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Post by Dan Dare on Nov 22, 2023 10:32:15 GMT
But what if we had a three-women crew - Rayner, Diane Abbott and Yasmin Alibhai-Brown? Wouldn't it be worth billions just to be rid of them? Perhaps Naga Munchetty can go along as ballast too. I would prefer Suella Braverman, Nadine Dorries, and Therese Coffey. Yes I see your point. If we included Coffey we wouldn't need Munchetty as well for ballast.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2023 10:35:56 GMT
Personally I’d send Hamas and likud and let them fight over another desert. Would that be the women? Any idea why this thread is in the mind zone, Wapentake? Just wondering if it would be better moved into general chat, as any moderating of mind zone seems to have been abandoned. I can understand why, the task is onerous.
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Post by see2 on Nov 22, 2023 10:40:40 GMT
I think the Chinese leadership would find it pretty hard to justify - ie spending multiple billions sending someone to a desert to die. What is the rationale for sending someone / anyone? What is even the reason for a long term colonisation project? I'm all for a spirit of adventure and exploration, but when there is no reason at all and the cost is so high, it becomes a bit like crossing the Atlantic on a piece of Styrofoam and spending billions doing it. I think the popular conversation on the matter doesn't adequately take into account some pretty harsh realities. The thinking, I believe, is based upon the reality that at some time the sun will begin to get bigger thereby trashing all life on the earth, Mars is some considerable distance further from the sun than is the earth so could offer a means of survival. The overall thinking may be that for the human race to survive a new home in a different solar system might be an option. An option for maybe billions of years into the future, who knows? One thing I suspect that is pretty common in the Human race is that they don't like questions for which they have no answer.
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Post by wapentake on Nov 22, 2023 10:42:39 GMT
Personally I’d send Hamas and likud and let them fight over another desert. Would that be the women? Any idea why this thread is in the mind zone, Wapentake? Just wondering if it would be better moved into general chat, as any moderating of mind zone seems to have been abandoned. I can understand why, the task is onerous. No the lot men and women,no idea why it’s in the mind zone though. I guess I know what you’re getting at (I think )
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Post by see2 on Nov 22, 2023 10:46:55 GMT
Whoever it is they won't be coming back. I suggest we send some of our illegal migrants there. I would suggest sending Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage, Suella Braverman, Tony Blair, and Keir Starmer. But send Corbyn to a gulag just in case he started waving his forever failing 'Magic Wand' around again.
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Post by Orac on Nov 22, 2023 12:08:59 GMT
I think the Chinese leadership would find it pretty hard to justify - ie spending multiple billions sending someone to a desert to die. What is the rationale for sending someone / anyone? What is even the reason for a long term colonisation project? I'm all for a spirit of adventure and exploration, but when there is no reason at all and the cost is so high, it becomes a bit like crossing the Atlantic on a piece of Styrofoam and spending billions doing it. I think the popular conversation on the matter doesn't adequately take into account some pretty harsh realities. The thinking, I believe, is based upon the reality that at some time the sun will begin to get bigger thereby trashing all life on the earth, Mars is some considerable distance further from the sun than is the earth so could offer a means of survival. The overall thinking may be that for the human race to survive a new home in a different solar system might be an option. An option for maybe billions of years into the future, who knows? One thing I suspect that is pretty common in the Human race is that they don't like questions for which they have no answer. See2, I think this is such a distant prospect it is meaningless. The sun (according to theory) is scheduled to inflate massively, but on a time scale comparable to the current age of the universe. This isn't worth planning for because humans will (almost certainly) not exist anyway at this point.
