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Post by Deleted on Oct 18, 2023 12:25:43 GMT
Two by elections on Thursday 19th October
(1) Mid Bedfordshire, the more interesting one, and the former constituency of Nadine Dorries, the Tory populist who threw a tantrum because she couldn't get a title. The Conservative majority is 24,664.
(2) Tamworth, where the MP Chris Pincher resigned due to a sexual misconduct scandal, here the Conservative majority is 19,634.
The point is that whatever the actual result, the Tories remain in very deep trouble, because according to polling, Conservatives and Labour are neck and neck on 29 points in Mid Bedfordshire, which represents a 50% drop in Tory support, and a massive swing to Labour .... which with a background of other by election results does not bode very well for Rishi Sunak.
IF the Tories do manage to hang on in Mid Bedfordshire, no doubt Conservatives will ignore the colapse of the Tory vote and say "look, we won" (burying ones head in the sand). Personaly, my gut feeling is that the Tories will lose it
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Post by Fairsociety on Oct 18, 2023 12:36:45 GMT
If the Tory candidates knock on the doors, and tell them Labour want uncontrolled migration, they intend to do nothing about illegal migrants, oh and while we're on the subject they intend to build on your lovely greenbelt green spaces, turn them into concrete jungles to house their foreign voters.
It should be a big Tory victory.
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Post by The Squeezed Middle on Oct 18, 2023 14:37:06 GMT
I agree. I think that the more Starmer talks the less electable Labour become. The Tories need to point out, at every opportunity, what Labour are really about because I suspect that Labour's policies, if known about, would prove hugely unpopular.
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Post by dappy on Oct 18, 2023 14:54:30 GMT
Which policies do you have in mind?
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Post by Deleted on Oct 18, 2023 15:29:26 GMT
Strange, because from where I am sitting, the more Starmer talks, the wider the gap in the polls seems to get.
LAB: 47% (+4)
CON: 27% (-1)
LDEM: 10% (-2) Deltapoll 13th - 16th October 2023
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Post by Hutchyns on Oct 19, 2023 10:37:42 GMT
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Post by steppenwolf on Oct 19, 2023 12:03:39 GMT
Exactly. If people keep voting Tory or labour they can't complain when everything continues to go down the toilet.
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Post by dappy on Oct 19, 2023 12:07:16 GMT
There are plenty of other candidates - I make it five offering a "populist" solution. Plenty of chance for the "silent majority" to make their feelings known in an election that doesn't have much immediate impact on Westminster. Will be interesting to see how many of this ilk there really are.
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Post by piglet on Oct 19, 2023 12:08:39 GMT
Im a tory, a proper one, and would not vote tory if i lived in those places, its in the interest of everyone for the Tories to stand down. Oh, ive just read Hutchyns thing above, hes right, a cast vote for anyone is a disaster. If Labour get in, it wont be for long, you cant wear a mask forever.
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Post by steppenwolf on Oct 19, 2023 12:58:15 GMT
There are plenty of other candidates - I make it five offering a "populist" solution. Plenty of chance for the "silent majority" to make their feelings known in an election that doesn't have much immediate impact on Westminster. Will be interesting to see how many of this ilk there really are. In a by-election people seem to vote tactically for any old shit that'll get rid of the incumbent. That's why the Lib-Dims often do well. What I don't understand is that, when there's a chance of actually changing the govt they just go back to Tory and labour. Nobody else ever gets in. The thing is that most people think that the politicians actually run the country - and they're wary of voting for a fledgling party because they don't think they'd know what to do. They don't realise that it's our daft civil service who run the country. And it doesn't really matter who tells them what to do. They just do fuck all. |
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Post by The Squeezed Middle on Oct 19, 2023 13:14:04 GMT
There are plenty of other candidates - I make it five offering a "populist" solution. Plenty of chance for the "silent majority" to make their feelings known in an election that doesn't have much immediate impact on Westminster. Will be interesting to see how many of this ilk there really are. In a by-election people seem to vote tactically for any old shit that'll get rid of the incumbent. That's why the Lib-Dims often do well. What I don't understand is that, when there's a chance of actually changing the govt they just go back to Tory and labour. Nobody else ever gets in. The thing is that most people think that the politicians actually run the country - and they're wary of voting for a fledgling party because they don't think they'd know what to do. They don't realise that it's our daft civil service who run the country. And it doesn't really matter who tells them what to do. They just do fuck all. I agree with all of the above, aside from the last sentence.
Some love to hate the civil service but they have the unenviable job of trying to turn politicians wishlists into reality. And, as we all know, most politicians are clueless idiots.
It's easy for a dickhead politician to promise the Earth, it's a slightly harder job to actually deliver it.
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Post by Fairsociety on Oct 20, 2023 9:36:23 GMT
The Tories still don't get it.
Because of the disastrous results the Tories are demanding Sunak has immediate tax cuts, tax cuts that only the well off will benefit from in real terms.
It's not the fuckin wealthy who are going to keep them in power, it's the ordinary people on the streets, the Tories should be demanding ... Immediately
Sort out these illegal migrants
Sort out these JSO criminals & all other crimes
Get a grip on inflation
Get the police policing, like arresting shoplifters
Cost of living crisis
Energy costs.
The LAST thing you need to be thinking about right now is TAX CUTS, the fuckin dimwit Tories, no wonder they are loosing by-elections, if they don't get a grip it will be Bye-General Election for them.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2023 10:46:02 GMT
Tax cuts would be very nice, and I know its in the Tory genes to deliver tax cuts
But FOR GOD'S SAKE our public services are in an appaling state after years of swingeing cuts,the immigration service cannot cope, and the Tory government has as much accepted that the cuts went too far, and now they are desparately recruiting.
The Tories have also accepted that they cut police budgets far too much, the 20,000 fewer officers are now been restored. Ambulances dont turn up, staff are leaving, you cannot get a GP appointment, waiting lists continue to go up up up.
Why are we talking about tax cuts ?
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Post by piglet on Oct 20, 2023 11:12:10 GMT
Labour winning the mext election is a poisoned chalice, they are used to replacing Tory governments who leave vast amounts of money that Labour then squanders on bull sh ite. Bring a Labout government on, if you think things are bad now......
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Post by Dogburger on Oct 20, 2023 11:25:06 GMT
Tax cuts would be very nice, and I know its in the Tory genes to deliver tax cuts But FOR GOD'S SAKE our public services are in an appaling state after years of swingeing cuts,the immigration service cannot cope, and the Tory government has as much accepted that the cuts went too far, and now they are desparately recruiting. The Tories have also accepted that they cut police budgets far too much, the 20,000 fewer officers are now been restored. Ambulances dont turn up, staff are leaving, you cannot get a GP appointment, waiting lists continue to go up up up. Why are we talking about tax cuts ? The Tories have had a free hit for 12 years with interest rates .They could have borrowed as much as they liked and repaired our failing infrastructure for basically nothing . Instead they pissed every penny they had up against a railway siding . Don't really see where they have made a success of anything and can't see another 12 months making much difference . Agree with your post Sid though I suspect our answer to it all will be found at opposite ends of the debate . |
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