTv3). The new study suggests there have been some small improvements to how the global rate of warming is represented in NOAA’s latest data set, which warms slightly faster in recent years. The difference between NOAA’s latest data set and the Met Office data set is estimated to be around 0.03 °C per decade over the period 1997-2015 in the global average.
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Post by zanygame on Jun 27, 2023 18:41:06 GMT
Just checked this was still in the mind zone. Sigh. I know. The naysayers have nothing and are not showcasing much in the way of intelligence. In spite of the fact that many of us have pointed out the science in simple terms for them to understand. If you want intelligent debate this thread appears to be one to avoid. One thing the entire forum constantly seems to demonstrate is just how damned thick the average right winger is. No wonder this country is in the state it is in. Any intelligent post gets ignored if they cannot refute it. An object lesson in how to believe what you want to believe regardless of facts. One of them thinks the science is all brazen lies whilst believing everything the Daily Mail tells him. You just cant reason with stupid and it is probably best to ignore them which is why I have mostly given up on this thread. I do however reserve the right to respond to any intelligent posts. But at the moment this thread is rapidly becoming an intellectual desert. The ashes have been fanned back to flame. We are in the hands of the G Mods
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Post by sandypine on Jun 27, 2023 19:43:48 GMT
It's a pity that Zany keeps on repeating figures that are not only wrong but irrelevant. Even if 100% of scientists thought that man was the primary driver of "climate change", that would prove nothing. The bottom line is that the models that are based on the man-made CO2 theory don't work. In science that's all that matters - opinions are irrelevant. The theory doesn't work. And these "scientists" are running these programs to predict the temperature of the planet for many decades in the future, when they can't even predict what will happen tomorrow. Since the programs are based on the hypothesis of CO2 caused global warming it's fairly obvious that they will predict more warming, as CO2 will continue to rise. But that hypothesis has already been proved wrong. So what they're doing is pointless. Nope. The survey assumed that any scientist that disagreed with any aspect of climate change was not onboard and that was used to dismiss the 95% claim. The models don't work perfectly, does not mean its not getting warmer, it just means the speed could be faster of slower. They can predict what it will be tomorrow. You are confusing global energy with local weather. The temperature has risen faster than any time in history barring catastrophic events a such as the end of ice ages or asteroid strikes. That fact is not in dispute. "The survey results dispel the notion that 97 percent of relevant scientists believe humans are causing catastrophic climate change. Instead, Heartland’s poll found the percentage of earth scientists who believe anthropogenic climate change will “significantly harm” people’s standard of living in our lifetimes is far lower than previously reported: 59 percent." A question for you. What do you mean by 'disagreed with any aspect of climate change'? As regards temps rising faster now than ever before is arrant nonsense as temperatures cannot be measured to the same degree of accuracy in historic times. It can be inferred that temperatures on average rose faster now than over a period of hundreds of years in the past. Even the ice core proxies have levels of uncertainty that become more problematic with ages getting past hundreds of years. What cannot be stated as fact is that now temperatures are rising faster now than ever before as there is no period of equivalent length that can be accurately assessed. Once again I am not disputing that warming is occurring what I question is why it is happening, what the actual warming is, what the data actually says and the process that is demanded we undertake to counter it.
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Post by sandypine on Jun 27, 2023 19:53:19 GMT
Do we wait for proof of anything. There is a body of opinion that it is, the problem however is that that opinion demands action from everyone else. I do not believe it is specifically man made therefore I am not demanding anything from anyone else But you are not a climatologist. So just like any amateur your opinion is not sort by governments. Were you to tell me my mother in law's heart seemed fine to you, I would still believe her consultants. I'd still believe them over you even if they got some bits about it wrong. However that is not the scenario we are dealing with. To keep to your analogy if the Consultants said she has only six months to live and presented the data to you for verification by others then three years later she was still fighting fit and the data you gave to other consultants to review indicated she may still be alive in ten years time would you have questions as regards the first consultants? We are all Joe Public and the information is being presented to us to make us aware and to make us agree to the sacrifices demanded of us. If my emissions are important then everyone's emissions are important and Bill Gates (and many others) emitting several thousand times more than what I emit in my lifetime then perhaps a different type of 'sacrifice' should be considered.
