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Post by bancroft on Jan 21, 2023 16:57:32 GMT
To understand if polls are right you need to understand when and how they were made.
Polls are just a prediction based on the best measuring device that can be constructed at that time, never perfect as they always miss busy people like workers.
We have seen several fail, Brexit was one and so was Tories remaining in power so long.
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Post by morayloon on Jan 21, 2023 16:58:18 GMT
It is just a matter of time. All of the shenanigans emanating from Westminster will surely increase Indy support. and the end of that sentence is "but then again...well....perhaps not!" We'll see! |
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Post by morayloon on Jan 21, 2023 17:30:28 GMT
The National and its' fixed "polls" have no credibility with normal people, it is the sort of thing that Jaydee reads and bases his observations on. You might be better reading this truenorth.scot/what-does-scotland-think-our-first-true-north-poll-2023/ rather than the Nationalist rubbish. Sir John Curtis advises us of the following “Following on from polling conducted shortly before Christmas that pointed in the same direction, today’s poll suggests that the spike in support for independence registered after the Supreme Court judgement on indyref2 has proven to be temporary. At 46%, support for Yes in today’s poll is little different from the 47% figure Survation obtained when they previously addressed the issue last August. Once again you are talking rubbish. The Poll was only commissioned by the National. The Polling company does the actual legwork. As I have said before these Polls are weighted to make it as close to the views of Scottish society as possible. Oh, and it not only this poll that has shown YES in front. Eight of the last polls have had Yes in front. These were commissioned by the likes of the Times (YouGov), the Sunday Times (Panelbase), STV (Ipsos), Scotsman (Savanta) - the latter showed NO in front to end the run of 7 in a row YES leads. Are these Unionist media sources biased, of course not. Questions asked are usually the same especially on Independence (the question asked in 2014 is put to respondents. And, the National Poll has us back on track. The fieldwork was carried out from 11th - 18th January so it is more up - to -date than the Survation poll which was from 10th-12th. Another point, the National survey did not ask any 16-18 year old. If they had, the result might have been more conclusive. A later tweet "Polling expert John Curtice said a reported drop-off in Yes support which followed the Supreme Court ruling may not be the case, after the results showed Yes on 54%" |
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Post by Ripley on Jan 21, 2023 17:41:40 GMT
Why would they leave out the 16-18s? How can a poll be considered scientific if it doesn't reach a representative sampling of the voters?
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Post by om15 on Jan 21, 2023 17:58:18 GMT
I remember all those rigged polls telling us that there was a huge majority for YES just before the Scots overwhelmingly voted NO in 2014. Same 7 in the pub that your latest poll was based on.
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Post by Pacifico on Jan 21, 2023 18:07:28 GMT
Well the "fairer, greener, welcoming country" is a bit of a joke considering that, apart from Northern Ireland, Scotland is one of the most sectarian communities in the nation.
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Post by happyjack on Jan 21, 2023 18:58:23 GMT
Scottish independence poll gives Yes a HUGE lead amid gender bill row 
Scottish independence poll gives Yes a HUGE lead amid gender bill row
SUPPORT for Scottish independence is at its second-highest level EVER reached, according to an exclusive new polling series commissioned for The National.
