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Post by Dan Dare on Oct 29, 2024 10:32:11 GMT
According to the ONS the total fertility rate for England and Wales fell to 1.44 in 2023, less than half the value in the late 1960s. Replacement level for E&W is 2.08.
If non-White British births (44% of the total) are excluded the fertility rate drops to less than one, the lowest in the world. Per the ONS live births in 2024 were as follows:
White British 328,247 56%
Any other White background 63,311 11%
Mixed/multiple ethnic groups 40,345 7%
Pakistani 28,686 5%
Black African 28,183 5%
Indian 27,908 5%
Not stated 20,657 3%
Any other Asian background 18,533 3%
Any other ethnic group 14,904 3%
Bangladeshi 10,999 2%
Black Caribbean 4,932 1%
Any other Black background 4,069 1%
At this rate the English and Welsh will become extinct soon after the turn of the century.
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Post by borgr0 on Oct 29, 2024 10:37:07 GMT
Also the case in South America, The Far East (Japan et al - even China's birthrate is going below replacement TFR), the rest of Europe - almost all of it and so many other countries too
Not sure what can be done about it. Orban tried a program to encourage a baby boom but even that didn't work with inducements for new families
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Post by borgr0 on Oct 29, 2024 10:45:00 GMT
They speculate certain things like the adulteration of our foods, air pollution and other forms of pollution and exposure to toxic materials are making fertility rates much worse than they ought to be, microplastics are widely speculated to be a part of this also
IIRC, the highest TFR in the world is found in Sub-Saharan Africa, but as societies become more educated and higher GDP per capita they seem to tend towards having less children. It could just be that, quite simply, not wanting to have kids because it impedes having a 'modern life'
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Post by Dan Dare on Oct 29, 2024 11:02:41 GMT
It doesn't seem to be an impediment for the 'new Brits' arriving annually in their hundreds of thousands.
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Post by borgr0 on Oct 29, 2024 11:07:34 GMT
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Post by Dan Dare on Oct 29, 2024 11:35:28 GMT
We also need to be mindful also of the principal of 'demographic overhang', the time interval between a population's birthrate falling to replacement level and the point at which it stabilises and starts to (gently) decline. For most developing countries that is usually taken to be about 70 years.
The UK reached 2.0 sometime in the sixties and the native population began to fall in the late 90s. It's hard to be precise because of the effects of migrant births and subsequent further natural growth amongst that population cohort, obfuscated of course by the long-term official squeamishness about discussing such matters.
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