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Post by sandypine on Jul 1, 2023 9:34:09 GMT
You are changing direction here. The data used is as sourced from the NOAA, no one has disputed that (except you). The specification of weather stations is as defined by the NOAA no one has disputed that. The compliance of those weather stations to the NOAA requirements has been assessed accurately, no one has disputed that. All that is disputed is the findings and questions on the methodology of the sampling/selection procedure. There is no dispute that of the stations tested 96% were not in compliance with the NOAA specs. What is in dispute is what that means in terms of all the other stations and the overall readings. About 90 stations were the same stations as considered in the critical 2009 report and a further 30 were newer stations. The stations were located nationwide although the sampling was not totally random so statistical inferences are to a certain extent subjective opinions ( a not uncommon event in climate science and the reporting and commenting on it) The fact checkers thought that a scientific paper should have been written and published. This is nonsense, unqualified personnel assess many things in many ways for many things. This is the whole point of specifications, procedures and quality assurance as it is usually unqualified personnel taking readings working to specifications and procedures laid down by the NOAA. Assessing how those specifications and procedures are being met is not a scientific finding it is a straightforward spec and procedural compliance observation. I'm not changing direction. I have pointed out to you several times that WUWT etc are well known for taking true figures and misrepresenting them by selective quoting and use of figures. If they got the figures from the NOAA lets see the originals, not the pruned and misquoted version. Why are you struggling to give these figures? It is also true that the NOAA are well known for saying WUWT are well known for misrepresenting. You keep asking for figures yet all figures are freely available for consideration, as are all weather stations freely available (except those on private land) for viewing by those who are interested. Instead of saying the Heartland Institute is wrong why do you not instead wonder why of 128 stations tested, and it is intrinsically unimportant if they were specifically selected, 96% were at odds with the NOAA specification. (NB neither the NOAA nor anyone else denies this fact). Please remember that these are official weather stations upon which the IPCC base their 'climate catastrophe'. Instead o saying the Heartland are wrong to draw the conclusions they do why not ask are the IPCC wrong to draw the conclusions they have. I quote from a 1912 scientist which is as true to day as it was then " nothing so nasty in the world of science as those scientists within it" Do not believe for one minute that the world of science is beyond reproach. As regards 'giving figures' the climate change figures are several mammoth libraries of mammoth volumes of raw data, corrected data, assessments and reports. Wili Eschenbach frequently crunches the numbers on WUWT from official sources as I have linked to before. No one queries if he using the right figures. no one queries the figures used by WUWT your own link only questioned the conclusions. So if you want figures you would have to be very specific, one of your own links provided several hundred figures and said, there was a warming trend. The problem lies in that when others come to plot the same figures in various ways different conclusions are reached. So as always it is denigrate the messenger, ignore the message.
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Post by Toreador on Jul 1, 2023 9:37:48 GMT
No that's because I would not like to see people driven to their own destruction by cultish behaviour. So we having a degree of common sense offer you alternatives which you get decide if you have a future not completely ruled by psychology and political totalitarians. You confuse science with politics. If scientists spot an asteroid on its way to hit earth, the decision to switch all efforts to stop it is not political or psychological. If a blogger claims the scientists might have got some minor aspect of the size of the asteroid wrong and we can't know how much destruction it may cause, my attitude is not to give that blogger equal credence to the scientists who warn of disaster. Nor do I think to pause our efforts until we know for sure and its possibly too late or requires far more effort to save the planet. Basically I trust the scientists of the world, especially when so many of them agree. Oh Zany, I wish you had watched a 1960's series called "The Interlocutor", hosted by a brilliant young Michael Mansfield QC. Each week he had a group of politicians, scientists, civil servants church people among many other people of varied backgrounds, if I remember correctly, a panel of somewhere between 12 and 20 people. He would put a proposition for them to discuss and answer questions. One question was similar to yours and the responses, particularly from politicians and civil service were quite frightening, particularly what should have been their responses to the public. You can try to find copy of the episodes but I got zilch response from the BBC and ditto from Michael Mansfield. I suspect the footage was destroyed as showing up the experts who took part and the damaging effect on public perception, especially as Mansfield's proposition was a trap they all fell for.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2023 9:39:08 GMT
