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Post by sandypine on Nov 28, 2022 16:49:46 GMT
[quote source="/post/24056/thread" timestamp="1669652049" author=" sandypine "We have the problem with failing predictions, that have been failing for decades and the latest is that arctic sea ice will be gone very soon, in fact in 2015 it was mooted by some that the tipping point had been reached and nothing would bring the arctic sea ice back. Since then it has rebounded as has world wide sea ice cover and strangely the C02 has not dipped but continued to rise at a steady pace. So the fluctuations have little to do with C02. But less than 1/4 of the 1981-2010 mean Arctic Sea Ice amount so the long term trend is not good at all. nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ [/quote] ---------- The long term trend is down, that is not in dispute and never has been as it is clear the planet is in a warming trend. The questions are why, to what level and is it in direct corealtion to the C02 in the atmosphere or is it something else. The C02 trend is a steady line upwards yet the sea ice has bounced back a significant bit in the last 4 years and yet is meant to be responding to the C02 levels in the atmosphere. www.peoplesclimatemovement.ca/2016/11/05/more-co2-less-sea-ice/#:~:text=One%20ton%20of%20CO2%20added%20%3D%203%20square,square%20meters%20of%20Arctic%20summer%20sea%20ice%20disappear. This states clearly there is a direct relationship between CO2 and the area of summer sea ice.
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Post by Steve on Nov 28, 2022 20:43:35 GMT
Yes the warming is effectively indisputable, with no proven climate models then everything else is at most probable and sometimes just possible.
But why take the risk?
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Post by sandypine on Nov 28, 2022 21:49:16 GMT
Yes the warming is effectively indisputable, with no proven climate models then everything else is at most probable and sometimes just possible. But why take the risk? Can you quantify what constitutes the risk? CO2 is increasing but seems to be having less and less impact on global temperatures so its effect seems to be logarithmic and will soon disappear to insignificance. What you are suggesting is we commit self-immolation on the basis of a just possible and put into effect a gloabl plan that will see a selected few behave as they always have done and the rest of us giving up things so that they can carry on. If we are seriously expected not to take the risk then that not taking the risk has to be across the board, has to be brutal in its application and will result in gigantic global civil unrest. So I think that is a bigger risk.
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Post by Steve on Nov 29, 2022 0:29:11 GMT
Only seems that way to you. There's a proven correlation (which to be clear is NOT the same as proven causation) between rising CO2 levels and rising world temperature. You seem to wish to deny this based on a very short term variation and there are loads of reasons for short term variations (EG sun spot cycle)
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Post by Red Rackham on Nov 29, 2022 2:12:57 GMT
I cant help noticing that climate alarmists consistently refuse to acknowledge facts...
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Post by Montegriffo on Nov 29, 2022 8:18:44 GMT
I cant help noticing that climate alarmists consistently refuse to acknowledge facts... OK Red, I have watched this blogger's video and come to the conclusion that he is using the same tricks he accuses others of using. If you go back to start your examination of rising temperatures at the time of the industrial revolution it is clear that the trend has been for a steadily rising temperature of both the atmosphere and the oceans. Same with sea ice, ups and downs in annual sea ice has been a perfectly normal occurrence year on year due to a variety of factors but the overall trend if you go back further is for a steady decline. I'll admit that I only got halfway through but that was enough to convince me of the old adage - If you torture statistics enough you can get them to say anything you want them to. Now I'm prepared to admit that both ''sides'' employ these strategies and also the tactic of omission but it is nowhere near enough to convince me that climate change is a deliberate hoax. I didn't make it to the end but I'm guessing he didn't mention receding glaciers where the evidence is overwhelming. This blogger is clearly a statistician and not a climatologist and his dreary, slow, monotone presentation makes it hard to listen to but he does prove another old adage that there are lies, damn lies and statistics. Not impressed I'm afraid Red. Also, mathematicians are nerds. I think we should take his dinner money and pull his pants down.
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Post by thomas on Nov 29, 2022 8:45:19 GMT
I dont think referendums are a bad thing. How can more democracy and increasing participation in politics for the average joe be bad?