Goodness, if 54% / 46% is a HUGE margin then the 55.3% / 44.7% Indyref margin must have been OVERWHELMING. |
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Post by happyjack on Jan 21, 2023 21:11:39 GMT
...and, more to the point, why does it matter? Indyref2 is not going to happen any time soon (if ever) so why waste time poring over these polls looking for crumbs of comfort? It is just a matter of time. All of the shenanigans emanating from Westminster will surely increase Indy support. We will see, once details emerge about UK Government’s rationale for blocking the GRA, whether they have behaved reasonably or engaged in shenanigans. In the meantime, the only certain shenanigans on this one have come from SNP leadership with their fake response to UK government’s (presumably) legitimate action and their subsequent unjustified grievance stirring on this matter. It’s almost as if they believe the false narrative they have been feeding the Scottish people all these years. I am sure that you will disagree with that view but let’s put it on the back burner for a minute. You might be right that this will lead to an increase in Indy support, but I am not so sure. I think that this, on top of the recent Supreme Court judgement on another Indyref, will start to open many of our fellow Scots eyes to the big gap between Scotland’s actual status as a sub-national UK territory, and its mythological status as punted by the Indy movement, and that this will result in the air being taken out of the Indy bubble. However, let’s assume that you are right and Indy support increases a bit. Then what? How will that translate into independence, or even into another Indyref? We now know for sure that ((1) the SNP rhetoric on Scotland’s status and Scotland’s remedies, upon which much of the national grievance has been built, is false, (2 Scotland has no right to an Indyref (any more than any other part of the UK , no matter how you may split it up, appears to be - or, for that matter, no more right to independence than pretty much any other territory of any other country has across the globe), (3) only Westminster can open the box to another Indy referendum, and (4) neither the current UK government nor the prospective Labour government will agree to another Indyref, so how, and under what route, would an Indy Scotland come to be, as you seem to believe it will? |
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Post by research0it on Jan 21, 2023 21:44:08 GMT
It is just a matter of time. All of the shenanigans emanating from Westminster will surely increase Indy support. We will see, once details emerge about UK Government’s rationale for blocking the GRA, whether they have behaved reasonably or engaged in shenanigans. In the meantime, the only certain shenanigans on this one have come from SNP leadership with their fake response to UK government’s (presumably) legitimate action and their subsequent unjustified grievance stirring on this matter. It’s almost as if they believe the false narrative they have been feeding the Scottish people all these years. I am sure that you will disagree with that view but let’s put it on the back burner for a minute. You might be right that this will lead to an increase in Indy support, but I am not so sure. I think that this, on top of the recent Supreme Court judgement on another Indyref, will start to open many of our fellow Scots eyes to the big gap between Scotland’s actual status as a sub-national UK territory, and its mythological status as punted by the Indy movement, and that this will result in the air being taken out of the Indy bubble. However, let’s assume that you are right and Indy support increases a bit. Then what? How will that translate into independence, or even into another Indyref? We now know for sure that ((1) the SNP rhetoric on Scotland’s status and Scotland’s remedies, upon which much of the national grievance has been built, is false, (2 Scotland has no right to an Indyref (any more than any other part of the UK , no matter how you may split it up, appears to be - or, for that matter, no more right to independence than pretty much any other territory of any other country has across the globe), (3) only Westminster can open the box to another Indy referendum, and (4) neither the current UK government nor the prospective Labour government will agree to another Indyref, so how, and under what route, would an Indy Scotland come to be, as you seem to believe it will? Hi happyjack Every word of what you're writing is correct. My question to the independence supporters is what are they going to do about it? My question to you is not what IS the situation, but what it SHOULD be? That is, if the settled will of the people of scotland should be to leave the UK, should that still be denied? |
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Post by morayloon on Jan 22, 2023 1:08:07 GMT
I remember all those rigged polls telling us that there was a huge majority for YES just before the Scots overwhelmingly voted NO in 2014. Same 7 in the pub that your latest poll was based on. Bollocks yet again!!! Don't you ever get bored with having to be corrected all the time. There were TWO polls showing a YES lead - one from YouGov which scared the shit out of the BT brigade, and one by ICM which had a smaller than normal sample. They were commissioned by the Sunday Times & the Telegraph respectively. |
