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Post by johnofgwent on Oct 21, 2023 10:41:18 GMT
I’m going to say it because nobody else will Were these the result of mass defection to the left, or a mass outbreak of tory supporters sitting on their arses letting the opposition votes count ? The reality is that in one of them at least the stay at home contingent was almost as great as when everyone was so disillusioned with everyone the BNP got two MEP’s elected. It is a sign of a need for the Tory Party to actually become a Conservative government for a change. We haven’t had one for quite a while. But i rather suspect turnout in the GE wont be that pitiful. If that's true the Tories need to focus on getting those arses off their chairs and round to the ballot box, having said that Labour are renown for having more dead people vote for them than living ones, let's hope for Labours sake there is no scrutinising the voting system.
Former Labour councillor jailed for election fraud (Note the name)
Muhammed Hussain, 61, arranged for the collection of blank ballot papers posted to homes in the ward where he was standing in Blackburn, Lancashire.
Campaigners went house to house asking voters to hand over blank ballots, telling them: "Don't worry, we'll take care of them."
He went on to beat the sitting Tory candidate at the local elections of May 2002.
Hussain pleaded guilty at an earlier hearing to conspiring to defraud the returning officer in the Bastwell ward of Blackburn.
Well the drop in turnout definitely is. Look, fess up time i really don't know what to make of this, the tories of course are all into grinding the bones of the poorest to make bread and need them to repay the billions their rich pals ripped us off with dodgy covid PPE and fraudulent claims because ripping billionaires off a strip woukd fuck Sunak. But i did notice a groundswell in the ‘dump inheritance tax’ clamour Sunak should support that, it legitimises his wife exploiting a treaty he didn’t rescind that’s allowed her to avoid getting a £230 MILLION tax bill for her dad’s company by declaring it to the Indian instead of the british tax man |
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Post by Red Rackham on Oct 21, 2023 17:59:57 GMT
Labour won which is of course a blow for the Tories. But I guarantee that behind the scenes Labour strategists will be worrying, why? Because Labour won Mid Beds with fewar votes than they won during the 2019 election. This suggests Labour didn't win because Tory voters changed side. Labour won because Tory voters stayed at home.
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Post by Montegriffo on Oct 21, 2023 18:08:31 GMT
Labour won which is of course a blow for the Tories. But I guarantee that behind the scenes Labour strategists will be worrying, why? Because Labour won Mid Beds with fewar votes than they won during the 2019 election. This suggests Labour didn't win because Tory voters changed side. Labour won because Tory voters stayed at home. Yup, and they'll probably do the same at the GE. Even Tories don't like this Tory party. They're handing the next election to Labour on a silver platter. I actually laughed out loud when Sunak stood in front of the party conference and told his audience ''it's time for change''. Too bloody right it is. It's just a shame that all we've got to replace them with is Labour but even they will be better than this shower. |
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Post by Red Rackham on Oct 21, 2023 18:27:48 GMT
Labour won which is of course a blow for the Tories. But I guarantee that behind the scenes Labour strategists will be worrying, why? Because Labour won Mid Beds with fewar votes than they won during the 2019 election. This suggests Labour didn't win because Tory voters changed side. Labour won because Tory voters stayed at home. Yup, and they'll probably do the same at the GE. Even Tories don't like this Tory party. They're handing the next election to Labour on a silver platter. I actually laughed out loud when Sunak stood in front of the party conference and told his audience ''it's time for change''. Too bloody right it is. It's just a shame that all we've got to replace them with is Labour but even they will be better than this shower. I've listened to a few political commentators today who quoted similar results from various by-elections in years past. By-election turnouts are usually lower than general elections, but the consensus was that Tory voters registered a protest vote by 'not' voting, a trend that is unlikely to be replicated in the general election and behind closed doors this will be a concern for Labour. |
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Post by Montegriffo on Oct 21, 2023 18:33:57 GMT
Yup, and they'll probably do the same at the GE. Even Tories don't like this Tory party. They're handing the next election to Labour on a silver platter. I actually laughed out loud when Sunak stood in front of the party conference and told his audience ''it's time for change''. Too bloody right it is. It's just a shame that all we've got to replace them with is Labour but even they will be better than this shower. I've listened to a few political commentators today who quoted similar results from various by-elections in years past. By-election turnouts are usually lower than general elections, but the consensus was that Tory voters registered a protest vote by 'not' voting, a trend that is unlikely to be replicated in the general election and behind closed doors this will be a concern for Labour. It won't bother Tory MPs in safe seats but all those sitting in marginal constituencies will be sending their CVs out to banks and oil companies as we speak. |
