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Post by Orac on Mar 18, 2023 12:39:26 GMT
No, I was told it was a man with a sandwich board. Then he changed into a high-level influential channel. Which you also changed into experts after admitting it was all purely guesswork. Economists have huge levels of plausible deniability - which is how they get paid. Being wrong and being an economist are so tightly intertwined, nobody can prove they are lying.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 18, 2023 12:41:56 GMT
So the economic disaster that demonstrably was the Truss/Kwarteng budget was all the fault of civil servants? Yes - it certainly wasn't anything to do with a couple of billion pounds lost in a sea of unrestrained covid and Ukraine splurging. You can see now there are international moves afoot to prevent governments competing by reducing taxation. As I said, and as you insist upon further demonstrating here, in order to cling to your desired ideological assumptions, you are having to resort to conspiracy theories, apparently believing in some form of international cabal plotting to prevent your beloved tax cuts on a global scale. Lol It demonstrably was not civil servants who tanked the economy but the markets.
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Post by Orac on Mar 18, 2023 12:52:36 GMT
Yes - it certainly wasn't anything to do with a couple of billion pounds lost in a sea of unrestrained covid and Ukraine splurging. You can see now there are international moves afoot to prevent governments competing by reducing taxation. As I said, and as you insist upon further demonstrating here, in order to cling to your desired ideological assumptions, you are having to resort to conspiracy theories, apparently believing in some form of international cabal plotting to prevent your beloved tax cuts on a global scale. Lol It demonstrably was not civil servants who tanked the economy but the markets. I tend to go for plausible explanations for things, rather than silly fairy tales that don't make much sense.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 18, 2023 13:05:29 GMT
As I said, and as you insist upon further demonstrating here, in order to cling to your desired ideological assumptions, you are having to resort to conspiracy theories, apparently believing in some form of international cabal plotting to prevent your beloved tax cuts on a global scale. Lol It demonstrably was not civil servants who tanked the economy but the markets. I tend to go for plausible explanations for things, rather than silly fairy tales that don't make much sense. Have you no sense of irony with that statement? Appearing as you seem to to believe in a conspiracy theory in which an international cabal of civil servants, aided and abetted by the financial markets are acting to prevent the cutting of taxes. All because you cannot accept that uncosted tax cuts spooked the markets. Indeed elsewhere you spent ages trying to tell us that tax cuts come for free and thus don't need to be costed. And you seemingly cannot accept that the markets who deal in reality don't agree with that nonsensical ideological assumption. This apparently does not compute in your head and thus is only explicable by invoking some sort of international conspiracy. Yet it is obvious to most of us that the far more likely explanation is that your ideological assumptions are wrong. You can have tax cuts and/or spending increases, but they need to be costed. Unfunded giveaways will not generate growth. You need the growth first before you can afford giveaways without austerity, this latter tending to shrink the economy and impede growth of itself. The big question is how to stimulate growth without unfunded giveaways. Moves to encourage investment in business activity instead of in bricks and mortar might be a good place to start
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Post by Orac on Mar 18, 2023 13:16:08 GMT
I tend to go for plausible explanations for things, rather than silly fairy tales that don't make much sense. Have you no sense of irony with that statement? Appearing as you seem to to believe in a conspiracy theory in which an international cabal of civil servants, aided and abetted by the financial markets are acting to prevent the cutting of taxes. As i have explained, the market itself is not intending anything. The market is chaotically sensitive to impressions about sentiment. This was used to blow a mole hill up into a plausible sentiment issue. There was no significant underlying reality needed and , indeed , if you look at it rationally (or mechanically), there was no real issue (as is evidenced by our continued existence)
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Post by dodgydave on Mar 18, 2023 13:19:35 GMT
It doesn't make much sense Hunt helping millionaire pensioners back to work, if they are millionaires the odds are they had high flying jobs, he needs to encourage retired nurses, health care professionals, he's targeting the wrong type of retirees to return back to work. Swap the word "millionaire" for senior doctors, surgeons, engineers and see if you feel better... There is a specific problem of exceptionally qualified people retiring EARLY because their pension pot is full. It is pretty stupid of Labour to turn it into a anti-rich populist argument. Encouraging retired nurses back is a separate issue. It's not like they are handing a massive tax dodge to "millionaires". They will simply end up paying the tax later when they draw their pension... that is how pensions work.
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Post by sheepy on Mar 18, 2023 13:38:23 GMT
Which you also changed into experts after admitting it was all purely guesswork. Economists have huge levels of plausible deniability - which is how they get paid. Being wrong and being an economist are so tightly intertwined, nobody can prove they are lying. Therein lies the problem perhaps, once announced as an expert it is an open invitation to make it up as one goes along.
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Post by dodgydave on Mar 18, 2023 13:38:31 GMT
A growth positive policy might be to reduce taxation. Someone tried that quite recently and civil service soft-couped them Yes, that was the typical Tory way, make the richer richer and wait for the trickle-down. To my knowledge it is an approach that has only ever succeeded in making the rich richer. There has NEVER been a "trickle-down" policy, because "trickle-down" is a made up label that some people use to describe capitalism. Conservatism is not about making the rich richer, or keeping people down. It is about personal responsibility... ie it is up to the individual to make their own life a success. The problem with this is that there is a huge part of society that has little or no personal responsibility, so you need social policies to protect / help them. This is why most people shift from left to right over their life time. Life is tough when you are young so you lean to the left. You work hard, see the results and by the time you are 50 you think fuck me I'm a Tory. Unless you drift through life, then you hit 50, have little to show for it, and still think life is unfair and move to the far left lol. This is why the Tories normally win... they are the party of protecting what you have personally achieved. The Tories are about to get a slap in the face because they have drifted too far away from the middle. This is normally the time when Labour come in and strengthen the social policies. Good luck with that this time though. Starmer sounds more like a Tory than Rishi does lol. This is basic stuff, if you don't understand this then god help you.