These are yet more unsubstantiated claims, and I haven't agreed or disagreed with what has been posted. I have merely suggested that you try and address this scientifically, but you seem fixed on making it about some institution. You are aware that these institutions and 'scientists' rely on money, right? You wish me to address the claims made by WUWT etc, which I have done very many times from the first time they were raised. Each time I disprove one the pseudo scientists simply jump to the next, round and round. I never get any answers in the other direction. No response to my asking how many is 89 weather stations in comparison to all the U.S weather stations. Or why is there no conflict between satellite measurements and land ones. As soon as I raise these points you return to the safety of calling me a zealot. I have also addressed the claims that the worlds scientists are all prepared to perjure themselves to get next years funding. It seems impossibly unlikely that Scientists from every nation across the world including China all got together to waste their governments money. That institutes like the NOAA who are funded without any research grants would also go along with the scam. I find the claim implausible. Then why are you wasting your time on here? It isn't a discussion, it's just you playing the role of the authority over science and belittling others who make the attempt to address the topic scientifically. I can understand your frustration with you not being an actual scientist in any scientific field, so I will politely point out that your outright dismissals to maintain your own dogmatic view is not scientific. Even in a minority of one, the truth is still the truth.
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Post by zanygame on Jul 1, 2023 9:45:00 GMT
I'm not changing direction. I have pointed out to you several times that WUWT etc are well known for taking true figures and misrepresenting them by selective quoting and use of figures. If they got the figures from the NOAA lets see the originals, not the pruned and misquoted version. Why are you struggling to give these figures? It is also true that the NOAA are well known for saying WUWT are well known for misrepresenting. You keep asking for figures yet all figures are freely available for consideration, as are all weather stations freely available (except those on private land) for viewing by those who are interested. Instead of saying the Heartland Institute is wrong why do you not instead wonder why of 128 stations tested, and it is intrinsically unimportant if they were specifically selected, 96% were at odds with the NOAA specification. (NB neither the NOAA nor anyone else denies this fact). Please remember that these are official weather stations upon which the IPCC base their 'climate catastrophe'. Instead o saying the Heartland are wrong to draw the conclusions they do why not ask are the IPCC wrong to draw the conclusions they have. I quote from a 1912 scientist which is as true to day as it was then " nothing so nasty in the world of science as those scientists within it" Do not believe for one minute that the world of science is beyond reproach. As regards 'giving figures' the climate change figures are several mammoth libraries of mammoth volumes of raw data, corrected data, assessments and reports. Wili Eschenbach frequently crunches the numbers on WUWT from official sources as I have linked to before. No one queries if he using the right figures. no one queries the figures used by WUWT your own link only questioned the conclusions. So if you want figures you would have to be very specific, one of your own links provided several hundred figures and said, there was a warming trend. The problem lies in that when others come to plot the same figures in various ways different conclusions are reached. So as always it is denigrate the messenger, ignore the message. I spend a fair amount of time reading up on various claims. I don't think its unreasonable to ask you to back up the claims cut and paste from WUWT. If your only source is one with various warnings about its unreliability then I'm not going to believe you. You haven't even researched to see whether 89 stations being inaccurate is a lot or a little. Nor looked at comparable readings from other sources, nor whether stations not next to urban areas are also recording temperature rises.