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Post by Montegriffo on Nov 22, 2023 13:30:56 GMT
Clean drinking water for everyone on Earth is a much more worthwhile challenge.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2023 13:59:13 GMT
There is this assumption that a trip to Mars would be a deliberate one way trip. But no one will be sent to Mars without some sort of plan to get them back. If no such plan proves possible no one will go. All of which just adds to the cost to an enormous extent. Even with 1960s technology we managed to land men on the moon and have them take off again. Of course the moon is a lot nearer, though the issue with getting back up off a surface of another body in space is not really one of how far away it is but how great the gravity is. The gravity well of Mars is much less deep than that of Earth, but nevertheless much deeper than that of the moon. The rocket propulsion systems that lifted men back up off the moon, would need to be much more powerful to lift them off the surface of Mars. But with modern technology and more powerful rockets on the Mars lander it might be technically feasible. The boffins will of course crunch the numbers until they come up with something technologically feasible. Otherwise it wont happen i'm not a professional space person myself, but I do have a basic grasp of physics, engineering principles and the nature of outer space (i'm space educated). In my estimation the two journeys are not very comparable. IIRC the journey to the moon takes about 3 days, while the journey to mars would optimistically take multiple months, perhaps more than a whole year. This is important because you need to keep your humans alive in this period and that takes energy, food weight etc etc etc. If mars were where the moon is, i think it might be feasible to send humans and get them back. Mars has a very thin atmosphere which might make the descent problem slightly simpler - though my understanding is that mars' atmosphere is so very thin it barely offers any sizable advantage here and its presence acts as a net extra problem. The 'keeping human alive and functioning in a pipe for multiple months' is a real head-scratcher when you add it to the 'have enough fuel at the end of the outward journey to get back into mars orbit and then back to earth' problem. Getting back from mars orbit to Earth would take a lot of fuel for orbital mechanical reasons and it's not a journey we can wait four years to do either. If i were to cite the biggest knock down reason such a journey is infeasible presently it would be the long journey period. Humans are going to live exclusively in a cramped pipe for a year? While weightless? and, when they arrive they are going to be fine being subjected to the accelerations of the mars descent and Mars' gravity with no external help? I don't think so There have been proposals to build suitable space engines (plus fuel) on mars' surface before a journey, but this itself is a decades long project and nobody yet has made a start. In short, I actually over egged our chances - even a one way trip to Mar's surface by humans is also infeasible. The comparatively vast distance is a severe problem because it means enough food and water must be taken to keep them alive all the way there and all the way back. And the craft would need a shielded area to protect the astronauts from fatal radiation caused by solar flares. This makes feasibility a big problem too, in addition for the need to be able to take off from Mars. Robot rovers dont need to come back and dont need to be fed and watered so are a lot cheaper. And with the rise of AI why send people? Until we can come up with a much cheaper and faster way of getting there that rocket propulsion, the cost will be utterly prohibitive. No democratic nation will bear such a cost. Only a nation with access to vast resources and which can afford to put prestige above the good of its own people - eg China - might actually do it.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2023 14:00:20 GMT
I would prefer Suella Braverman, Nadine Dorries, and Therese Coffey. Yes I see your point. If we included Coffey we wouldn't need Munchetty as well for ballast. Well yes, the problem with sending Therese Coffee is that she would single handedly double the payload.
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Post by see2 on Nov 23, 2023 17:19:36 GMT
The thinking, I believe, is based upon the reality that at some time the sun will begin to get bigger thereby trashing all life on the earth, Mars is some considerable distance further from the sun than is the earth so could offer a means of survival. The overall thinking may be that for the human race to survive a new home in a different solar system might be an option. An option for maybe billions of years into the future, who knows? One thing I suspect that is pretty common in the Human race is that they don't like questions for which they have no answer. See2, I think this is such a distant prospect it is meaningless. The sun (according to theory) is scheduled to inflate massively, but on a time scale comparable to the current age of the universe. This isn't worth planning for because humans will (almost certainly) not exist anyway at this point. It is nevertheless a trigger for thought about space travel, with knock on thinking about what if the earth was threatened by a space rock or rocks big enough to wipe out all life on the earth. I suspect that in the mind of many thinkers space travel is a necessity.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 23, 2023 19:36:29 GMT
The thinking, I believe, is based upon the reality that at some time the sun will begin to get bigger thereby trashing all life on the earth, Mars is some considerable distance further from the sun than is the earth so could offer a means of survival. The overall thinking may be that for the human race to survive a new home in a different solar system might be an option. An option for maybe billions of years into the future, who knows? One thing I suspect that is pretty common in the Human race is that they don't like questions for which they have no answer. See2, I think this is such a distant prospect it is meaningless. The sun (according to theory) is scheduled to inflate massively, but on a time scale comparable to the current age of the universe. This isn't worth planning for because humans will (almost certainly) not exist anyway at this point. The sun generates its heat by a process of nuclear fusion in it's core where in a series of nuclear collisions involving atomic nuclei and electrons, hydrogen is gradually transformed into helium, a process that converts part of the original mass into massive amounts of energy. But as the helium content in the