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Post by Baron von Lotsov on Mar 18, 2023 13:43:06 GMT
And to think people would vote for him. I think it depends on how well Rishi fixes the economy. If we start to get reports nearer the election that the economy has surpassed predictions, especially if it does by a long way, then Starmer is dead meat, for all his doom and gloom predictions would be seen as wrong. Results are a better currency for winning elections, not promises.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 18, 2023 14:24:59 GMT
The next general election is now less than two years away, probably 21 months away, and there seems to be no sign of any movement in the polls, with the Labour lead still averaging 20 points.
Its worth bearing in mind that a lead of half the present showing would still see a Labour government.
It will take much more than some signs of economic recovery to move these figures into a position where the Conservatives can safely go into a general election. I am convinced that for a lot of people its just weariness of 13 years of cuts to public services, a country divided like never before due to Brexit, the state of the NHS, a corrupt and lying Boris Johnson, another leader who almost wrecked the economy, the cost of living crisis and I feel that many people just think its time for a change.
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Post by patman post on Mar 18, 2023 14:43:14 GMT
And to think people would vote for him. I think it depends on how well Rishi fixes the economy. If we start to get reports nearer the election that the economy has surpassed predictions, especially if it does by a long way, then Starmer is dead meat, for all his doom and gloom predictions would be seen as wrong. Results are a better currency for winning elections, not promises. Can you pinpoint any UK election that's been won on results rather than promises (broken or kept)?
"Get Brexit Done" was a promise that got a landslide victory — though having Corbyn as the main opponent obviously helped...
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Post by Deleted on Mar 18, 2023 14:45:52 GMT
The next general election is now less than two years away, probably 21 months away, and there seems to be no sign of any movement in the polls, with the Labour lead still averaging 20 points. Its worth bearing in mind that a lead of half the present showing would still see a Labour government. It will take much more than some signs of economic recovery to move these figures into a position where the Conservatives can safely go into a general election. I am convinced that for a lot of people its just weariness of 13 years of cuts to public services, a country divided like never before due to Brexit, the state of the NHS, a corrupt and lying Boris Johnson, another leader who almost wrecked the economy, the cost of living crisis and I feel that many people just think its time for a change. I wouldn't worry about it. It was a sure Labour victory when slimey hypocrite Kinnock was leader, and they still lost.
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Post by Fairsociety on Mar 18, 2023 14:46:43 GMT
The next general election is now less than two years away, probably 21 months away, and there seems to be no sign of any movement in the polls, with the Labour lead still averaging 20 points. Its worth bearing in mind that a lead of half the present showing would still see a Labour government. It will take much more than some signs of economic recovery to move these figures into a position where the Conservatives can safely go into a general election. I am convinced that for a lot of people its just weariness of 13 years of cuts to public services, a country divided like never before due to Brexit, the state of the NHS, a corrupt and lying Boris Johnson, another leader who almost wrecked the economy, the cost of living crisis and I feel that many people just think its time for a change. Many of us keep asking the same question over and over again, what is a Labour alternative.
Just off the top of my head, I don't know where Labour stand on Brexit, illegal migrant crossing, Covid, inflation, cost of living crisis, energy bill hikes?
Honestly Starmer is running out of steam, he can't avoid these questions until a few weeks before the next GE, keeping his cards close to his chest is not good enough.
He waits to see the flow of the tide then tries to run with it, he sits on the fence, it simply is not good enough for the potential next Prime Minister.
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Post by zanygame on Mar 18, 2023 16:29:06 GMT
No, I was told it was a man with a sandwich board. Then he changed into a high-level influential channel. No - you aren't paying attention. It was a man with a sandwich board who was relentlessly publicised as a sentiment problem by influential channel/ channels The primary concern of the investor is aggregate sentiment - it trumps any reality. Many bank runs could be avoided if depositors kept their money in banks - but that isn't what happens. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner%27s_dilemmaYou may not agree with my diagnosis of what happened and that's fine, but you are arguing against it by arguing that well known and significant features of markets are something I just made up - which is a daft way to argue. Now you're comparing chalk and cheese. The public might well cause a panic bank run if persuaded their money will disappear, maybe even through rumour mongering. But a pension company would not stop buying government bonds on the basis of a rumour. Further there was no need for any rumour, the facts were out there for all to see. Liz Truss refused to call it a budget, to avoid scrutiny. She stopped the OBR looking at it to avoid scrutiny and it was a completely alien concept to the investment market. No need for any rumour.
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Post by zanygame on Mar 18, 2023 16:31:07 GMT
Which you also changed into experts after admitting it was all purely guesswork. Economists have huge levels of plausible deniability - which is how they get paid. Being wrong and being an economist are so tightly intertwined, nobody can prove they are lying. Trust me, no one uses an economist who uses plausible deniability. What we all want is the most accurate we can get, not the guy who says "Not my fault"
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