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Post by zanygame on Jun 27, 2023 20:07:27 GMT
Nope. The survey assumed that any scientist that disagreed with any aspect of climate change was not onboard and that was used to dismiss the 95% claim. The models don't work perfectly, does not mean its not getting warmer, it just means the speed could be faster of slower. They can predict what it will be tomorrow. You are confusing global energy with local weather. The temperature has risen faster than any time in history barring catastrophic events a such as the end of ice ages or asteroid strikes. That fact is not in dispute. "The survey results dispel the notion that 97 percent of relevant scientists believe humans are causing catastrophic climate change. Instead, Heartland’s poll found the percentage of earth scientists who believe anthropogenic climate change will “significantly harm” people’s standard of living in our lifetimes is far lower than previously reported: 59 percent." A question for you. What do you mean by 'disagreed with any aspect of climate change'? As regards temps rising faster now than ever before is arrant nonsense as temperatures cannot be measured to the same degree of accuracy in historic times. It can be inferred that temperatures on average rose faster now than over a period of hundreds of years in the past. Even the ice core proxies have levels of uncertainty that become more problematic with ages getting past hundreds of years. What cannot be stated as fact is that now temperatures are rising faster now than ever before as there is no period of equivalent length that can be accurately assessed. Once again I am not disputing that warming is occurring what I question is why it is happening, what the actual warming is, what the data actually says and the process that is demanded we undertake to counter it. As I said above. We don't need to measure temperatures from a million years go even though we can. We just need to know they are warming faster than anything in the last 500 years. And that its not happening naturally.
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Post by sandypine on Jun 27, 2023 20:09:45 GMT
My understanding is the models can't accurately predict ocean surface temperatures since they vary from ocean to ocean. Another question worth asking is who agrees the accuracy of the models, is it climate scientists and why have some models been abandoned? Is this what you are referring to. Sea-surface temperature measurements are an essential component in the production of the average global temperature figures. Without data from the oceans we wouldn’t see 70 per cent of the world’s surface and we would get an unrepresentative picture of global change. But piecing together an accurate picture across the vast expanse of the world’s oceans and decades of time and technical changes is extremely challenging. When putting together global temperatures, there are two main sea-surface temperature data sets: one, produced by the Met Office Hadley Centre, known as HadSST3; and another, produced by NOAA, known as ERSSTv4. A new scientific paper in the journal Science Advances has drawn attention to small differences between these data sets, and between two of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s data sets (ERSSTv4, and its earlier version ERSSTv3). The new study suggests there have been some small improvements to how the global rate of warming is represented in NOAA’s latest data set, which warms slightly faster in recent years. The difference between NOAA’s latest data set and the Met Office data set is estimated to be around 0.03 °C per decade over the period 1997-2015 in the global average. Am I missing something? The difference between the two data sets is 'estimated' to be 0.03 per decade. That means there must be a level of uncertainty there and since global warming is supposed to be 0.08 per decade on average then what is that uncertainty? This all ties in to the uncertainties within the datasets themselves and all the uncertainties that lie with all the readings and the correction factors applied and the modern use of probes with instantaneous readings and the past use of copper buckets and before that any old bucket.