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Post by Red Rackham on Oct 21, 2023 18:48:56 GMT
I've listened to a few political commentators today who quoted similar results from various by-elections in years past. By-election turnouts are usually lower than general elections, but the consensus was that Tory voters registered a protest vote by 'not' voting, a trend that is unlikely to be replicated in the general election and behind closed doors this will be a concern for Labour. It won't bother Tory MPs in safe seats but all those sitting in marginal constituencies will be sending their CVs out to banks and oil companies as we speak. That may be so, but it's irrelevant. Because an MP from whichever party decides to leave politics doesn't mean that party will no longer be represented in a particular seat. The party the candidate represents is the important factor, the candidate is largely irrelevant. Both Labour and the Tories parachute in unknown candidates. |
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Post by dappy on Oct 21, 2023 22:51:20 GMT
Are you seriously trying to claim that twice overturning massive Tory majorities made this week a bad week for Labour. You are deluded.
Still possible that something could change on the next 12 months but does look a pretty remote possibility.
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Post by johnofgwent on Oct 21, 2023 23:55:56 GMT
Labour won which is of course a blow for the Tories. But I guarantee that behind the scenes Labour strategists will be worrying, why? Because Labour won Mid Beds with fewar votes than they won during the 2019 election. This suggests Labour didn't win because Tory voters changed side. Labour won because Tory voters stayed at home. Yup, and they'll probably do the same at the GE. Even Tories don't like this Tory party. They're handing the next election to Labour on a silver platter. I actually laughed out loud when Sunak stood in front of the party conference and told his audience ''it's time for change''. Too bloody right it is. It's just a shame that all we've got to replace them with is Labour but even they will be better than this shower. I suppose another thing i will say because nobody else will is this weekend marks the end of Sunak’s immunity from letters to the 1922 committee I wonder if any will be written !!!!! |
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Post by johnofgwent on Oct 22, 2023 0:49:40 GMT
Are you seriously trying to claim that twice overturning massive Tory majorities made this week a bad week for Labour. You are deluded. Still possible that something could change on the next 12 months but does look a pretty remote possibility. Well lets see how deluded we are Mid Beds: Wiki has the results from the by election and the last couple of GE’s In 2017 3800 people voted lib dem, In 2019 that rose to 8200 odd and in the by election they got 9200. But whereas in 2019 8200 was a mere 12% of the vote which was double the piss poor 2017 figure that almost lost a deposit, 9200 votes last week was nearly one in four of the total The Tories lost because tory voters held their freeloading hanger on for a peerage in utter contempt. The 2017 vote was 38,900, 62% of all votes cast. In 2019 this only fell by 300 but a higher turnout pushed her to a ‘mere’ 59.8%. Last week only 12,680 turned up to vote for some bloke called Festus with an unpronounceable surname and the vote share fell from pushing two out of three to barely one in three. The LABOUR vote ? In 2017 nearly 18000 turned out to vote labour In 2019 that dropped to 14000 Last week it dropped again to 12680 This is not a trend that suggests a tub thumping labour landslide is it. Moving on to the other one, Tamworth In 2017 the lib dems lost their deposit. In 2019 they barely got it back getting a mere 5.3%. Last week they got 417 votes. Only Howlin Laud Hope and an over hopeful independent got less. Britain First UKIP and Reform ALL did better. The Tory vote here went from 2017’s 28,748(61%) and 2019’s 30,542 (66.3%) to a piss poor 10,403 which was still 4 in 10 of all votes cast Labour ? Their 16,401 voters in 2017 (34.8%) shrank in 2019 to 10,900 (23.7%) and they claimed the seat because a thousand if the 2017 voters came back (11,719 total votes or 45.8% of the turnout) These are not the sort of figures to define a barnstorming Starmer win and any real analyst knows it. Show me a case where a kicking given to a candidate in a by election by a wholesale abandonment of the ballot box barely a year before the vote that counts was folliwed by a similar kicking at the later poll On the cold hard figures it is clear this is no socialist revival. This is, in simple terms, a simple ‘give the Indian a kicking’ lesson. |
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Post by dappy on Oct 22, 2023 7:40:28 GMT
You are free to conclude what you wish from last weeks byelections John including that they spell doom for Labour……
It does rather feel that the Tory post election civil war between populists and one nationers is going to be very hard to delay until next autumn. I wonder if they will be forced to go for an election in Spring to get it over with.
