scotland wants to end monarchy

You could be right so I will ask him if he is not in the huff again.  Where you Soapy Souter as well.  I remember him.  Look on the bright side.  He might take up politics.  He certainly will not get a job with his risk assessment 

The most glaring thing here is how totally out of touch with this whole subject so many people across the country must be.

Out of the 3 territories that might be considered likely to break away

- There is not anything like the appetite in Wales for it realistically be independent within any of the timescales above.

- The Supreme Court decision on Scottish indyref2 has knocked the stuffing out of the prospects of us even having a referendum for at least 20 years in all probability, and

- There is currently no clamour for a border referendum in NI so no prospect of one being called any time soon.

This is basic awareness stuff as, I would have thought, is the fact that a realistic timescale from triggering a referendum, completing settlement negotiations, and getting all of the arrangements and processes in place and independence launched, is 4 or 5 years. Not only that but there is in the region of a 50/50 chance right now of getting a Yes vote in any Indy referendum in any of these territories, and zero chance of getting one in Wales.

Despite all of this, close to 1 in 4 of us laughably think that one of these 3 territories will, or may, have broken away from the UK within 12 months, and more than half of us think that this will or may happen within the next 5 years, which is hardly any less laughable..

Based upon this, I think that we can be as certain as we can that neither of the shorter timeframes above is going to see any change. So if anything is going to happen it will be in one of the 2 longer timeframes in the table above.

Even then, I think that we can safely rule out Wales from our calculations, leaving Scotland and/or Northern Ireland to be the one to make the break.

We can’t rule Scotland out completely, but right now, my views is that there is little prospect of a referendum any time soon unless there is a seismic shift in public support for independence amongst the Scottish people. We live in turbulent times so who knows what lies ahead but it feels to me, despite recent polls showing a slight lead for Yes, that the mid to long term isn’t going to see Indy support do any better than bob up and down along the 50% line, and, with the increasing prospect of a Labour PM in Downing Street, the tendency is likely for it to be more down below that line over the mid term at least .

So the real prospect to leave is NI. It will surely reunite with the rest of the island at some stage, it has a mechanism for triggering a referendum and a timeframe for holding another as little as 7 years later if the demand is there, and it would presumably be easier and therefore take less time for it to be assimilated into Ireland than it would take Scotland or Wales to go full on Indy. Will it happen within 10 years, probably not - but 20 years seems quite likely to me.

That's funny.  You just denied you were Balmaha.  What was that about chain yanking .  And the real Balmaha has been in touch with me  You are the joker who ranted about Risk Assessment.  Second time I have asked. Instead of making a total prat of yourself  What was your name on the old forum. If you do not want to say so.  Just say so.  You are now a liar. Any credibility you had has now gone.  By the way sooner or later I will suss it out. As in RISK ASSESSMENT 

Why would it do that? I said very much the same thing in my post, albeit that I didn’t fall back on the old “crystal ball” cliche but simply said “ who knows what lies ahead” instead.  

You really are showing more and more signs that you struggle to read, process and understand things.  Maybe you should be a little less eager to try to score points against me and instead take time to remove those Indy blinkers and properly read what I post before firing back your latest twisted response.