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Post by Dan Dare on Dec 15, 2022 9:54:17 GMT
Some rather more astute commentators than those who scribe for the legacy media or pontificate on-air have been looking into Rishi’s pledge to eliminate the asylum backlog in twelve months, and are asking some pointed questions.
In the twelve months to September 2022 16,400 initial decisions were made on asylum claims. The backlog currently stands at 143,000. When challenged on this yawning discrepancy Rishi was able to fob off gullible MPs with the old standbys about doubling the numbers of decision-makers and tripling or quadrupling the number of decisions they make in a week (it’s currently 1.2 for each of the 1200 or so decision-makers on staff).
But that’s not what’s going to happen at all. Rishi certainly knows, even if MPs and the GBP do not, that 16% of asylum claims in the backlog are from Albanians. Rishi is gambling that he will be able to pull off the old Albanian disappearing track and lighten the backlog by 23,000 in one fell swoop. He seems to be totally discounting the power of the 'migrants rights' lobby though.
He also knows – because Suella will have told him – that a further 30% are claims from migrants from Afghanistan, Eritrea, Syria and Iran which, under present circumstances are virtually certain to granted. All that’s needed is to place them at the front of the queue.
As for the remainder, as long as the Home Office offers only token resistance the great majority of these claimants could very well find themselves with ILR by year’s end. This sort of ritual shadow-boxing has been a salient feature of each of the four previous asylum amnesties which resulted in grants of permanent settlement to over 300,000 people, many of them to individuals whose claims had been earlier refused.
That’s what a backlog clearance exercise is all about.
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Post by sheepy on Dec 15, 2022 10:14:59 GMT
Wash rinse repeat. Somewhat of the new normal.
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Post by Red Rackham on Dec 15, 2022 16:47:36 GMT
I wonder, has anyone asked Sunak why he doesn't simply block asylum applications from Albanians, as Germany Sweden and France have. Or wont the left wing Home Office allow it.
Actually, France blocks asylum applications from Albanians, then quietly points them in the direction of Angleterre while publicly blaming Brexit.
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Post by dappy on Dec 15, 2022 17:42:51 GMT
Germany has a presumption against people from Albania being entitled to asylum, not as I understand it a complete ban.
France as I understand it receives roughly the same number of applicants from Albania as the UK.
There are some misleading statistics around acceptence rates from Albania. Their is a marked difference in acceptence rates in the UK between Albanian women and Albanian men. In the year to June 2022 roughly 90% of female decisions were positive just 14% of male. In very recent times the number of Albanian men applying has increased. Few of those cases have been determined yet (we take far too long) -if those sex decision statistics remain the same, the overall Albanian acceptance rate is likely to drop significantly. The reason why female acceptance rates has been high(although overall numbers quite low) is that a large proportion of sex workers/"escorts" in the UK are Albanian, most brought here against their will, held here by fear and the threat of reprisals to them and their family if they don comply.
I have no objection to learning lessons that can be learned from Germany but it is important to understand the real facts rather than rely on the misrepresentations you see in the tabloids also.
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Post by Dan Dare on Dec 15, 2022 21:18:29 GMT
dappy appears to be constructing a victimisation narrative based on gender differentials vis-a-vis acceptance rates for Albanian asylum claimants in the year to September 2022.
Even though he does acknowledge that overall numbers are quite low his preferred narrative does not indicate just how low.
In fact in the period that dappy refers to just 50 of the 7219 Albanians who claimed asylum have received an initial decision and all of them - of whatever gender - were refused.
In the meantime there are almost 23,000 claims by Albanians still in the backlog.
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Post by Dan Dare on Dec 15, 2022 21:26:37 GMT
I wonder, has anyone asked Sunak why he doesn't simply block asylum applications from Albanians, as Germany Sweden and France have. Or wont the left wing Home Office allow it. Actually, France blocks asylum applications from Albanians, then quietly points them in the direction of Angleterre while publicly blaming Brexit. I'm unaware of any public blaming in France of Britain's channel migrant crisis on Brexit. Do you have a source? Perhaps from a prominent politician?
The commentary I see most frequently in the French media refers to the pull factors that the UK exerts on would-be Channel paddlers which is usually said to be a combination of the presence of 'bridgehead communities into which new arrivals can disappear, the ease of entry into the grey labour market, the almost complete absence of official controls and the near certainty that once landed you will never be removed.
Of course all these factors existed prior to Brexit and all that has really changed is the mode of transport.
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Post by Toreador on Dec 15, 2022 21:31:33 GMT
I wonder, has anyone asked Sunak why he doesn't simply block asylum applications from Albanians, as Germany Sweden and France have. Or wont the left wing Home Office allow it. Actually, France blocks asylum applications from Albanians, then quietly points them in the direction of Angleterre while publicly blaming Brexit. I'm unaware of any public blaming in France of Britain's channel migrant crisis on Brexit. Do you have a source? Perhaps from a prominent politician?
