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Post by Toreador on Jun 1, 2023 13:23:10 GMT
No cheekiness in mind-zone. Thank you Precisely, lets have proper answers. You said "You want me to do the science for you?" I said yes. So come on give me your explanation for the current increases in temperature. These increases, what are they over the past 10 years and past 50 years |
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Post by colbops on Jun 1, 2023 13:44:33 GMT
I've not heard that. Do you have a link? Highlights. Earth's temperature has risen by an average of 0.14° Fahrenheit (0.08° Celsius) per decade since 1880, or about 2° F in total. The rate of warming since 1981 is more than twice as fast: 0.32° F (0.18° C) per decade. Personally I don't think looking at rate of change since 1981 is all that useful it is just too short a timeframe when considering climate change. It is a big picture subject. The rate of change now is not appreciably different to the rate of change 450 million years ago as the earth exited an ice age. Its not appreciably different to several interglacial periods 350 to 280 million years ago. There are several time periods where temperatures have risen as rapidly to a point higher than they are now, and then dropped dramatically as the earth entered another glacial period. There are times when the earth has exited an ice age and its taken over 100 million years to enter another, while on other occasions its been less than a million. The reverse is also true. The current Ice age started 26 million years ago. In the ice age immediately before this one, temps at their lowest were some 5 degrees higher than they are now. The low temps in this ice age are arguably a new record, and nothing remotely comparable has been seen since more than 260 million years ago. Whether the earth comes out of the current ice age or tips back into another glacial period before it does is impossible to say. The only thing we can be sure of is that none of us will live long enough to find out. |
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Post by zanygame on Jun 1, 2023 16:07:59 GMT
Highlights. Earth's temperature has risen by an average of 0.14° Fahrenheit (0.08° Celsius) per decade since 1880, or about 2° F in total. The rate of warming since 1981 is more than twice as fast: 0.32° F (0.18° C) per decade. Personally I don't think looking at rate of change since 1981 is all that useful it is just too short a timeframe when considering climate change. It is a big picture subject. The rate of change now is not appreciably different to the rate of change 450 million years ago as the earth exited an ice age. Its not appreciably different to several interglacial periods 350 to 280 million years ago. There are several time periods where temperatures have risen as rapidly to a point higher than they are now, and then dropped dramatically as the earth entered another glacial period. There are times when the earth has exited an ice age and its taken over 100 million years to enter another, while on other occasions its been less than a million. The reverse is also true. The current Ice age started 26 million years ago. In the ice age immediately before this one, temps at their lowest were some 5 degrees higher than they are now. The low temps in this ice age are arguably a new record, and nothing remotely comparable has been seen since more than 260 million years ago. Whether the earth comes out of the current ice age or tips back into another glacial period before it does is impossible to say. The only thing we can be sure of is that none of us will live long enough to find out. OK. 1, It doesn't matter what earths temperature was 450 million years ago. What matters is that humans, animals and plants are adjusted to temperatures and weather they have had for the last 500 years. The rapid change in these conditions is catching out humans, animals and plants. Changes in min max temperatures, rainfall intensity and frequency , wind speeds, tide heights etc effect human infrastructure and animal habitats. 2, We do know when and how long ice ages are going to be, these are not random events they are caused by earths trajectory around the sun and the slow changes in its tilt, we mapped these out back in the 1940's |
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Post by zanygame on Jun 1, 2023 16:09:18 GMT
Precisely, lets have proper answers. You said "You want me to do the science for you?" I said yes. So come on give me your explanation for the current increases in temperature. These increases, what are they over the past 10 years and past 50 years That's up to B4, he's the one offering to educate me. |
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Post by Toreador on Jun 1, 2023 16:30:37 GMT
These increases, what are they over the past 10 years and past 50 years That's up to B4, he's the one offering to educate me. Swerve.....Start at 2deg rise in the past 140 years. |
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Post by Montegriffo on Jun 1, 2023 16:34:21 GMT
This is clearly just another hysterical arm waving thread. Different members have different concerns and priorities. It's not helpful or productive to simply dismiss an opinion as ''hysterical arm waving''. How would you like concerns over immigration, for example, to be described as such? |
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Post by Orac on Jun 1, 2023 18:47:09 GMT
Several Posts removed - Tackle the ball only.