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Post by morayloon on Jan 22, 2023 1:30:22 GMT
Why would they leave out the 16-18s? How can a poll be considered scientific if it doesn't reach a representative sampling of the voters? You'd think that a Poll on Independence, commissioned by the National, would have covered all age groups. Apart from that, there is a curious result re Don't Knows. In this Poll it was 20% (although 17% of that said they wouldn't vote). That is way above the level noted by other pollsters. The company also published a poll on 8th December which showed 19% Don't Knows.. The 17%, would not vote figure, sort of ties in with the turnout in September 2014 of 84.5% i.e. did not vote = 15.5% whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-vote-in-the-in-a-scottish-independence-referendum-if-held-now-ask/?notes#latest |
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Post by morayloon on Jan 22, 2023 2:49:22 GMT
It is just a matter of time. All of the shenanigans emanating from Westminster will surely increase Indy support. We will see, once details emerge about UK Government’s rationale for blocking the GRA, whether they have behaved reasonably or engaged in shenanigans. In the meantime, the only certain shenanigans on this one have come from SNP leadership with their fake response to UK government’s (presumably) legitimate action and their subsequent unjustified grievance stirring on this matter. It’s almost as if they believe the false narrative they have been feeding the Scottish people all these years. I am sure that you will disagree with that view but let’s put it on the back burner for a minute. You might be right that this will lead to an increase in Indy support, but I am not so sure. I think that this, on top of the recent Supreme Court judgement on another Indyref, will start to open many of our fellow Scots eyes to the big gap between Scotland’s actual status as a sub-national UK territory, and its mythological status as punted by the Indy movement, and that this will result in the air being taken out of the Indy bubble. However, let’s assume that you are right and Indy support increases a bit. Then what? How will that translate into independence, or even into another Indyref? We now know for sure that ((1) the SNP rhetoric on Scotland’s status and Scotland’s remedies, upon which much of the national grievance has been built, is false, (2 Scotland has no right to an Indyref (any more than any other part of the UK , no matter how you may split it up, appears to be - or, for that matter, no more right to independence than pretty much any other territory of any other country has across the globe), (3) only Westminster can open the box to another Indy referendum, and (4) neither the current UK government nor the prospective Labour government will agree to another Indyref, so how, and under what route, would an Indy Scotland come to be, as you seem to believe it will? Read all about it www.gov.uk/government/publications/statement-of-reasons-related-to-the-use-of-section-35-of-the-scotland-act-1998/html-version As to the actions taken, the courts will decide there legitimacy. I think you underestimate the wisdom of Scottish people. They know that we regained a Parliament in 1999. They know that the Tories will come nowhere in an election in Scotland. Why would they vote to return to direct rule when all that means is, mostly, Tory Governments - they, through the Scottish office, will be in charge of the NHS, education, justice etc etc That's a situation we voted to get away from. As for the Red Tories - least said. We know what our status is - a colony. The situation is fast becoming farcical as the UK claws back powers and steps into veto Scottish only legislation. Scotland is a Nation and a country - none of your attempted revisionism will alter that fact. I think as the UK Government becomes ever more brazen in its attacks on Devolution, the Scots will turn to Independence in droves. Time will tell 1. What 'national grievance' id that? I don't see any grievances, I see a party standing up for. and for the rights of, Scots. 2. Garbage. We were forced into a Union which caused rioting throughout Scotland. Other parts of the UK weren't signatories. International Treaties can be annulled or, is it just, in your eyes, that the Treaty leading to the formation of the Union can't? 3. & 4. So, you agree with disregarding Scottish Democracy? We have all seen how the English Parliament treats Scottish MPs - abysmally. It will come about and as I am a democrat I believe it will be gained through democratic means. Continuing to ignore the fact that the SNP have been successful in elections since 2011 is not democratic. |
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Post by happyjack on Jan 22, 2023 11:42:29 GMT