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Post by zanygame on Jul 1, 2023 9:47:11 GMT
You confuse science with politics. If scientists spot an asteroid on its way to hit earth, the decision to switch all efforts to stop it is not political or psychological. If a blogger claims the scientists might have got some minor aspect of the size of the asteroid wrong and we can't know how much destruction it may cause, my attitude is not to give that blogger equal credence to the scientists who warn of disaster. Nor do I think to pause our efforts until we know for sure and its possibly too late or requires far more effort to save the planet. Basically I trust the scientists of the world, especially when so many of them agree. Oh Zany, I wish you had watched a 1960's series called "The Interlocutor", hosted by a brilliant young Michael Mansfield QC. Each week he had a group of politicians, scientists, civil servants church people among many other people of varied backgrounds, if I remember correctly, a panel of somewhere between 12 and 20 people. He would put a proposition for them to discuss and answer questions. One question was similar to yours and the responses, particularly from politicians and civil service were quite frightening, particularly what should have been their responses to the public. You can try to find copy of the episodes but I got zilch response from the BBC and ditto from Michael Mansfield. I suspect the footage was destroyed as showing up the experts who took part and the damaging effect on public perception, especially as Mansfield's proposition was a trap they all fell for. Thanks Toreador. I might see if I can still find them and have a look. Watched the Q time Brexit special this morning. Nothing new, same old from both sides. Lol.
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Post by sandypine on Jul 1, 2023 10:03:18 GMT
It is also true that the NOAA are well known for saying WUWT are well known for misrepresenting. You keep asking for figures yet all figures are freely available for consideration, as are all weather stations freely available (except those on private land) for viewing by those who are interested. Instead of saying the Heartland Institute is wrong why do you not instead wonder why of 128 stations tested, and it is intrinsically unimportant if they were specifically selected, 96% were at odds with the NOAA specification. (NB neither the NOAA nor anyone else denies this fact). Please remember that these are official weather stations upon which the IPCC base their 'climate catastrophe'. Instead o saying the Heartland are wrong to draw the conclusions they do why not ask are the IPCC wrong to draw the conclusions they have. I quote from a 1912 scientist which is as true to day as it was then " nothing so nasty in the world of science as those scientists within it" Do not believe for one minute that the world of science is beyond reproach. As regards 'giving figures' the climate change figures are several mammoth libraries of mammoth volumes of raw data, corrected data, assessments and reports. Wili Eschenbach frequently crunches the numbers on WUWT from official sources as I have linked to before. No one queries if he using the right figures. no one queries the figures used by WUWT your own link only questioned the conclusions. So if you want figures you would have to be very specific, one of your own links provided several hundred figures and said, there was a warming trend. The problem lies in that when others come to plot the same figures in various ways different conclusions are reached. So as always it is denigrate the messenger, ignore the message. I spend a fair amount of time reading up on various claims. I don't think its unreasonable to ask you to back up the claims cut and paste from WUWT. If your only source is one with various warnings about its unreliability then I'm not going to believe you. You haven't even researched to see whether 89 stations being inaccurate is a lot or a little. Nor looked at comparable readings from other sources, nor whether stations not next to urban areas are also recording temperature rises. What do you mean by 'back up'? The cut and paste you mention is that WUWT is like many blog areas a location whereby much information is collated especially information that the official channels would prefer not to be available. There are numerous warnings about the reliability of the IPCC assessments, from many many scientists, yet you seem to accept the IPCC as beyond reproach. I referred to 128 stations, I referred to 96% being well outwith the NOAA specifications, the report has contained within it photographic evidence of car park located weather stations, stations by rock piles, stations by air conditioning units, by buildings, by generators, by glasshouses, stations falling apart and by roads and runways. I cannot make you look, all I can do is draw conclusions from your unwillingness to look and your dogmatic stance that the IPCC world of science is right and everyone else is not just wrong but evil in their intent. It is not evil to point out that a sample of the official stations are not operating as they should and the error they are recording, which may or may not be corrected downwards, is giving a false high. If it is corrected downwards then again that is a an uncertainty in the values.