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Post by colbops on Jun 1, 2023 18:48:02 GMT
Personally I don't think looking at rate of change since 1981 is all that useful it is just too short a timeframe when considering climate change. It is a big picture subject. The rate of change now is not appreciably different to the rate of change 450 million years ago as the earth exited an ice age. Its not appreciably different to several interglacial periods 350 to 280 million years ago. There are several time periods where temperatures have risen as rapidly to a point higher than they are now, and then dropped dramatically as the earth entered another glacial period. There are times when the earth has exited an ice age and its taken over 100 million years to enter another, while on other occasions its been less than a million. The reverse is also true. The current Ice age started 26 million years ago. In the ice age immediately before this one, temps at their lowest were some 5 degrees higher than they are now. The low temps in this ice age are arguably a new record, and nothing remotely comparable has been seen since more than 260 million years ago. Whether the earth comes out of the current ice age or tips back into another glacial period before it does is impossible to say. The only thing we can be sure of is that none of us will live long enough to find out. OK. 1, It doesn't matter what earths temperature was 450 million years ago. What matters is that humans, animals and plants are adjusted to temperatures and weather they have had for the last 500 years. The rapid change in these conditions is catching out humans, animals and plants. Changes in min max temperatures, rainfall intensity and frequency , wind speeds, tide heights etc effect human infrastructure and animal habitats. 2, We do know when and how long ice ages are going to be, these are not random events they are caused by earths trajectory around the sun and the slow changes in its tilt, we mapped these out back in the 1940's
Since you seem sure how long ice ages are going to be, perhaps you could enlighten us as to when the current ice age will end. Furthermore if you could let me know when the current interglacial period will end that would be great. I've seen scientific opinion suggest the current interglacial period started as recently as 11,000 years ago to as long as 17,000 years ago, and that it will last anywhere from another 5000 years to 10s of 1000s of years.
The general consensus seems to be that Milankovitch cycles cannot explain glacial and interglacial periods let alone the large shifts in the climate and that other factors must also be at play. There have been all sorts of suggestions - changes to tectonic plates, change in continental masses, volcanic activity, Biological influences, atmospheric currents, erosion, the list goes on. What is apparent is that nobody actually knows - apart from you and your 'we' it seems.
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Post by besoeker3 on Jun 1, 2023 18:49:51 GMT
Highlights. Earth's temperature has risen by an average of 0.14° Fahrenheit (0.08° Celsius) per decade since 1880, or about 2° F in total. The rate of warming since 1981 is more than twice as fast: 0.32° F (0.18° C) per decade. Personally I don't think looking at rate of change since 1981 is all that useful it is just too short a timeframe when considering climate change. It is a big picture subject. The rate of change now is not appreciably different to the rate of change 450 million years ago as the earth exited an ice age. Its not appreciably different to several interglacial periods 350 to 280 million years ago. There are several time periods where temperatures have risen as rapidly to a point higher than they are now, and then dropped dramatically as the earth entered another glacial period. There are times when the earth has exited an ice age and its taken over 100 million years to enter another, while on other occasions its been less than a million. The reverse is also true. The current Ice age started 26 million years ago. In the ice age immediately before this one, temps at their lowest were some 5 degrees higher than they are now. The low temps in this ice age are arguably a new record, and nothing remotely comparable has been seen since more than 260 million years ago. Whether the earth comes out of the current ice age or tips back into another glacial period before it does is impossible to say. The only thing we can be sure of is that none of us will live long enough to find out. OK. In which decade did that accelerate in any specific period in 450 million years ago? |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2023 19:15:48 GMT
OK. 1, It doesn't matter what earths temperature was 450 million years ago. What matters is that humans, animals and plants are adjusted to temperatures and weather they have had for the last 500 years. The rapid change in these conditions is catching out humans, animals and plants. Changes in min max temperatures, rainfall intensity and frequency , wind speeds, tide heights etc effect human infrastructure and animal habitats. 2, We do know when and how long ice ages are going to be, these are not random events they are caused by earths trajectory around the sun and the slow changes in its tilt, we mapped these out back in the 1940's
Since you seem sure how long ice ages are going to be, perhaps you could enlighten us as to when the current ice age will end. Furthermore if you could let me know when the current interglacial period will end that would be great. I've seen scientific opinion suggest the current interglacial period started as recently as 11,000 years ago to as long as 17,000 years ago, and that it will last anywhere from another 5000 years to 10s of 1000s of years.
The general consensus seems to be that Milankovitch cycles cannot explain glacial and interglacial periods let alone the large shifts in the climate and that other factors must also be at play. There have been all sorts of suggestions - changes to tectonic plates, change in continental masses, volcanic activity, Biological influences, atmospheric currents, erosion, the list goes on. What is apparent is that nobody actually knows - apart from you and your 'we' it seems.
Fear can be a strong motivator. It wasn't that long ago it would have been blamed on the Gods as a response to the the ruling class' pervy orgies. I would hate to see science go down a similar path. |
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Post by zanygame on Jun 1, 2023 19:28:34 GMT
OK. 1, It doesn't matter what earths temperature was 450 million years ago. What matters is that humans, animals and plants are adjusted to temperatures and weather they have had for the last 500 years. The rapid change in these conditions is catching out humans, animals and plants. Changes in min max temperatures, rainfall intensity and frequency , wind speeds, tide heights etc effect human infrastructure and animal habitats. 2, We do know when and how long ice ages are going to be, these are not random events they are caused by earths trajectory around the sun and the slow changes in its tilt, we mapped these out back in the 1940's
You got me. What I meant was we know ice ages don't come and go every few years, which is what I thought you were using to try and blur the issue.
