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Post by zanygame on Dec 17, 2022 11:15:11 GMT
Do you. So when there's a clear correlation between poverty and crime, you think its foolish to look for a causal link to explain the correlation. That sounds a trite convenient to me. How many angels can dance on a pin head Mags. Of course there are other factors 🙄 That does not mean poverty is not a major one. The association between poverty and crime is so stark that if you are claiming its just correlation you would need to explain what else causes the obvious link between the two. I'm not interested in your crime causes poverty claim. Its irrelevant to this discussion, unless you think the wealth gap is caused by crime by the poor. You dismiss it out of hand as irrelevant, even though there is an unarguable relationship. Crime obviously (unarguably) causes poverty. You dismiss what we can actually see and insist what we can't see must be real. There is an unarguable relationship between crime and prison, but its not relevant to this thread, your just pulling out your smoke and mirrors again.
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Post by zanygame on Dec 17, 2022 11:18:29 GMT
Assuming you sign up to the correlation over cause, then you must have a different cause for increased crime by poorer people? Not necessarily: The same factors that lead to poverty also lead to crime ie they have the same root cause. I'm sure you didn't intend to but you make a valid point. The things that lead to poverty in turn lead to crime, so civilisations try to prevent that poverty, with education, jobs, benefits, health care etc. The crux of this matter is that some are thinking we can stop addressing these things and just blame it on people coming from outside the UK.
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Post by The Squeezed Middle on Dec 17, 2022 11:19:53 GMT
And I'm sure that you intended to, but you failed to make a valid point.
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Post by Orac on Dec 17, 2022 11:36:58 GMT
The association between poverty and crime is so stark that if you are claiming its just correlation You don't seem to be getting what I'm saying here. I'm not saying the correlation is random chance, I'm questioning whether your hypothesis regarding causation is correct (or well supported). If poverty causes crime, you could expect crime and poverty to be correlated If crime causes poverty, you could expect crime and poverty to be correlated If Low IQ is correlated with both crime and poverty, you could expect crime and poverty to be correlated The interesting things is that you choose to highlight a hypothesis that can't really be supported, while dismissing others that have much stronger support
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Post by The Squeezed Middle on Dec 17, 2022 11:46:22 GMT
...If poverty causes crime, you could expect crime and poverty to be correlated... Indeed, but if poverty caused crime then all poor people would be criminals. Which they're not. So poverty doesn't cause crime. However, they are correlated because they share common causes: The laziness/low intelligence/low aspiration/low achievement that makes people poor also makes them more likely to turn to crime.
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Post by Baron von Lotsov on Dec 17, 2022 12:18:28 GMT
Says me. But also study after study shows the link between the wealth gap, lack of opportunity and crime. I don't think you can use a single village as an accurate measure. From memory I think the figure is that poor people are 8 times more likely to commit crime than rich people. (Median) Classic ignorance - conflation of correlation with cause. We get it all the time nowadays. It's called pseudo science. There's no causal link ever been demonstrated between poverty and crime. And there are so many cofactors that you're spoilt for choice. For example people who can't read tend to be over-represented in crime, and people who can't read tend to be poorer than those who can. Et cetera. The classic ignorance, if deployed by government as the will of the people, is where you set the conditions for fascism to set hold. We got these theories in Nazi Germany pertaining to the Jews.
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Post by zanygame on Dec 17, 2022 13:39:46 GMT
The association between poverty and crime is so stark that if you are claiming its just correlation You don't seem to be getting what I'm saying here. I'm not saying the correlation is random chance, I'm questioning whether your hypothesis regarding causation is correct (or well supported). If poverty causes crime, you could expect crime and poverty to be correlated If crime causes poverty, you could expect crime and poverty to be correlated If Low IQ is correlated with both crime and poverty, you could expect crime and poverty to be correlated It might be better if you actually say what you think instead of dancing around telling me what I'm saying while making vague observations. If poverty causes crime, you could expect crime and poverty to be correlated, Yes. If crime causes poverty, you could expect crime and poverty to be correlated, Again explain your reasoning so we can see which is the cart and which the horse. If Low IQ is correlated with both crime and poverty, you could expect crime and poverty to be correlated. Yes but when trying to stop crime you cannot eliminate low IQ all you can do is stop that leading to poverty, then leading to crime. (You can ofcourse educate) Of course it can be supported and it is supported by very many studies. Rich people do not need to commit crime to the extent poor people do for VERY obvious reasons. You can add all the nuances and exceptions to the rule you wish, but it doesn't change the overall trend.