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Post by johnofgwent on Oct 22, 2023 9:47:00 GMT
You are free to conclude what you wish from last weeks byelections John including that they spell doom for Labour…… It does rather feel that the Tory post election civil war between populists and one nationers is going to be very hard to delay until next autumn. I wonder if they will be forced to go for an election in Spring to get it over with. You’re doing it again. You are twisting the facts and suggesting those who point out the facts are themselves deluded Take the blinkers off and look at what is in front of you Labour won. Starmer is out there celebrating like an idiot And no one is saying the obvious Which is that Labour won with a REDUCED vote in one, and an increase in the other barely more than the reduction in the other, and they did so because the clear winner in both places for years lost huge numbers who basically stayed at home to deliver a message to Tory Party Central Tory Party Central started signalling message received very quickly. Jeremy Hunt’s desire to emulate Healey all the way down tbe tax take to Big Issue Sellers has been seen for what it is. Starmer’s message ? That we’re on a winning streak. No. If they had doubled their actual vote numbers i would have said yes the tories are toast. But they did not. They barely moved from last time and they FELL from Corbyn’s time at the helm. Starmer needs to do MUCH better than ths. He SHOULD have had many more out voting his way. None botheref. |
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Post by distant on Oct 22, 2023 9:48:22 GMT
You are comparing the vote in two general election results with a by-election result when you said yourself that "the vote share fell from pushing two out of three to barely one in three". Therefore the Labour share of the vote should have been a lot less but it was only slightly less.
In any case, this is not a seat that Labour would expect to win in a General Election but Tory MPs in more marginal constituencies will be really worried about this result.
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Post by johnofgwent on Oct 22, 2023 11:16:13 GMT
You are comparing the vote in two general election results with a by-election result when you said yourself that "the vote share fell from pushing two out of three to barely one in three". Therefore the Labour share of the vote should have been a lot less but it was only slightly less.
In any case, this is not a seat that Labour would expect to win in a General Election but Tory MPs in more marginal constituencies will be really worried about this result.
It appears you have also misunderstood what i was saying I was indeed comparing general and by-elections I was pointing out that the tory vote absolutely tanked in both seats AND that lib dem support rose slightly in one, a natural and wholly expected event where support for either Labour OR Tory tanks - SOME of the former mainstream voters defect to the lib dems - BUT that Labour support had ALSO waned in one and increased by a fraction in another Let’s just for a minute ponder something In those general elections where the tory vote got a tub thumping majority the turnout had significant numbers not bothering. Why ? I suggest it is the equivalent of my vote in Newport East. So many tens of thousands of sheep turn out to bleat their LaBaaa suppirt it’s pointless me wasting my time voting against tbem. But where it is widely predicted the sheep will not bother because they have had it with the farmer, why did they not turn out in droves ? Why was the labour, and indeed any and all non tory votes not weighed instead of counted. Why the lack of reaction to a hated party ? |
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Post by distant on Oct 22, 2023 12:53:44 GMT
Yeah, I can't understand why thousands more Labour supporters didn't materialize out of thin air to increase the vote in one of the safest Tory seats in the country. Maybe it's because we don't actually have a Sunakered economy and Sunak is doing a great job running the country. Not to mention complete control of our border as promised by Faragi and a world beating health care system.
Everything is hunky dory in Toryland.
I wonder how many letters Graham Brady has received recently?
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