core increases the sun gradually burns hotter. This is a very slow and gradual process, but it is definitely chucking out more heat than it was half a billion years ago. It is currently about 5 billion years old which is a little over a third of the age of the universe thought to be a bit under 14 billion years old. It has been slowly heating up ever since it was born and will continue to do so. Over many tens or hundreds of millions of years this becomes very noticeable but is far too minute to be noticeable on human time scales so is not the phenomenon responsible for climate changes in the last few thousand years. Though more temporary fluctuations in output related to changes in it's magnetic field might well have been a factor, as well as any wobble in the earth's axis of spin or changes in the composition of its atmosphere and suchlike. Anyway, I digress. The sun will continue converting hydrogen into helium at its core, getting progressively hotter over geological timescales as it does so. Until in about another 5 billion years or so the core becomes choked up with helium with little hydrogen left to burn resulting in a temporary diminution in the rate of nuclear fusion with less outward pressure to hold off the inward pull of gravity. At this point the core and the layers immediately about it begin to contract under the weight of gravity, which in turn heats it up further. Layers outside the core then become hot enough to begin fusing hydrogen into helium there, whilst the helium in the core becomes hot enough to start fusing into carbon. This creates more powerful outwards pressure sufficient to almost overwhelm gravity and the outer layers of the sun get blown out into a vastly larger area. The surface area becomes cooler, hence red instead of yellow. Which is why this type of star is known as a red giant. But it is still several thousand degrees Celsius at the surface. When the sun becomes a red giant in about 5 billion years it will grow so large that it will entirely engulf the inner two planets Mercury and Venus. Scientists are uncertain whether it will grow large enough to engulf earth too. If it does our planet will also be destroyed. If it doesnt our planet will be so close to this vast star that it will be melted into a ball of molten rock or metal. Life here would be impossible. Eventually the remnant core will use up all the helium turning it into carbon, whilst in a shell around it the hydrogen will have been converted into helium and nuclear fusion winds down again. By this time the outer layers have been blown off entirely to form a ring of gas around the shrinking core. This is known as a planetary nebula because it resembles a planetary disc in telescopes. As the spent fuel near the core shrinks it of course gets hotter again, the bigger the star the hotter it gets. In stars much larger than our sun the carbon gets so hot that it fuses into heavier and heavier atomic elements, like oxygen and silicon and eventually in the end iron. The bigger the star the faster this happens. When iron forms a core, further fusion becomes impossible and a massive core collapse takes place along with all the surrounding layers. These other collapsing layers rapidly grow so hot that fusion of different elements into others begins throughout the star causing a massive supernova that blows the star apart. Such is the energy involved in such a short period of time that a single supernova can outshine an entire galaxy full of a hundred million stars. The colossal energy involved is so great that it fuses iron into heavier elements still, even though this uses energy rather than creating it. All the elements we know on earth today that are heavier than iron - gold for example - were created in the explosions of massive stars, the dust spreading throughout the galaxy and becoming part of vast dust and gas clouds in space, the collapse of which creates new stars. Our sun formed on one such collapsing gas and dust cloud, itself already seeded with dust grains of heavy elements created in massive earlier stars and their explosions. The cores of such massive stars are not blown apart with them but continue to rapidly collapse under the weight of their own mass. So powerful is the gravity that all electrons and protons are squeezed together to form neutrons with no atomic space left between them. These are neutron stars consisting of nothing but densely packed neutrons which can contain more mass than our sun squeezed down into something only a few miles across. A teaspoon full of this material would weigh millions of tons. And as spinning objects spin much more rapidly as they contract, something so small with so much mass can spin many thousands of times a second. These weird stars are fiercely magnetic and send out a continuous blast of intense radio waves from their poles. If they are aligned in such a way that this blast of radio waves reaches us with every spin, we detect them in the form of regular powerful bursts of radio waves or pulses. This is why when first detected they were known as pulsars. When a core is crushed into a neutron star the powerful nuclear forces involved are sufficient to prevent any further collapse, but only if the mass does not exceed a certain point known as the Chandrasekhar limit. If the mass is greater than this even a neutron star cannot survive and it collapses into a black hole. But I have been seriously digressing again. The mass of a star like our sun is not great enough for it to heat up enough due to gravitational collapse to burn much carbon into anything heavier. Nor is it great enough for the core to collapse into a neutron star. Instead it will collapse into a compact object perhaps the size of a planet to become a white dwarf, slowly cooling over billions more years. The earth, if it has survived at all will now be a cold and barren rock in space, all life upon it long gone. But if the Sun is destined to become a red giant in 5 billion years or so, it does not mean that life on earth is destined to survive here for that long. Because the sun is getting gradually hotter it will destroy life here much sooner. It will probably be becoming uncomfortably hot within half a billion years and it is reckoned that by about 1 billion years from now, 2 billion years at most, the heat will trigger a runaway greenhouse effect and we will become another hell hole like Venus. But as things get too hot here, other bodies much further out will be warming up too, and if there survives an intelligent species on this planet capable of travelling elsewhere, Mars, and later the moons of Jupiter might become a possible oases for a time. But eventually life throughout our solar system will be impossible anymore unless in artificial underground areas on rocky bodies.