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Post by zanygame on Dec 17, 2022 13:41:17 GMT
...If poverty causes crime, you could expect crime and poverty to be correlated... Indeed, but if poverty caused crime then all poor people would be criminals. Which they're not. So poverty doesn't cause crime. However, they are correlated because they share common causes: The laziness/low intelligence/low aspiration/low achievement that makes people poor also makes them more likely to turn to crime. WHAT! That has to be the most stupid statement you have ever made on here.
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Post by Baron von Lotsov on Dec 17, 2022 13:51:22 GMT
You don't seem to be getting what I'm saying here. I'm not saying the correlation is random chance, I'm questioning whether your hypothesis regarding causation is correct (or well supported). If poverty causes crime, you could expect crime and poverty to be correlated If crime causes poverty, you could expect crime and poverty to be correlated If Low IQ is correlated with both crime and poverty, you could expect crime and poverty to be correlated It might be better if you actually say what you think instead of dancing around telling me what I'm saying while making vague observations. If poverty causes crime, you could expect crime and poverty to be correlated, Yes. If crime causes poverty, you could expect crime and poverty to be correlated, Again explain your reasoning so we can see which is the cart and which the horse. If Low IQ is correlated with both crime and poverty, you could expect crime and poverty to be correlated. Yes but when trying to stop crime you cannot eliminate low IQ all you can do is stop that leading to poverty, then leading to crime. (You can ofcourse educate) Of course it can be supported and it is supported by very many studies. Rich people do not need to commit crime to the extent poor people do for VERY obvious reasons. You can add all the nuances and exceptions to the rule you wish, but it doesn't change the overall trend. Perhaps this will answer the conundrum. Here is the problem in mathematical terms.
It gets a bit more complicated than what most people would understand to be the case.
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Post by The Squeezed Middle on Dec 17, 2022 14:01:38 GMT
Indeed, but if poverty caused crime then all poor people would be criminals. Which they're not. So poverty doesn't cause crime. However, they are correlated because they share common causes: The laziness/low intelligence/low aspiration/low achievement that makes people poor also makes them more likely to turn to crime. WHAT! That has to be the most stupid statement you have ever made on here. Or you're too stupid to understand the point.
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Post by zanygame on Dec 17, 2022 14:08:15 GMT
WHAT! That has to be the most stupid statement you have ever made on here. Or you're too stupid to understand the point. Nope. The point is just stupid. Lets see. Smoking doesn't cause cancer if it did everyone who smoked would have cancer.
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Post by zanygame on Dec 17, 2022 14:11:58 GMT
It might be better if you actually say what you think instead of dancing around telling me what I'm saying while making vague observations. If poverty causes crime, you could expect crime and poverty to be correlated, Yes. If crime causes poverty, you could expect crime and poverty to be correlated, Again explain your reasoning so we can see which is the cart and which the horse. If Low IQ is correlated with both crime and poverty, you could expect crime and poverty to be correlated. Yes but when trying to stop crime you cannot eliminate low IQ all you can do is stop that leading to poverty, then leading to crime. (You can ofcourse educate) Of course it can be supported and it is supported by very many studies. Rich people do not need to commit crime to the extent poor people do for VERY obvious reasons. You can add all the nuances and exceptions to the rule you wish, but it doesn't change the overall trend. Perhaps this will answer the conundrum. Here is the problem in mathematical terms.
It gets a bit more complicated than what most people would understand to be the case.
I don't think anyone has ever claimed it was as simple as Poor=Crime. There are a thousand other influences that can effect the results. But that doesn't change the fact that poverty is a strong influence.
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Post by The Squeezed Middle on Dec 17, 2022 14:24:53 GMT
Or you're too stupid to understand the point. Nope. The point is just stupid. Lets see. Smoking doesn't cause cancer if it did everyone who smoked would have cancer. You've just proved my point.
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Post by zanygame on Dec 17, 2022 14:31:48 GMT
Nope. The point is just stupid. Lets see. Smoking doesn't cause cancer if it did everyone who smoked would have cancer. You've just proved my point. Nope. Smoking does cause cancer. Just because not everyone who smokes gets cancer does not mean smoking doesn't cause cancer. Poverty does cause crime, just because not every poor person is a criminal does not mean poverty doesn't cause crime.
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Post by The Squeezed Middle on Dec 17, 2022 14:39:21 GMT
Nope. You just don't understand the difference between causation and correlation.
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