As for net zero , what exactly is the long game being played by western politicians here?
Are they genuine about saving the planet from mans ravages , or is ther something more sinister at play here.
How can governments be genuine about saving the health of this earth by on the one hand stopping sharon from using the 4 by 4 to drop the weans off at school , but on the other hand cheering on the elephant in the room , which is the growing overpopualtion of the human race on this planet?
There needs to be much more discussion , less "we know best " attitude from governments , referendums and more engagement with the populace .
Im open minded about climate change , support solar and wind power , but i too am becoming more and more disillusioned about net zero and government policy . Precisely Thomas, global population growth is indeed the elephant that governments dare not acknowledge. Every year births over deaths 83 million people are added to the global population and they all need water, food, energy, resources. China and India among many countries are not interested in ruining their economies with net-zero, yet politicians in this tiny country which accounts for just 0.8% of the global population seem to think forcing us into fuel poverty will somehow save the planet, it's absolute nonsense, it's too stupid for words. Other than making the UK poorer net-zero will make not a jot of difference on a global level. This may not always be the case, technology will obviously improve, but right now, wind and solar energy receive huge subsidies because they are very expensive and cannot be relied on to supply constant energy 24/7, and without constant reliable energy industry and the economy will collapse. Which will be great news for China. cheers red.
The world popualtion has taken tens of thousands of years to get to 1 billion , and in the space of an extremely short time has balloned to 8 billion. Scientists and experts pedict it will ceiling at 12 billion and dramatically fall .
Wonder what short term governments and their ever expanding ponzi schemes relying on ever increasing popualtions to pay the bills for previous generations will do then?
As for net zero , im far from convinced as i say above. spot on with your post.
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Post by steppenwolf on Nov 29, 2022 9:00:23 GMT
Only seems that way to you. There's a proven correlation (which to be clear is NOT the same as proven causation) between rising CO2 levels and rising world temperature. You seem to wish to deny this based on a very short term variation and there are loads of reasons for short term variations (EG sun spot cycle) There is NO proven correlation between rising CO2 levels and rising temperatures in the Earth's system. No attempt to create this has worked because the Earth is a "stabilised" system. If you try to warm it up by releasing CO2 the released CO2 also causes cooling because of plant photosynthesis etc. So it doesn't work. As you say correlation doesn't indicate causation. So it's worth bearing in mind that warming of the oceans causes the release of CO2 (which is dissolved in the ocean) and we know that ocean currents (like El Nino) have caused significant warming of the surface of the ocean - but we don't know what causes El Nino. So you would expect this to cause warming. But that's not warming caused by CO2. It is possible to differentiate CO2 from the oceans from CO2 that comes from human activities (by examining which carbon isotopes are present) but the graphs never seem to be corrected for this. I wonder why. The other relevant point is that the data that people like the IPCC use to show their nice little graphs (that demonstrate what they want to prove) is "manipulated". Of course manipulation is not necessarily wrong. These bodies get their data from a wide variety of sources - and over a very long timescale. For example the temperature of the sea used to be measured by dropping a bucket in the ocean and sticking a thermometer in it (in the early 20th century). Nowadays it's often measured by satellites or by buoys. All of these methods return different values of course - and when you're actually looking for very small changes in temperature (the average global temperature has changed by 1.1C since 1850) it leads to a lot of problems. Put simply you tend to get a very unimpressive graph with a scattering of dots all over the place. So what they do is "filter" the data (often using Kalman filtering). What this does is try to remove the "wrong" data. This is a perfectly respectable process when you have a good idea of what the graph should look like - i.e. when you already have proven equations to reflect what the relationship between the two plotted variables should be. So you feed the equations into the filter and it works out which measurements don't fit the equation. So when you feed into the filter program the equation that says that temperature is proportional to CO2 concentration the manipulated graph comes out showing exactly that. Obviously. This is how they removed the so-called "hiatus" in warming that didn't fit their theory. The problem was that some scientists noticed that the data that was deleted was actually their most accurate data (from buoys). Very embarrassing. In fact two leading scientists resigned over the debacle and one said that this "wasn't science - it was crap". I forget his name. But the main problem with your attitude that we might as well reduce CO2 - even if we can't prove it's the main culprit - just in case, is that while we're concentrating ALL our efforts on CO2 we're ignoring the real problems - like building all over the planet and destroying the Earth's stabilisers. And we're doing this to feed and house a rapidly growing population which shows no sign of slowing down. But no politician would DARE mention population control.