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Post by sandypine on Jun 27, 2023 20:15:11 GMT
"The survey results dispel the notion that 97 percent of relevant scientists believe humans are causing catastrophic climate change. Instead, Heartland’s poll found the percentage of earth scientists who believe anthropogenic climate change will “significantly harm” people’s standard of living in our lifetimes is far lower than previously reported: 59 percent." A question for you. What do you mean by 'disagreed with any aspect of climate change'? As regards temps rising faster now than ever before is arrant nonsense as temperatures cannot be measured to the same degree of accuracy in historic times. It can be inferred that temperatures on average rose faster now than over a period of hundreds of years in the past. Even the ice core proxies have levels of uncertainty that become more problematic with ages getting past hundreds of years. What cannot be stated as fact is that now temperatures are rising faster now than ever before as there is no period of equivalent length that can be accurately assessed. Once again I am not disputing that warming is occurring what I question is why it is happening, what the actual warming is, what the data actually says and the process that is demanded we undertake to counter it. As I said above. We don't need to measure temperatures from a million years go even though we can. We just need to know they are warming faster than anything in the last 500 years. And that its not happening naturally. You said any time in history. Now you are down to 500 years and it is not natural. You cannot measure planetary temperatures from a million years ago with any level of accuracy to make the claims you made. The proxies have too many uncertainties and unknown factors.
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Post by zanygame on Jun 27, 2023 20:22:03 GMT
Is this what you are referring to. Sea-surface temperature measurements are an essential component in the production of the average global temperature figures. Without data from the oceans we wouldn’t see 70 per cent of the world’s surface and we would get an unrepresentative picture of global change. But piecing together an accurate picture across the vast expanse of the world’s oceans and decades of time and technical changes is extremely challenging. When putting together global temperatures, there are two main sea-surface temperature data sets: one, produced by the Met Office Hadley Centre, known as HadSST3; and another, produced by NOAA, known as ERSSTv4. A new scientific paper in the journal Science Advances has drawn attention to small differences between these data sets, and between two of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s data sets (ERSSTv4, and its earlier version ERSSTv3). The new study suggests there have been some small improvements to how the global rate of warming is represented in NOAA’s latest data set, which warms slightly faster in recent years. The difference between NOAA’s latest data set and the Met Office data set is estimated to be around 0.03 °C per decade over the period 1997-2015 in the global average. Am I missing something? The difference between the two data sets is 'estimated' to be 0.03 per decade. That means there must be a level of uncertainty there and since global warming is supposed to be 0.08 per decade on average then what is that uncertainty? This all ties in to the uncertainties within the datasets themselves and all the uncertainties that lie with all the readings and the correction factors applied and the modern use of probes with instantaneous readings and the past use of copper buckets and before that any old bucket. It tells you why, the new equipment is more accurate, that the current readings are more accurate as you would expect and still the temperatures are rising.
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Post by sandypine on Jun 27, 2023 20:49:41 GMT
Am I missing something? The difference between the two data sets is 'estimated' to be 0.03 per decade. That means there must be a level of uncertainty there and since global warming is supposed to be 0.08 per decade on average then what is that uncertainty? This all ties in to the uncertainties within the datasets themselves and all the uncertainties that lie with all the readings and the correction factors applied and the modern use of probes with instantaneous readings and the past use of copper buckets and before that any old bucket. It tells you why, the new equipment is more accurate, that the current readings are more accurate as you would expect and still the temperatures are rising. The new equipment is more accurate yet it is being used to compare with temperatures using a rubber or metal bucket dropped overboard and a spirit or mercury thermometer immersed in said bucket. What is clear is that there is a process of 'adjustments' undertaken before the figures are included. There is also a history of trying to account for, and possibly 'correct' away, the 1940 temperature blip. The tangled web is ever present.
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Post by zanygame on Jun 27, 2023 21:05:36 GMT
It tells you why, the new equipment is more accurate, that the current readings are more accurate as you would expect and still the temperatures are rising. The new equipment is more accurate yet it is being used to compare with temperatures using a rubber or metal bucket dropped overboard and a spirit or mercury thermometer immersed in said bucket. What is clear is that there is a process of 'adjustments' undertaken before the figures are included. There is also a history of trying to account for, and possibly 'correct' away, the 1940 temperature blip. The tangled web is ever present. That tangled web of odd temperature anomalies that enable the deniers to muddy the water, yes I'm aware of that. But scientists across the globe are more interested in the increases in temperature we see year on year and the known cause.
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