We will see, once details emerge about UK Government’s rationale for blocking the GRA, whether they have behaved reasonably or engaged in shenanigans. In the meantime, the only certain shenanigans on this one have come from SNP leadership with their fake response to UK government’s (presumably) legitimate action and their subsequent unjustified grievance stirring on this matter. It’s almost as if they believe the false narrative they have been feeding the Scottish people all these years. I am sure that you will disagree with that view but let’s put it on the back burner for a minute. You might be right that this will lead to an increase in Indy support, but I am not so sure. I think that this, on top of the recent Supreme Court judgement on another Indyref, will start to open many of our fellow Scots eyes to the big gap between Scotland’s actual status as a sub-national UK territory, and its mythological status as punted by the Indy movement, and that this will result in the air being taken out of the Indy bubble. However, let’s assume that you are right and Indy support increases a bit. Then what? How will that translate into independence, or even into another Indyref? We now know for sure that ((1) the SNP rhetoric on Scotland’s status and Scotland’s remedies, upon which much of the national grievance has been built, is false, (2 Scotland has no right to an Indyref (any more than any other part of the UK , no matter how you may split it up, appears to be - or, for that matter, no more right to independence than pretty much any other territory of any other country has across the globe), (3) only Westminster can open the box to another Indy referendum, and (4) neither the current UK government nor the prospective Labour government will agree to another Indyref, so how, and under what route, would an Indy Scotland come to be, as you seem to believe it will? Read all about it www.gov.uk/government/publications/statement-of-reasons-related-to-the-use-of-section-35-of-the-scotland-act-1998/html-version As to the actions taken, the courts will decide there legitimacy. I think you underestimate the wisdom of Scottish people. They know that we regained a Parliament in 1999. They know that the Tories will come nowhere in an election in Scotland. Why would they vote to return to direct rule when all that means is, mostly, Tory Governments - they, through the Scottish office, will be in charge of the NHS, education, justice etc etc That's a situation we voted to get away from. As for the Red Tories - least said. We know what our status is - a colony. The situation is fast becoming farcical as the UK claws back powers and steps into veto Scottish only legislation. Scotland is a Nation and a country - none of your attempted revisionism will alter that fact. I think as the UK Government becomes ever more brazen in its attacks on Devolution, the Scots will turn to Independence in droves. Time will tell 1. What 'national grievance' id that? I don't see any grievances, I see a party standing up for. and for the rights of, Scots. 2. Garbage. We were forced into a Union which caused rioting throughout Scotland. Other parts of the UK weren't signatories. International Treaties can be annulled or, is it just, in your eyes, that the Treaty leading to the formation of the Union can't? 3. & 4. So, you agree with disregarding Scottish Democracy? We have all seen how the English Parliament treats Scottish MPs - abysmally. It will come about and as I am a democrat I believe it will be gained through democratic means. Continuing to ignore the fact that the SNP have been successful in elections since 2011 is not democratic. Most of what you raise I have covered on here already, either directly with you or in dialogue with others which you have doubtless read, so I won’t go over it all again. Thanks for posting the UK Govt. publication. It looks to me, from that, that the Scottish Secretary has not acted vexatiously here but has raised some reasonable and genuine issues. Whether the Supreme Court, if and when it is asked for a judgement, decides in his favour is another thing, of course, but if it doesn’t then that wouldn’t automatically render Jack’s reasoning or actions vexatious. I don’t know why the Scottish people would vote to return to the pre-devolution arrangement. I, for one, definitely don’t want that. Indeed, I believe that the UK constitutional arrangements and political protocols need a massive shake up, including giving more power to all of the UK regions, perhaps along the lines of a federal arrangement. I have heard this “Scottish democracy” term being bandied about a lot recently but have never seen it defined, so am not sure if I agree with disregarding it or not. Have you got a decent definition of the term and, if so, would you mind posting it so that we can examine it and see if we can reach a common understanding of what it means when we discuss it. Nobody could doubt you passion for independence but you seem to be letting this cloud you to the hard realities here. All that you say above is based upon emotion and myth, but where is the substance? If Scotland had any remedy other than appealing to UK Government for a referendum or whatever, don’t you think that SNP and the Indy movement generally would have played that card by now? Sturgeon et al are becoming increasingly desperate to be seen to be doing something to pacify their critics in the Indy movement, hence last year’s Supreme Court case and this current debacle. The danger is that this is all just going to further expose the reality, which is that despite the rhetoric of recent times, Scotland does not have the status and entitlements that the whole Indy grievance case is built upon, and it has no constitutional remedy to the situation either. |
