|
|
Post by Orac on Mar 11, 2023 14:14:01 GMT
That's what I mean - bad thinking If this is all you can contribute I'll stop answering you. I would expect you to have atleast a basic knowledge about what's causing our unusual weather and why that's important before you claim its bad thinking. Snow in March for the UK is not 'unusual weather' |
|
|
|
Post by zanygame on Mar 11, 2023 14:21:09 GMT
If this is all you can contribute I'll stop answering you. I would expect you to have atleast a basic knowledge about what's causing our unusual weather and why that's important before you claim its bad thinking. Snow in March for the UK is not 'unusual weather' Ok. |
|
|
|
Post by zanygame on Mar 11, 2023 14:45:03 GMT
Meanwhile back on earth we are looking at an enormous anti cyclone sitting in the North Atlantic at a time of year when there shouldn't be enough heat energy to produce it.
Its nearly 2,000 miles across and is drawing arctic air down across North America. Its so large that its also driving that arctic air across the Atlantic and onto our shores.
But heck that's just weather isn't it.
|
|
|
|
Post by Baron von Lotsov on Mar 11, 2023 16:18:46 GMT
Meanwhile back on earth we are looking at an enormous anti cyclone sitting in the North Atlantic at a time of year when there shouldn't be enough heat energy to produce it. Its nearly 2,000 miles across and is drawing arctic air down across North America. Its so large that its also driving that arctic air across the Atlantic and onto our shores. But heck that's just weather isn't it. What if the weather patterns are fractal if we say null out the seasonal cycles and look at deviation from the mean? If this were the case then whatever scale you look at the timeline on, you never get a convergence on a mean, rather you see the same random shapes as any other timescale, even over millions of years. This would be a stochastic process. The past can not give one any clue about the future. I think clouds are a bit like this. Whatever scale you look at them from, they still look similar. |
|
|
|
Post by sandypine on Mar 11, 2023 16:32:30 GMT
Well it is cultist talk when you take one event, not an unprecedented event by any means, and talk it up as evidence of global warming as caused by man.You quoted a 17C change in temperature as something unusual for alternate days yet 20C in one day is a fairly regular occurrence in Spring and Autumn. I recall an Easter weekend in 1975 whereby there was heavy snow Saturday morning and we were sunbathing Sunday afternoon on the beach. What is 'normal' in weather and climate? Blizzards in Southern California are by no means unknown and once you get hold of one unusual event, and unusual events are the very stuff of weather, then Lo and Behold it is AGM. I have lived through at least twenty unusual, but not unprecedented, events, they happen because the weather and climate are fickle. The latest storm is not evidence of global warming, it is the result. It may well be as no one I know disputes warming is occurring. What is unproven is that C02 is the culprit and to what degree the climate is warming. |
|
|
|
Post by sandypine on Mar 11, 2023 16:35:37 GMT
Meanwhile back on earth we are looking at an enormous anti cyclone sitting in the North Atlantic at a time of year when there shouldn't be enough heat energy to produce it. Its nearly 2,000 miles across and is drawing arctic air down across North America. Its so large that its also driving that arctic air across the Atlantic and onto our shores. But heck that's just weather isn't it. It is a rare event, not an unknown one and yes it is just weather, affected by climate and affected by a multitude of factors. |
|
|
|
Post by zanygame on Mar 11, 2023 16:45:54 GMT
Meanwhile back on earth we are looking at an enormous anti cyclone sitting in the North Atlantic at a time of year when there shouldn't be enough heat energy to produce it. Its nearly 2,000 miles across and is drawing arctic air down across North America. Its so large that its also driving that arctic air across the Atlantic and onto our shores. But heck that's just weather isn't it. What if the weather patterns are fractal if we say null out the seasonal cycles and look at deviation from the mean? If this were the case then whatever scale you look at the timeline on, you never get a convergence on a mean, rather you see the same random shapes as any other timescale, even over millions of years. This would be a stochastic process. The past can not give one any clue about the future. I think clouds are a bit like this. Whatever scale you look at them from, they still look similar. But we know the planet is warming, so your hypothesis doesn't hold. Its not random its driven |
|
|
|
Post by zanygame on Mar 11, 2023 16:47:37 GMT
The latest storm is not evidence of global warming, it is the result. It may well be as no one I know disputes warming is occurring. What is unproven is that C02 is the culprit and to what degree the climate is warming. Nothing in science is ever proven. But the evidence is very strong that it is Co2 that A; Gives earth its ambient temperature B; Is causing the increase. |