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Post by Steve on Nov 29, 2022 10:12:19 GMT
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Post by steppenwolf on Nov 29, 2022 11:11:46 GMT
Yes I know exactly what I'm talking about. But you don't. It's obviously too complicated for you to understand. There are correlations between many things but it doesn't mean causation. Sometimes the correlation is completely by chance and is temporary. Sometimes the correlation is because the two factors are related to a "cofactor" - but no causal link. Sometimes, as in this case, each factor can be causative depending on the conditions. I've studied science for many years. And yes I am saying that there is no correlation between temperature and CO2 in the last 200 years. And if you go back even further you still won't find one. I suggest you broaden your "research" beyond googling stuff that echoes your own ignorance because you obviously have no knowledge of this subject.
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Post by Red Rackham on Nov 29, 2022 12:40:55 GMT
OK Red, I have watched this blogger's video and come to the conclusion that he is using the same tricks he accuses others of using. If you go back to start your examination of rising temperatures at the time of the industrial revolution it is clear that the trend has been for a steadily rising temperature of both the atmosphere and the oceans. Same with sea ice, ups and downs in annual sea ice has been a perfectly normal occurrence year on year due to a variety of factors but the overall trend if you go back further is for a steady decline. I'll admit that I only got halfway through but that was enough to convince me of the old adage - If you torture statistics enough you can get them to say anything you want them to. Now I'm prepared to admit that both ''sides'' employ these strategies and also the tactic of omission but it is nowhere near enough to convince me that climate change is a deliberate hoax. I didn't make it to the end but I'm guessing he didn't mention receding glaciers where the evidence is overwhelming. This blogger is clearly a statistician and not a climatologist and his dreary, slow, monotone presentation makes it hard to listen to but he does prove another old adage that there are lies, damn lies and statistics. Not impressed I'm afraid Red. Also, mathematicians are nerds. I think we should take his dinner money and pull his pants down. You immediately do what Tony Heller says climate alarmists always do, you pick your start date with great care. The 'fact' is prior to the first half of the last century global temperatures had been falling, climate alarmists know this but never mention it. Sea levels used to be much higher than today, and global temperatures were higher 2000 years ago than today, climate alarmists know this too, but never mention it. 50 years ago climate alarmists predicted we would be in another ice age by the year 2000. In 1976 the climate industry said there is "Scientific consensus that the planet is cooling", immediately climate alarmists went into panic mode, wont somebody think of the children. As recently as 2008 the climate industry predicted the Arctic will be completely free of ice in five years [2013] and that New York will be underwater by 2015. The climate industry have been predicting the end is nigh for decades, global cooling, the ice caps melting, acid rain, the ozone layer, and now global warming, they were all going to kill humanity in the next few years. However it's not all bad news, there is one thing the climate industry has taught us, why would any sane person listen to 'experts' who trot out a 16 year old girl to spread their latest predictions of imminent global disaster.
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Post by dappy on Nov 29, 2022 12:48:26 GMT
Red, the question always ends upback at the same point. The experts in the field are telling us that mad made climate change is a thing and that the impact of doing nothing will be at best very significant at worst catastrophic for the world and our grandchildren. There is overwhelming consensus amongst the experts that this is the case. So we have a choice of listening to the experts incurring a relatively small impact on our living standards now to mitigate or avoid the damage later if the experts are correct or take a gamble that politicians (almost always right wing libertarians know better than scientists and ignore them. If we take the gamble those politicians are right, if they are we have a slightly better living standard now if they are wrong we fuck the planet for our grandkids at best, kill them at worst. No sane person would take that gamble on merit but some wish to to further political agenda.