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Post by research0it on Jan 22, 2023 15:01:03 GMT
Read all about it www.gov.uk/government/publications/statement-of-reasons-related-to-the-use-of-section-35-of-the-scotland-act-1998/html-version As to the actions taken, the courts will decide there legitimacy. I think you underestimate the wisdom of Scottish people. They know that we regained a Parliament in 1999. They know that the Tories will come nowhere in an election in Scotland. Why would they vote to return to direct rule when all that means is, mostly, Tory Governments - they, through the Scottish office, will be in charge of the NHS, education, justice etc etc That's a situation we voted to get away from. As for the Red Tories - least said. We know what our status is - a colony. The situation is fast becoming farcical as the UK claws back powers and steps into veto Scottish only legislation. Scotland is a Nation and a country - none of your attempted revisionism will alter that fact. I think as the UK Government becomes ever more brazen in its attacks on Devolution, the Scots will turn to Independence in droves. Time will tell 1. What 'national grievance' id that? I don't see any grievances, I see a party standing up for. and for the rights of, Scots. 2. Garbage. We were forced into a Union which caused rioting throughout Scotland. Other parts of the UK weren't signatories. International Treaties can be annulled or, is it just, in your eyes, that the Treaty leading to the formation of the Union can't? 3. & 4. So, you agree with disregarding Scottish Democracy? We have all seen how the English Parliament treats Scottish MPs - abysmally. It will come about and as I am a democrat I believe it will be gained through democratic means. Continuing to ignore the fact that the SNP have been successful in elections since 2011 is not democratic. Most of what you raise I have covered on here already, either directly with you or in dialogue with others which you have doubtless read, so I won’t go over it all again. Thanks for posting the UK Govt. publication. It looks to me, from that, that the Scottish Secretary has not acted vexatiously here but has raised some reasonable and genuine issues. Whether the Supreme Court, if and when it is asked for a judgement, decides in his favour is another thing, of course, but if it doesn’t then that wouldn’t automatically render Jack’s reasoning or actions vexatious. I don’t know why the Scottish people would vote to return to the pre-devolution arrangement. I, for one, definitely don’t want that. Indeed, I believe that the UK constitutional arrangements and political protocols need a massive shake up, including giving more power to all of the UK regions, perhaps along the lines of a federal arrangement. I have heard this “Scottish democracy” term being bandied about a lot recently but have never seen it defined, so am not sure if I agree with disregarding it or not. Have you got a decent definition of the term and, if so, would you mind posting it so that we can examine it and see if we can reach a common understanding of what it means when we discuss it. Nobody could doubt you passion for independence but you seem to be letting this cloud you to the hard realities here. All that you say above is based upon emotion and myth, but where is the substance? If Scotland had any remedy other than appealing to UK Government for a referendum or whatever, don’t you think that SNP and the Indy movement generally would have played that card by now? Sturgeon et al are becoming increasingly desperate to be seen to be doing something to pacify their critics in the Indy movement, hence last year’s Supreme Court case and this current debacle. The danger is that this is all just going to further expose the reality, which is that despite the rhetoric of recent times, Scotland does not have the status and entitlements that the whole Indy grievance case is built upon, and it has no constitutional remedy to the situation either. Hi happyjack There's no doubt where the power lies in this respect. Westminster In your view is that right? I don't mean whether it's correct, I mean that the constitutional power should lie with the people living in scotland, and not Westminster. Do you agree? I don't think you'd be taking a risk because right now, I suspect if that power was given, there'd be a small majority for the union |
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Post by jaydee on Jan 23, 2023 10:43:05 GMT
I remember all those rigged polls telling us that there was a huge majority for YES just before the Scots overwhelmingly voted NO in 2014. Same 7 in the pub that your latest poll was based on. What rigged pool was that. As I recall it was going to be landslide till just before the referendum. Then the lying wankers promised the earth. Which seemed to imply under Sewall FFA. Instead the Scots got EVEL. Making them second hand citizen. Why do you rant garbage post after post. Most of the time you do not even need to research. It is explained to you in big grown up writing and in a few days time you keep ranting the same garbage. So what riggedc polls is your brain on about www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/16/cameron-miliband-clegg-pledge-daily-record |
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