|
|
|
Post by zanygame on Mar 11, 2023 16:52:59 GMT
Meanwhile back on earth we are looking at an enormous anti cyclone sitting in the North Atlantic at a time of year when there shouldn't be enough heat energy to produce it. Its nearly 2,000 miles across and is drawing arctic air down across North America. Its so large that its also driving that arctic air across the Atlantic and onto our shores. But heck that's just weather isn't it. It is a rare event, not an unknown one and yes it is just weather, affected by climate and affected by a multitude of factors. Another "rare" event to add to the increasing stack of "rare" events. Just like the "rare" record breaking temperatures, wind speeds, El nino's, hurricane and cyclone strengths. That are anything but "rare" in the last decade. Still its hard to argue with the statement that is just weather, after all when the wind speeds reach 300mph it will still be "just weather" |
|
|
|
Post by Baron von Lotsov on Mar 11, 2023 17:23:33 GMT
What if the weather patterns are fractal if we say null out the seasonal cycles and look at deviation from the mean? If this were the case then whatever scale you look at the timeline on, you never get a convergence on a mean, rather you see the same random shapes as any other timescale, even over millions of years. This would be a stochastic process. The past can not give one any clue about the future. I think clouds are a bit like this. Whatever scale you look at them from, they still look similar. But we know the planet is warming, so your hypothesis doesn't hold. Its not random its driven This is the bitch. Even if there were a long-term warming bias, how can you be certain. That answer is you can not be if it is fractal. For all you know you might be in a warm spell of the natural pattern or in a cold spell, but then you don't even know if that is moderately cold and it might go even colder, even with a warming bias. This is because your averaging trick simply fails to be valid. think about it - it s right mind-bender and a little anti-intuitive. |
|
|
|
Post by Red Rackham on Mar 11, 2023 17:45:55 GMT
What if the weather patterns are fractal if we say null out the seasonal cycles and look at deviation from the mean? If this were the case then whatever scale you look at the timeline on, you never get a convergence on a mean, rather you see the same random shapes as any other timescale, even over millions of years. This would be a stochastic process. The past can not give one any clue about the future. I think clouds are a bit like this. Whatever scale you look at them from, they still look similar. But we know the planet is warming, so your hypothesis doesn't hold. Its not random its driven ZG, there's a critical word you neglected to mention. We know the planet is warming ' again'. Will someone let lefty alarmists know that global cooling/warming is not a new phenomenon, for Christs sake this is hardly a secret. But thanks to the internet, 24/7 news media and the Twittersphere, inexperienced and impressionable young people (see the sainted Greta) think the end is nigh. |
|
|
|
Post by patman post on Mar 11, 2023 17:49:57 GMT
Still more verbal diarrhoea in a thread that seems dedicated to those who don’t understand the difference between climate and weather…
|
|
|
|
Post by Red Rackham on Mar 11, 2023 17:57:18 GMT
Still more verbal diarrhoea in a thread that seems dedicated to those who don’t understand the difference between climate and weather… Why don't you explain... |
|
|
|
Post by patman post on Mar 11, 2023 18:03:36 GMT
There’s no point.
If those claiming that today being cold and snowy shows global warming and climate change is a farce then we’d need to start way back at infant school level…
|
|
|
|
Post by zanygame on Mar 11, 2023 18:30:40 GMT
But we know the planet is warming, so your hypothesis doesn't hold. Its not random its driven This is the bitch. Even if there were a long-term warming bias, how can you be certain. That answer is you can not be if it is fractal. For all you know you might be in a warm spell of the natural pattern or in a cold spell, but then you don't even know if that is moderately cold and it might go even colder, even with a warming bias. This is because your averaging trick simply fails to be valid. think about it - it s right mind-bender and a little anti-intuitive. Nothing in science is ever certain, you must know that. But the evidence that Co2 causes warming and that we are increasing Co2 concentrations is very strong If it looks like a duck and it quacks like a duck most scientists would agree its a duck. What we do know is when the world is in a warm spell and when its in a cold spell. so unless you are proposing some unknown energy not yet noticed by science then the duck is a duck. |
|
