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Post by Dan Dare on Nov 16, 2023 13:44:38 GMT
So why are schools such an important aspect of any discussion of demographic change? Two reasons, principally.
First the ethnic composition of the present school population provides a reliable leading indicator of the composition of the general population around ten years hence. For example, in 2021 the not White British (= White Other + BME) population of England was 28.3%, around the same as the school population in 2013.
Secondly, the schools census, at least in England, is probably the most accurate and up-to-date representation of population demographics available. Every child that enters the state school system has his ethnicity recorded on the school roll and this stays with him throughout. In addition the schools census is repeated every year, unlike the census, and participation is automatic. A 100% count in fact. For comparison the recent national census in England/Wales and Scotland had return rates of 97% and 79%, respectively.
Schools census data for England is available for the current year and the seven preceding years on the UK.gov website here. A summary of the most recent eight years follows:  This shows the full-time pupil count in state primary and secondary schools at almost nine million in 2023, and increase of around 600,000 since 2015. There were 5.6 million White British (WB) pupils, almost 200,000 fewer than eight years earlier. The proportion of WB pupils was 62.6%, a decrease of 6.7 percentage points from 2015. Conversely, the proportion of not White-British pupils as of 2023 has increased to 37.4% (+6.7%) while the numerical total increased by almost 800,000 over 2015.
This is is very much in line with the historical trend. In 1999, the first year for which census data was publicly released, White British pupils represented 85% of the school population. By 2011 that had fallen to 79% and the current figure, as noted earlier, is 62.6%.
A few years ago the DfE published this chart which illustrates the trendline succinctly; it has not updated it since.  |
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Post by Dan Dare on Nov 16, 2023 15:30:02 GMT
So a final piece of the puzzle that might (but probably won’t) excite some commentary since it brings the matter much closer to home, at least if you live in England and, especially, if you have issue of your own whose future welfare and prospects are a concern for you.
LEA rankings for 2023The above table presents the 152 Local Education Authorities in England, ranked by the proportion of White British pupils in their local school population, both primary and secondary.
As can be readily seen, as of 2023 White British children are no longer a minority in 44 of the 152 LEAs. These include 30 of the 33 London boroughs, the City of London and the following major towns and cities (what Zany would consider as ‘Tiny Dots’ of ethnic settlement): Luton, Leicester, Birmingham, Manchester, Reading, Sandwell, Wolverhampton, Bradford, Nottingham, Blackburn, Coventry, Peterborough and Milton Keynes.
We should remind ourselves that little more than a couple generations ago every one of these places listed in the table would have school populations that were 99.5% if not 100% white British. This much change, this fast, is not only historically unprecedented anywhere, it is also unsustainable.
That’s if current trends continue of course. But what is there to stop them? The drumbeat of propaganda for diversity in the schools and by extension in society as a whole becomes increasingly insistent year by year. The displacement of White British schoolchildren proceeds metronomically on an annual basis – it’s practically certain that the 60% figure will be reached by 2025, signalling that ‘ethnic minorities’ will become 40% of the general population around ten years later, that is by 2045.
That’s already 21 years before the date Coleman predicted, although of course he was contemplating a still-intact UK with millions more White British to count than is likely to be the case.
For my money, England becomes ‘majority minority’ no later than 2055, little more than thirty years from now.
Remember – you read it here first.
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Post by Dan Dare on Nov 17, 2023 8:59:20 GMT
At this stage in the proceedings, the only question left on the table is the “So What?” question, the one which asks why it would matter if England should no longer be mostly populated by actual English people.
The best answer to that is to pose in response what is known as the ‘Brimelow Question’, after Peter Brimelow, an expatriate Brit and the author of 'Alien Nation'. He's writing here about the US, but the question is a universal one which applies to all western liberal democracies including, particularly, the UK. I've yet to see a coherent response but maybe someone here can provide one. |
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Post by sandypine on Nov 17, 2023 9:52:38 GMT
At this stage in the proceedings, the only question left on the table is the “So What?” question, the one which asks why it would matter if England should no longer be mostly populated by actual English people.
The best answer to that is to pose in response what is known as the ‘Brimelow Question’, after Peter Brimelow, an expatriate Brit and the author of 'Alien Nation'. He's writing here about the US, but the question is a universal one which applies to all western liberal democracies including, particularly, the UK. I've yet to see a coherent response but maybe someone here can provide one. I suppose the answer is that they say it is not policy, it is just natural. We know in general that is not true and in fact cannot be true given what has happened but it will still be repeated with the same question so what. |
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Post by Dan Dare on Nov 17, 2023 10:33:14 GMT
You're answering a different question, the 'Whose fault is it?' one.
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Post by johnofgwent on Nov 17, 2023 11:25:27 GMT
If this report, made I understand in 2013, was discussed previously as you say, not quite sure why you wish to raise it again. But OK - let’s play along. First question what is the definition of “white British”. My wife for example is half German. Does that make my kids “white British” or “not white British”. Second question If they are “white British” their current partners are 1) antipodean 2) half Irish half West Indian 3) Indian. Who knows what will happen with them but would any of those partners count as “white British” Third question All six of those people seem fine young people and I suspect any kids would be born in the UK and have good upbringing. Would any resulting kids count as white British Fourth question In a parallel universe none of those relationships work and my kids end up with “white british” partners, would any kids here count as white British Fifth question If the answer is different for Q3 and Q4, what difference does this categorization make to anybody or society in general As i am sure you know britishness has two separate definitions. the first a civic definition dependent on whether you, your father and grandfather had a british passport. the second is one the left try to get you sacked from your job if you express to your first point to resolve the whiteness question one must ask how white you and your half german wife are. If she or her relatives hail from the former german imperial colony on the shores of lake tangynika ? I suspect a failure. If from deepest Saxony however … Which brings me to the next point about historical ethnic britishness. Whilst the extremists contend black romans posted to Scotland, or Hadrian's Wall forts therein, left dependents just as british as any others, more sensible voices have to consider the Angles, Saxons and Jutes just as british as the Celts they beat the shit out of, and the Norsemen who popped over in 1066 with William and beat them up in turn. Ethnically then, your half german wife’s kids have a reasonable claim to ethnic britishness along with the civic Britishness from their ability to hold a british passport This is of course something Melissa merch Sara merch Ieuan ap Barbara Merch Evan ap Dafydd Ap Ieuan Ap Myfanwy Merch Rhys ap Morgan Ap Iwan Rhys Roderic i’w Hirwain (to give my grand daughter her full battle honorific as far as my brother has traced it) will never have |
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