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Post by Orac on Nov 23, 2023 20:10:25 GMT
Srb, nice summary. Stellar life-cycle and chemistry is quite interesting and surprising.
If we go back two billion years into Earth's history, we arrive at the point of the emergence of sexual reproduction. Dinosaurs emerged a mere 250 million years ago - that's ~ 1/10th of the time ago. Dinosaurs could have emerged and gone extinct again nearly 8 times over in the 2 billion year time period it will take the sun to 'go funny'. I believe those white dwarf 'remnants' are thought to be all but eternal with predicted lifespans in trillions of years
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Post by Deleted on Nov 23, 2023 21:08:07 GMT
Srb, nice summary. Stellar life-cycle and chemistry is quite interesting and surprising. If we go back two billion years into Earth's history, we arrive at the point of the emergence of sexual reproduction. Dinosaurs emerged a mere 250 million years ago - that's ~ 1/10th of the time ago. Dinosaurs could have emerged and gone extinct again nearly 8 times over in the 2 billion year time period it will take the sun to 'go funny'. I believe those white dwarf 'remnants' are thought to be all but eternal with predicted lifespans in trillions of years Certainly, the universe is not yet old enough for any white dwarfs to have cooled into black dwarfs. So the timescales involved are indeed immense. And evidence for the most primitive forms of life date it back billions of years, to a point not long after what is referred to as the Late Great Heavy Bombardment, when large asteroidal bodies were frequently bombarding the Earth and other planets. And yet it is only in the last few hundred million years - a fraction of those billions - that complex multi-cellular life forms have arrived. It is inevitable for thoughtful people to wonder why it took so long for the latter to happen and what triggered it. But no one, not even the scientists, has enough information to speculate intelligently about that. I myself have no idea how even very primitive life developed initially, nor what triggered the sudden rise of ever more complexity in the last few hundred million years.
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Post by johnofgwent on Nov 29, 2023 23:56:45 GMT
Dear johnofgwent, Thank you for making the good point that if a woman is the first human person on Mars then it must be an actual, real biological woman and not just a man who has announced that they are somehow now a woman. Veronika Oleksychenko I explained why from an anatomical, physiological and biochemical standpoint a biological woman is likely to survive in a harsh environment where a man would find survival a greater challenge But you touch on a point i overlooked. Endurance in a less than optimal environment requires a mental resilience as well as a physical one. A person put under that stress must of necessity have reserves of calm and confidence and self assurance and try as i might i just CANT see a person who is not entirely comfortable in the body God - or Darwin’s logic if you prefer - provided when they were born. If you struggle with inner demons in regard to your collection of personal dangly bits, you’re simply not fit for this mission
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Post by see2 on Nov 30, 2023 9:55:02 GMT
See2, I think this is such a distant prospect it is meaningless. The sun (according to theory) is scheduled to inflate massively, but on a time scale comparable to the current age of the universe. This isn't worth planning for because humans will (almost certainly) not exist anyway at this point. But if the Sun is destined to become a red giant in 5 billion years or so, it does not mean that life on earth is destined to survive here for that long. Because the sun is getting gradually hotter it will destroy life here much sooner. It will probably be becoming uncomfortably hot within half a billion years and it is reckoned that by about 1 billion years from now, 2 billion years at most, the heat will trigger a runaway greenhouse effect and we will become another hell hole like Venus. But as things get too hot here, other bodies much further out will be warming up too, and if there survives an intelligent species on this planet capable of travelling elsewhere, Mars, and later the moons of Jupiter might become a possible oases for a time. But eventually life throughout our solar system will be impossible anymore unless in artificial underground areas on rocky bodies. It seems that much of the logic applied today is based upon the engineering limitations that exist today. Who knows, life in space could become a normality at some stage with interactions between separate communities in their own life bubbles, as the Human species searches for a new home.
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