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Post by borchester on Jun 21, 2024 9:42:50 GMT
Of Reform at any rate. The mean of the last two polls has the Tories on 18.5% and Reform miles behind on 18%
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Post by johnofgwent on Jun 21, 2024 13:30:09 GMT
:-)
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Post by andrewbrown on Jun 21, 2024 13:37:34 GMT
🤔😂
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Post by patman post on Jun 21, 2024 13:49:53 GMT
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ginnyg2
Full Member
Don't blame me - I voted for someone else.
Posts: 414
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Post by ginnyg2 on Jun 21, 2024 14:04:37 GMT
Storm in a teacup. 0.5%!
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Post by andrewbrown on Jun 21, 2024 14:24:37 GMT
You may say that, but actually there's about 120 seats which are still marginal, so both that 1/2 percent, and where that 1/2 percent come from does matter. FWIW, I hope his polling numbers increase over the next couple of weeks, as the last thing that anyone wants is a parliament with 500 MPs from one party... |
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Post by Baron von Lotsov on Jun 21, 2024 14:45:44 GMT
You may say that, but actually there's about 120 seats which are still marginal, so both that 1/2 percent, and where that 1/2 percent come from does matter. FWIW, I hope his polling numbers increase over the next couple of weeks, as the last thing that anyone wants is a parliament with 500 MPs from one party... None of this commotion would happen if they stayed at 12%. Farage had a bit of a honeymoon and pushed it 6 points higher. 6 points is not a lot against the whole. Now it is a case of a vote for Reform is not necessarily one for Starmer, it has a sticky effect. They should stay floating higher than 12% and stand a fair chance of a clear lead, which in itself will give more publicity, as per no longer an 'other party' when in second place. Debates would look like they were missing something etc. |
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Post by andrewbrown on Jun 21, 2024 15:20:27 GMT
Actually, because of our FPTP system, it doesn't actually work like that. There was a really interesting tweet from Robert Peston this morning (or last night, I read it this morning) where you could get a scenario where Labour had a lower vote share than Corbyn but end up with a huge majority. Reform could get more votes than the Tories but still end up with only a handful, which is my guess as to what will happen.
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Post by dodgydave on Jun 21, 2024 23:28:25 GMT
Actually, because of our FPTP system, it doesn't actually work like that. There was a really interesting tweet from Robert Peston this morning (or last night, I read it this morning) where you could get a scenario where Labour had a lower vote share than Corbyn but end up with a huge majority. Reform could get more votes than the Tories but still end up with only a handful, which is my guess as to what will happen. It's the likes of Peston that will lead to a really low turnout. The lack of respect they give politicians, and the constant sneering of anybody that diagrees with the MMS Liberal agenda, has turned people off politics. Labour are going to win a massive majority because Tory voters will stay at home. Sadly all the people that have been waited for a Labour win for the last decade are going to be very disappointed. Starmer has backed himself into an economic corner, instead of pushing a positive vision, so nothing much is going to change. |
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Post by andrewbrown on Jun 22, 2024 0:06:44 GMT
I agree with your second and third paragraphs.
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Post by dodgydave on Jun 22, 2024 1:58:28 GMT
I agree with your second and third paragraphs. I'm a trucker so I listen to news / politics progammes and phone in shows all day. The contempt the presenters have for politicians just breeds more toxicity. As for the callers, they can say they "hate" political parties / politicians and spew out pure venom, and they can repeat any old lie and nobody pulls them up. This leads people to believe that the country is broken, and politicians are corrupt, and they lose all faith in the system. I never hear anybody calling for sensible, respectful debate, or encouraging people to take part in the democratic process. All I hear is a line of people wanting to stick the boot in. The other problem is trying to force people to accept things that are obviously not true. The most obvious one being you can change sex, or even worse not have one lol. |
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Post by andrewbrown on Jun 22, 2024 3:25:54 GMT
The contempt the presenters have for politicians just breeds more toxicity. As for the callers, they can say they "hate" political parties / politicians and spew out pure venom, and they can repeat any old lie and nobody pulls them up. This leads people to believe that the country is broken, and politicians are corrupt, and they lose all faith in the system. I never hear anybody calling for sensible, respectful debate, or encouraging people to take part in the democratic process. All I hear is a line of people wanting to stick the boot in. I find that interesting, as this forum here should consist of those with an interest in politics, but yet the majority seem to believe that. Personally I believe that the majority of our parliamentarians are hard working honest people, some with more abilities than others, but the behaviour and inabilities of some has tainted all. |
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Post by The Squeezed Middle on Jun 22, 2024 4:54:25 GMT
Actually, because of our FPTP system, it doesn't actually work like that. There was a really interesting tweet from Robert Peston this morning (or last night, I read it this morning) where you could get a scenario where Labour had a lower vote share than Corbyn but end up with a huge majority. Reform could get more votes than the Tories but still end up with only a handful, which is my guess as to what will happen. I totally agree.
A damning indictment of our so-called democracy.
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Post by johnofgwent on Jun 22, 2024 6:56:02 GMT
You may say that, but actually there's about 120 seats which are still marginal, so both that 1/2 percent, and where that 1/2 percent come from does matter. FWIW, I hope his polling numbers increase over the next couple of weeks, as the last thing that anyone wants is a parliament with 500 MPs from one party... No, I think that's exactly what I DO want. My own interactions with our quite uncivil and utterly non servile civil service has shown me beyond any doubt it needs to be taken out and hung, and the current Tory jerks are most definitely not the people to do it. What we need is the backlash that only a few years of unbridled Starmerism can create, and it needs to be a real right wing party that offers itself as his executioner. Leaving more than fifty Tory MPs collecting £85000 in a month's time means the CINO's that have infested the house of commons for the past twenty years or so will breed again. Extermination and dictatorship as Wales has experienced is now the only way. |
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Post by johnofgwent on Jun 22, 2024 7:09:18 GMT
I agree with your second and third paragraphs. I'm a trucker so I listen to news / politics progammes and phone in shows all day. The contempt the presenters have for politicians just breeds more toxicity. As for the callers, they can say they "hate" political parties / politicians and spew out pure venom, and they can repeat any old lie and nobody pulls them up. This leads people to believe that the country is broken, and politicians are corrupt, and they lose all faith in the system. I never hear anybody calling for sensible, respectful debate, or encouraging people to take part in the democratic process. All I hear is a line of people wanting to stick the boot in. The other problem is trying to force people to accept things that are obviously not true. The most obvious one being you can change sex, or even worse not have one lol. The last time we had a sensible, respectful debate was a Panorama Programme with Roy Jenkins and Anthony Wedgewood Benn debating, and I mean debating, the merits and demerits of the European Economic Community, a programme chaired by That Dimbleby bloke I believe and the whole thing introduced by Angela Ripon looking back to 1975.... Today's audiences would hate that as nobody shouted down the other and one sat quietly until the other made their points and gave way to the other to respond. I've mentioned it before it really is worth the time it takes to watch even if you only watch five minutes to see how it worked..... youtu.be/_zBFh6bpcMo?si=LAofNCwXtvjp4Mp8 |
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