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Post by zanygame on Jul 1, 2023 10:04:34 GMT
You wish me to address the claims made by WUWT etc, which I have done very many times from the first time they were raised. Each time I disprove one the pseudo scientists simply jump to the next, round and round. I never get any answers in the other direction. No response to my asking how many is 89 weather stations in comparison to all the U.S weather stations. Or why is there no conflict between satellite measurements and land ones. As soon as I raise these points you return to the safety of calling me a zealot. I have also addressed the claims that the worlds scientists are all prepared to perjure themselves to get next years funding. It seems impossibly unlikely that Scientists from every nation across the world including China all got together to waste their governments money. That institutes like the NOAA who are funded without any research grants would also go along with the scam. I find the claim implausible. Then why are you wasting your time on here? It isn't a discussion, it's just you playing the role of the authority over science and belittling others who make the attempt to address the topic scientifically. I can understand your frustration with you not being an actual scientist in any scientific field, so I will politely point out that your outright dismissals to maintain your own dogmatic view is not scientific. Even in a minority of one, the truth is still the truth. I'm trying to answer what I see as genuine questions. I read what the posters say, I look up the subject including any links provided and answer as best I can. I'm interested in science but not a scientist. Surely you have enough people on here simply rubber stamping the claims because they agree with them, do you really want another one? As I have said, the only outright dismissals I make are for questions and websites I have already spent hours addressing. You would need to read back to see them. As for the truth, if its possible for all the scientific institutes on the planet to twist the truth to their ends, then its just as possible for WUWT to do the same. Difference between you and me is I went to the WUWT site, looked at the claims and researched them. I spent many hours (because I'm interested) looking at the details of the claims and found them to be misrepresentative of what was said and the facts. Have you spent equal amount of time doing the same? Perhaps you could stop addressing my many faults and try and explain how the CMA were persuaded to join in the great Western science conspiracy. Why the Chinese government have spent Billions switching to renewables. Why Australia are tackling climate change even though they were in the rear guard of denying its existence. Perhaps if you attempt to address these then you might be able to accuse me of outright dismissal of YOUR points.
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Post by zanygame on Jul 1, 2023 10:14:32 GMT
I spend a fair amount of time reading up on various claims. I don't think its unreasonable to ask you to back up the claims cut and paste from WUWT. If your only source is one with various warnings about its unreliability then I'm not going to believe you. You haven't even researched to see whether 89 stations being inaccurate is a lot or a little. Nor looked at comparable readings from other sources, nor whether stations not next to urban areas are also recording temperature rises. What do you mean by 'back up'? The cut and paste you mention is that WUWT is like many blog areas a location whereby much information is collated especially information that the official channels would prefer not to be available. There are numerous warnings about the reliability of the IPCC assessments, from many many scientists, yet you seem to accept the IPCC as beyond reproach. I referred to 128 stations, I referred to 96% being well outwith the NOAA specifications, the report has contained within it photographic evidence of car park located weather stations, stations by rock piles, stations by air conditioning units, by buildings, by generators, by glasshouses, stations falling apart and by roads and runways. I cannot make you look, all I can do is draw conclusions from your unwillingness to look and your dogmatic stance that the IPCC world of science is right and everyone else is not just wrong but evil in their intent. It is not evil to point out that a sample of the official stations are not operating as they should and the error they are recording, which may or may not be corrected downwards, is giving a false high. If it is corrected downwards then again that is a an uncertainty in the values. I can't explain any clearer. Perhaps by example. If I claim 10,000 ford cars were found to have inaccurate odometers that can sound like a serious issue, until I know how many Ford cars there are altogether. If its 20,000 its serious at 50%, but if its 300 million then its insignificant at 0.003% Which is why I asked you to look into how many reading stations, satellites etc there were in comparison to the 120 erroneous ones. Incidentally that is why I found WUWT duplicitous in the first place. Lies damned lies and STATISTICS.
