Post by morayloon on Jun 30, 2024 3:38:26 GMT
It is not looking good for the SNP.
The latest Survation MRP poll had them on 12 seats. www.survation.com/survation-mrp-update-labour-set-to-become-the-largest-party-in-scotland/
Out today, a Norstat poll puts Labour on 35% and SNP on 31%. Those figures seemingly suggest that the Nationalists will win only 18 seats. scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2024/06/independence-bombshell-hits-westminster.html
That same Norstat poll has Independence support sitting at 50%
YouGov on 27/6 had Labour on 35% and SNP on 29% yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49880-general-election-2024-labour-leads-snp-in-scotland-by-six-points
Savanta on 27/6 had Labour and SNP level on 34% savanta.com/knowledge-centre/press-and-polls/scottish-political-tracker-the-scotsman-27-june-2024/
26/6 Find Out Now MRP suggests SNP will win 24 seats www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_vipoll_20240626.html
26/6 Me Thinks MRP puts SNP on course for a majority of seats scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2024/06/methinks-wethink-mrp-has-just-shown-snp.html
So, the polls are not agreeing on %ages. But, what, with the exception of Me Thinks, they do agree on is that Labour is going to come out on top.
Labour has not been successful in opening up a big gap over the SNP, but the one that has opened is enough to ensure the Red Tories will succeed in large swathes of central Scotland
(where the vast majority of constituencies are) which was once Labour heartland.
One more point of agreement - The Tories are having a disastrous time of it.
In my own constituency (Moray West, Nairn & Strathspey), despite having left the SNP three years ago, I will be backing the party on Thursday (well, really Friday past when I sent off my postal vote). Despite my misgivings about the lack of work, or urgency, on the constitutional question, the SNP remains the best option for any Yes supporter.
Of the other Indy parties, I have had my doubts about the Greens and their sincerity on supporting Independence. Lorna Slater's admission that Independence would not be a red-line in any post-election negotiations with Labour was very telling
As for Alba, I don't believe they should be putting up candidates at all - exceptions being the ex MPs Kenny MacAskill and Neale Hanvey.
The latest Survation MRP poll had them on 12 seats. www.survation.com/survation-mrp-update-labour-set-to-become-the-largest-party-in-scotland/
Out today, a Norstat poll puts Labour on 35% and SNP on 31%. Those figures seemingly suggest that the Nationalists will win only 18 seats. scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2024/06/independence-bombshell-hits-westminster.html
That same Norstat poll has Independence support sitting at 50%
YouGov on 27/6 had Labour on 35% and SNP on 29% yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49880-general-election-2024-labour-leads-snp-in-scotland-by-six-points
Savanta on 27/6 had Labour and SNP level on 34% savanta.com/knowledge-centre/press-and-polls/scottish-political-tracker-the-scotsman-27-june-2024/
26/6 Find Out Now MRP suggests SNP will win 24 seats www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_vipoll_20240626.html
26/6 Me Thinks MRP puts SNP on course for a majority of seats scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2024/06/methinks-wethink-mrp-has-just-shown-snp.html
So, the polls are not agreeing on %ages. But, what, with the exception of Me Thinks, they do agree on is that Labour is going to come out on top.
Labour has not been successful in opening up a big gap over the SNP, but the one that has opened is enough to ensure the Red Tories will succeed in large swathes of central Scotland
(where the vast majority of constituencies are) which was once Labour heartland.
One more point of agreement - The Tories are having a disastrous time of it.
In my own constituency (Moray West, Nairn & Strathspey), despite having left the SNP three years ago, I will be backing the party on Thursday (well, really Friday past when I sent off my postal vote). Despite my misgivings about the lack of work, or urgency, on the constitutional question, the SNP remains the best option for any Yes supporter.
Of the other Indy parties, I have had my doubts about the Greens and their sincerity on supporting Independence. Lorna Slater's admission that Independence would not be a red-line in any post-election negotiations with Labour was very telling
As for Alba, I don't believe they should be putting up candidates at all - exceptions being the ex MPs Kenny MacAskill and Neale Hanvey.