The current interglacial period will possibly go on for another 12,000 years.
None of this effect manmade climate change.
My understanding is that Milankovitch cycles are accurate, but that other factors such as continental drift can change the effects.
But all of these changes take place over millennia or longer. How do you think they effect us over the 30 years we have seen global warming?
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Post by colbops on Jun 1, 2023 21:08:56 GMT
You got me. What I meant was we know ice ages don't come and go every few years, which is what I thought you were using to try and blur the issue.
The current interglacial period will possibly go on for another 12,000 years.
None of this effect manmade climate change.
My understanding is that Milankovitch cycles are accurate, but that other factors such as continental drift can change the effects.
But all of these changes take place over millennia or longer. How do you think they effect us over the 30 years we have seen global warming?
I'm not trying to blur any issue. I don't know what the issue is and I don't see history as an issue. I find the history of the earth interesting, and that includes its climate. Milankovich cycles are accurate but their influence on climate are still not properly understood. In the early part of the quaternary period there appeared to be a direct correlation between axial tilt and glacial and interglacial periods that relationship broke down about 1 million years ago at what is known as the mid-pleistocene transition. While interglacial and interglacial periods and the transition between them may take place over millennia the rate of change isn't. when a glacial or interglacial period is in full swing the rate of change is rapid. The last glacial period was extreme once it got going, the change in global temperatures was extreme, the level of glaciation was extreme, as it came to an end global temps were at an all time low and temps were relatively stable for 1000s of years. As the current interglacial period got going the rate of change has been extreme, as it comes to an end, temps will stabilize for a long period of time before cooling starts to pick up pace. There is nothing to suggest the rate of change seen over the past 30 years is dramatically different to the rate of change during many other interglacial periods that have occurred over the past 500 million years. |
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Post by Red Rackham on Jun 1, 2023 23:21:16 GMT
I was wondering what the overall view is on here regarding climate change. You all know my view, but if you don't. I think manmade climate change is very real and is now urgent. This comes off the back of the fact that I have mentioned several times that there is a cost to doing nothing about climate change, just as there is to do something about it. Be good to see your vote and your views. I voted twice. My initial vote was spoiled lol. I ticked the top option by mistake. I meant to tick the second option. So the one vote in the top option is in fact, void.  |
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Post by Toreador on Jun 2, 2023 5:47:39 GMT
I'm not trying to blur any issue. I don't know what the issue is and I don't see history as an issue. I find the history of the earth interesting, and that includes its climate. Milankovich cycles are accurate but their influence on climate are still not properly understood. In the early part of the quaternary period there appeared to be a direct correlation between axial tilt and glacial and interglacial periods that relationship broke down about 1 million years ago at what is known as the mid-pleistocene transition. While interglacial and interglacial periods and the transition between them may take place over millennia the rate of change isn't. when a glacial or interglacial period is in full swing the rate of change is rapid. The last glacial period was extreme once it got going, the change in global temperatures was extreme, the level of glaciation was extreme, as it came to an end global temps were at an all time low and temps were relatively stable for 1000s of years. As the current interglacial period got going the rate of change has been extreme, as it comes to an end, temps will stabilize for a long period of time before cooling starts to pick up pace. There is nothing to suggest the rate of change seen over the past 30 years is dramatically different to the rate of change during many other interglacial periods that have occurred over the past 500 million years. I long ago made the point that Earth's tilt and undersea currents may well contribute to global warming, whether there may be a relationship between the two I don't know. However, I recently read that the Sahara was once a jungle that changed due to tilt, will revert to jungle in some 12,000 years, again due to tilt. |
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Post by zanygame on Jun 2, 2023 6:00:18 GMT
I'm not trying to blur any issue. I don't know what the issue is and I don't see history as an issue. I find the history of the earth interesting, and that includes its climate. Milankovich cycles are accurate but their influence on climate are still not properly understood. In the early part of the quaternary period there appeared to be a direct correlation between axial tilt and glacial and interglacial periods that relationship broke down about 1 million years ago at what is known as the mid-pleistocene transition. While interglacial and interglacial periods and the transition between them may take place over millennia the rate of change isn't. when a glacial or interglacial period is in full swing the rate of change is rapid. The last glacial period was extreme once it got going, the change in global temperatures was extreme, the level of glaciation was extreme, as it came to an end global temps were at an all time low and temps were relatively stable for 1000s of years. As the current interglacial period got going the rate of change has been extreme, as it comes to an end, temps will stabilize for a long period of time before cooling starts to pick up pace. There is nothing to suggest the rate of change seen over the past 30 years is dramatically different to the rate of change during many other interglacial periods that have occurred over the past 500 million years. Could you define extreme in glacial terms? Temperature changes measurable in 10's of years? I'm also interested in the subject, good to talk to you. |
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