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Post by jonksy on Jul 1, 2023 10:22:03 GMT
And did you suffer your usual blindness? I'll ask once more and ignore your usual uncooperative rudeness. Who do you mean by USBC. I assume by addressing it to me personally you wanted my response, if not then fine I'll ignore. I told you look it up yourself.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2023 10:25:05 GMT
Then why are you wasting your time on here? It isn't a discussion, it's just you playing the role of the authority over science and belittling others who make the attempt to address the topic scientifically. I can understand your frustration with you not being an actual scientist in any scientific field, so I will politely point out that your outright dismissals to maintain your own dogmatic view is not scientific. Even in a minority of one, the truth is still the truth. I'm trying to answer what I see as genuine questions. I read what the posters say, I look up the subject including any links provided and answer as best I can. I'm interested in science but not a scientist. Surely you have enough people on here simply rubber stamping the claims because they agree with them, do you really want another one? As I have said, the only outright dismissals I make are for questions and websites I have already spent hours addressing. You would need to read back to see them. As for the truth, if its possible for all the scientific institutes on the planet to twist the truth to their ends, then its just as possible for WUWT to do the same. Difference between you and me is I went to the WUWT site, looked at the claims and researched them. I spent many hours (because I'm interested) looking at the details of the claims and found them to be misrepresentative of what was said and the facts. Have you spent equal amount of time doing the same? Perhaps you could stop addressing my many faults and try and explain how the CMA were persuaded to join in the great Western science conspiracy. Why the Chinese government have spent Billions switching to renewables. Why Australia are tackling climate change even though they were in the rear guard of denying its existence. Perhaps if you attempt to address these then you might be able to accuse me of outright dismissal of YOUR points. Again, none of this matters in comparison to the actual science. I'm also in favour of listening to Sandypine, because he's making the effort which the decent folk on here will appreciate. He's looking at data and how that data is acquired and managed. I honestly do not think we require an authority or the Chinese government to tell us what's what. You just require an understanding of science to see if it's true or false, or more fuzzy where any calculated figures or predictions could be under or over exaggerated, which has clearly been the case a number of times.
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Post by zanygame on Jul 1, 2023 12:42:48 GMT
I'll ask once more and ignore your usual uncooperative rudeness. Who do you mean by USBC. I assume by addressing it to me personally you wanted my response, if not then fine I'll ignore. I told you look it up yourself. You don't get to tell me what to do.
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Post by sandypine on Jul 1, 2023 12:50:09 GMT
What do you mean by 'back up'? The cut and paste you mention is that WUWT is like many blog areas a location whereby much information is collated especially information that the official channels would prefer not to be available. There are numerous warnings about the reliability of the IPCC assessments, from many many scientists, yet you seem to accept the IPCC as beyond reproach. I referred to 128 stations, I referred to 96% being well outwith the NOAA specifications, the report has contained within it photographic evidence of car park located weather stations, stations by rock piles, stations by air conditioning units, by buildings, by generators, by glasshouses, stations falling apart and by roads and runways. I cannot make you look, all I can do is draw conclusions from your unwillingness to look and your dogmatic stance that the IPCC world of science is right and everyone else is not just wrong but evil in their intent. It is not evil to point out that a sample of the official stations are not operating as they should and the error they are recording, which may or may not be corrected downwards, is giving a false high. If it is corrected downwards then again that is a an uncertainty in the values. I can't explain any clearer. Perhaps by example. If I claim 10,000 ford cars were found to have inaccurate odometers that can sound like a serious issue, until I know how many Ford cars there are altogether. If its 20,000 its serious at 50%, but if its 300 million then its insignificant at 0.003% Which is why I asked you to look into how many reading stations, satellites etc there were in comparison to the 120 erroneous ones. Incidentally that is why I found WUWT duplicitous in the first place. Lies damned lies and STATISTICS. It was a sample, a bit like polling, you take a measure of a representative number and apply the figures with levels of uncertainty. I do not apply that to the WUWT values becasue, having been a sampler, I am well aware that if you apply any selection to a sample it raises issues. The sample for the second report was skewed to the stations that had failed in the first report, however with a space of about a dozen years one would think that re-siting and/or some form of correction undertaken. Apparently not. The remainder of the stations assessed were random throughout the nation. So I cannot statistically infer that 96% fail I can however infer a serious problem with the stations nationwide.The same applies here if we take just the stations that the last ten official highest UK temps have been recorded there are serious issues in terms of their accuracy as an uncorrupted temperature reading. The same applies to your ten thousand ford cars. If the ten thousand were a random sample there is a serious problem irrespective of their proportion to all ford cars. If the ten thousand were partly selected as ones that had been wrong in the first place from a random sample there is still a potential massive problem. Ignoring it is not an option but seems to be your preferred MO. Realistically it is for the IPCC to prove their assessments are free from potential flaws, that is not done by calling those who question the values names and lies damn lies and statistics applies to their work as well as has been shown many times in the past. EDIT as regards satellite confirmation it was not the case initially until correction factors were applied, the new infrared readings are lauded as showing a match with the surface temps although I would hasten to add the report is at best difficult to follow and it is unclear what the match is.