The commentary I see most frequently in the French media refers to the pull factors that the UK exerts on would-be Channel paddlers which is usually said to be a combination of the presence of 'bridgehead communities into which new arrivals can disappear, the ease of entry into the grey labour market, the almost complete absence of official controls and the near certainty that once landed you will never be removed.
Of course all these factors existed prior to Brexit and all that has really changed is the mode of transport.
That also happens right across the EU. |
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Post by Dan Dare on Dec 15, 2022 21:36:06 GMT
Even if true, does that make it an appropriate strategy for the UK? At least other EU member states could at least try to claim that 'Brussels makes them do it'. What's the UK's excuse?
Most people will recall that one of the principal objectives behind leaving the EU was to retake control of the borders. What happened?
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Post by Toreador on Dec 15, 2022 21:45:16 GMT
Even if true, does that make it an appropriate strategy for the UK? At least other EU member states could at least try to claim that 'Brussels makes them do it'. What's the UK's excuse? Most people will recall that one of the principal objectives behind leaving the EU was to retake control of the borders. What happened? It is not easy because it is true and though we are not handling it well neither is the majority of the EU. |
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Post by Red Rackham on Dec 15, 2022 21:47:00 GMT
I'm unaware of any public blaming in France of Britain's channel migrant crisis on Brexit. Do you have a source? Perhaps from a prominent politician?
The commentary I see most frequently in the French media refers to the pull factors that the UK exerts on would-be Channel paddlers which is usually said to be a combination of the presence of 'bridgehead communities into which new arrivals can disappear, the ease of entry into the grey labour market, the almost complete absence of official controls and the near certainty that once landed you will never be removed. Of course all these factors existed prior to Brexit and all that has really changed is the mode of transport.
Public blaming in France! I never said there was public blaming in France. I know from my son that the cross channel invasion isn't in the news in France, people are either not bothered or unaware of it. The item I referred to on Times Radio was a comment from a senior French politician who when asked who's fault it was that migrants were drowning, appeared to shrug and blame Brexit. He certainly seemed unconcerned. Which is odd when you consider where these migrants are leaving from. |
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Post by Dan Dare on Dec 15, 2022 21:49:30 GMT
Public blaming in France! I never said there was public blaming in France. I thought you were:
"Actually, France blocks asylum applications from Albanians, then quietly points them in the direction of Angleterre while publicly blaming Brexit.
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Post by Red Rackham on Dec 15, 2022 21:51:08 GMT
Public blaming in France! I never said there was public blaming in France. I thought you were:
"Actually, France blocks asylum applications from Albanians, then quietly points them in the direction of Angleterre while publicly blaming Brexit.
Apologies, I thought you were talking official policy. |
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Post by Pacifico on Dec 22, 2022 7:40:28 GMT
Interesting comparison between France and the UK
The Home Office data showed that the proportion granted asylum in the UK on the initial decision rose from a third (34 per cent) in 2016 to more than three-quarters (77 per cent) in 2021.
In contrast, France’s asylum grant rate fell by seven percentage points – from 32 per cent to 25 per cent – over the same period, while the average for the EU as a whole dropped by 25 percentage points to 38 per cent.
It means Britain is among the five most generous nations in the EU, while France is the fifth lowest.
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Post by Toreador on Dec 22, 2022 7:44:14 GMT
Interesting comparison between France and the UK The Home Office data showed that the proportion granted asylum in the UK on the initial decision rose from a third (34 per cent) in 2016 to more than three-quarters (77 per cent) in 2021.
In contrast, France’s asylum grant rate fell by seven percentage points – from 32 per cent to 25 per cent – over the same period, while the average for the EU as a whole dropped by 25 percentage points to 38 per cent.
It means Britain is among the five most generous nations in the EU, while France is the fifth lowest.
The question has to be why the French don't return them to their previous country when they find no reasons to grant refugee status? |
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Post by Dan Dare on Dec 22, 2022 9:54:18 GMT
Migrationwatch has just published an extensive briefing on differential asylum acceptance rates vis-a-vis the EU - basically the UK accepts twice as many claims proportionately as the EU. It cites a recently revealed sensitive, internal Home Office document which confirms that ‘secondary movement of those who have already applied for asylum elsewhere in Europe is an important aspect of the UK’s asylum intake. MW also makes the point very strongly that the high suscess rates in the UK is a strong pull-factor for many of those crossing the channel who have already had asylum claims rejected there.
"‘Eurodac data suggests an important portion of Sudanese and Afghan applicants to the UK have previously applied for asylum in France: of the 2019 UK asylum intake, at least a quarter (24%) of Sudanese asylum applicants had previously applied in France as had at least 1 in 10 (9%) Afghan nationals’
" there is a strong likelihood that the significant recent increase in asylum grant rates in the UK has added to the powerful magnetising effect of UK asylum and enforcement chaos, drawing more and more people across the English Channel"
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