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Post by Orac on Nov 29, 2022 13:43:18 GMT
Experts disagree
..and really, there is currently no such thing as an expert on what is going to happen in the future to something as complex as Earth's atmosphere.
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Post by Steve on Nov 29, 2022 14:42:21 GMT
Yes I know exactly what I'm talking about. But you don't. It's obviously too complicated for you to understand. There are correlations between many things but it doesn't mean causation. Sometimes the correlation is completely by chance and is temporary. Sometimes the correlation is because the two factors are related to a "cofactor" - but no causal link. Sometimes, as in this case, each factor can be causative depending on the conditions. I've studied science for many years. And yes I am saying that there is no correlation between temperature and CO2 in the last 200 years. And if you go back even further you still won't find one. I suggest you broaden your "research" beyond googling stuff that echoes your own ignorance because you obviously have no knowledge of this subject. FFS Steppenwolf make up your bleeding mind. I said there was correlation but not causation and in your charmless style you objected. Now you repeat my correlation isn't causation point as if you thought it all up yourself. And then you deny the correlation Maybe you need a lie down in a darkened room before you look at this Or even from skepticalscience this Sure looks like correlation but then I know what the words means.
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Post by steppenwolf on Nov 29, 2022 15:02:51 GMT
Red, the question always ends upback at the same point. The experts in the field are telling us that mad made climate change is a thing and that the impact of doing nothing will be at best very significant at worst catastrophic for the world and our grandchildren. There is overwhelming consensus amongst the experts that this is the case. So we have a choice of listening to the experts incurring a relatively small impact on our living standards now to mitigate or avoid the damage later if the experts are correct or take a gamble that politicians (almost always right wing libertarians know better than scientists and ignore them. If we take the gamble those politicians are right, if they are we have a slightly better living standard now if they are wrong we fuck the planet for our grandkids at best, kill them at worst. No sane person would take that gamble on merit but some wish to to further political agenda. 1. The truth is not determined by a poll of scientists no matter how erudite - or the Sun would revolve around the Earth. 2. There has NEVER been a poll of scientists about the causes of "climate change" - or even if the current warming period (if it is such) actually is "Climate change" and not just a one of the many blips that occur. 3. No one has ever asked the "scientists" if the main cause of climate change is CO2. Or even a more general question of whether it's primarily man-made. The attribution has NEVER been done. 4. There is no such thing as a "climate change scientist". The so-called climate change models rely on vast teams of specialists in all the areas of weather and many programmers who build the models - and politicians who tell us what their findings are. Science in this area is so specialised that no one can speak for all areas. The age of the polymath has gone. No more Newtons. 5. The climate change models rely entirely on deterministic equations - yet the weather system is stochastic. So it can never work. 6. Despite the efforts of some countries the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere continues to rise. And countries that have seen falls (like the UK) do so by shutting down their own industry and importing fossil fuels from elsewhere, which actually makes it worse. There are two possible attributions for the oft-quoted "95% of scientists say CO2 is the primary driver of warming" - or 97% in some quotes: 1. A Guardian reporter did a google search of scientific papers on "climate change" and counted which "agreed" with climate change and which didn't. He declared that 95% were agreed that this was climate change. Another (slightly less biased reporter) did the same search and found that nearly all the papers were about the consequences of climate change - not the causes. So it was irrelevant. It didn't stop the figure going all over the internet. 2. A group of mathematicians were given access to the IPCC models and they fed in various data to represent various states of the Earth's weather. They varied the concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere and recorded the average global temperature in each case. They found that increasing the CO2 in EVERY case caused higher temperatures, so they concluded that CO2 was 100% the cause of warming. But they lowered the percentage to 97% because "of uncertainty about the accuracy of the models. They needn't have bothered because the models ASSUME that CO2 cause warming - so it's already programmed in. It's all a complete farce. Only stupid people are taken in by this.
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