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Post by jonksy on Jul 1, 2023 12:54:18 GMT
I told you look it up yourself. You don't get to tell me what to do. Why would I attempt too you never listen anyway...
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Post by sandypine on Jul 1, 2023 13:02:42 GMT
Then why are you wasting your time on here? It isn't a discussion, it's just you playing the role of the authority over science and belittling others who make the attempt to address the topic scientifically. I can understand your frustration with you not being an actual scientist in any scientific field, so I will politely point out that your outright dismissals to maintain your own dogmatic view is not scientific. Even in a minority of one, the truth is still the truth. As for the truth, if its possible for all the scientific institutes on the planet to twist the truth to their ends, then its just as possible for WUWT to do the same. Difference between you and me is I went to the WUWT site, looked at the claims and researched them. I spent many hours (because I'm interested) looking at the details of the claims and found them to be misrepresentative of what was said and the facts. Of course it possible for any group to involve itself in nefarious actions to further their agenda. The difference is that the IPCC are making claims and seeking action from the planet's population. WUWT do not have that agenda, they may be seeking to discredit said IPCC agenda but then surely the IPCC case must be watertight against such actions, not be made immune from such actions by labelling it misinformation.
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Post by zanygame on Jul 1, 2023 13:58:04 GMT
I can't explain any clearer. Perhaps by example. If I claim 10,000 ford cars were found to have inaccurate odometers that can sound like a serious issue, until I know how many Ford cars there are altogether. If its 20,000 its serious at 50%, but if its 300 million then its insignificant at 0.003% Which is why I asked you to look into how many reading stations, satellites etc there were in comparison to the 120 erroneous ones. Incidentally that is why I found WUWT duplicitous in the first place. Lies damned lies and STATISTICS. It was a sample, a bit like polling, you take a measure of a representative number and apply the figures with levels of uncertainty. I do not apply that to the WUWT values becasue, having been a sampler, I am well aware that if you apply any selection to a sample it raises issues. The sample for the second report was skewed to the stations that had failed in the first report, however with a space of about a dozen years one would think that re-siting and/or some form of correction undertaken. Apparently not. The remainder of the stations assessed were random throughout the nation. So I cannot statistically infer that 96% fail I can however infer a serious problem with the stations nationwide.The same applies here if we take just the stations that the last ten official highest UK temps have been recorded there are serious issues in terms of their accuracy as an uncorrupted temperature reading. The same applies to your ten thousand ford cars. If the ten thousand were a random sample there is a serious problem irrespective of their proportion to all ford cars. If the ten thousand were partly selected as ones that had been wrong in the first place from a random sample there is still a potential massive problem. Ignoring it is not an option but seems to be your preferred MO. Realistically it is for the IPCC to prove their assessments are free from potential flaws, that is not done by calling those who question the values names and lies damn lies and statistics applies to their work as well as has been shown many times in the past. EDIT as regards satellite confirmation it was not the case initially until correction factors were applied, the new infrared readings are lauded as showing a match with the surface temps although I would hasten to add the report is at best difficult to follow and it is unclear what the match is. I have no objections to sampling. But that requires an even higher degree of trust as its much easier to fiddle the figures in a sample. The IPCC are happy their readings are accurate. I would ask accuracy to what degree, I think your link said +-0.03 of a degree, but yet again the really obvious following question is not answered. That question being, did they still consistently show increases in temperature year on year?
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