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Post by Baron von Lotsov on Dec 18, 2022 15:25:35 GMT
hen what is the link if its not the obvious one as found in so many studies? 'The link' is a correlation. However a correlation doesn't(neccesarily) indicate causation. People have pointed out several times that you are conflating correlation and causation and you have claimed that you understand the distinction, but, again and again, you appear to conflate the two. If you can't get that your hypothesis starts with the existence of the criminals you claim it creates. Then I'm stuck. I was outlining a mechanism of causation and, to do so, I need a start (cause) and an end (effect). You did the same when you outlined your hypothesis / mechanism. You can do little thought experiment and think what if your correlation were exact, or lets say within 5 sigma as it is with nuclear physics. You would have to say as the correlations tends to an exact match so the probability of it being anything else drops to zero. Of course arguing against that is the possibility that you have a hidden variable that both are a function of. I mean lets say it is stupidity, so the more stupid you are the more you would do crime and get caught, and also the more stupid you are the less you make in money. It would result in a correlation of sorts, but it is unlikely to be exact. |
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Post by Orac on Dec 18, 2022 15:41:56 GMT
You can do little thought experiment and think what if your correlation were exact, or lets say within 5 sigma as it is with nuclear physics. This can tell you whether a correlation between factors is significant. What it can't do is tell you what factors cause which others. You could only come to a conclusion about causation through observing something other than the correlation itself. |
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Post by Baron von Lotsov on Dec 18, 2022 16:39:59 GMT
You can do little thought experiment and think what if your correlation were exact, or lets say within 5 sigma as it is with nuclear physics. This can tell you whether a correlation between factors is significant. What it can't do is tell you what factors cause which others. You could only come to a conclusion about causation through observing something other than the correlation itself. The chance of any other variable causing an exact correlation tends to zero though. We can say with certainty what the limit is, but with rough correlations it could easily be other explanations. |
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Post by Orac on Dec 18, 2022 16:59:16 GMT
The chance of any other variable causing an exact correlation tends to zero though. That's not the issue. It doesn't (on its own) tell you which factor is cause and which is effect. However, in this case the situation is worse because there are multiple factors all clearly related to each other. As an example, IQ is strongly correlated to both poverty and crime. |
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Post by Baron von Lotsov on Dec 18, 2022 17:42:09 GMT
The chance of any other variable causing an exact correlation tends to zero though. That's not the issue. It doesn't (on its own) tell you which factor is cause and which is effect. However, in this case the situation is worse because there are multiple factors all clearly related to each other. As an example, IQ is strongly correlated to both poverty and crime. I know, but I also know the whole of science is built upon guessing something is right just because of an exact correlation. That's often all you have right out on the frontier. After a while you can often confirm a hypothesis in multiple ways.
Anyway, as for crime I think it is primarily caused by low employability. I'm not really talking about the punch-ups down pubs but those professional career criminals. Crime is the only income they have whether they like it or not. Once you are a state-registered criminal you are barred from legal employment. Of course we encourage the criminal by making sure they are never given a chance to reform whilst lying to them that there are chances. It's the difference between in principle there are, in practice there are not. Even a gap in your employment history is taken as a reason to bar you from a job. It's fascism in the job sector. We like being fascists, so do they.
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Post by zanygame on Dec 18, 2022 18:08:04 GMT
hen what is the link if its not the obvious one as found in so many studies? Oh how bloody dull, I covered this 9 hours ago. Its so disappointing on here that time after time when you get to the chase the person you are chasing just runs round in circles or resorts to personal insults. Zany wrote. I understand the difference between cause and correlation perfectly well thank you.
Correlation would be that more tall people watch horror movies, where on examination there is no causal link.
But there is a causal link between poverty and theft. Poor people steal to get the things they cannot afford to buy and envy having. They also steal because they feel no link to the society they live in.
There are a heap of other factors but that does not make poverty just correlation.
If you can't get that your hypothesis starts with the existence of the criminals you claim it creates. Then I'm stuck. Yeah your hypothesis is that crime causes poverty causes crime. Yet strangely criminals only start this process in poverty stricken areas. 🙄 Simple solution then. Get rid of the poverty areas and the criminals wont be able to start crime. Sigh. |
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Post by sandypine on Dec 18, 2022 18:21:51 GMT
Oh how bloody dull, I covered this 9 hours ago. Its so disappointing on here that time after time when you get to the chase the person you are chasing just runs round in circles or resorts to personal insults. Zany wrote. I understand the difference between cause and correlation perfectly well thank you.
Correlation would be that more tall people watch horror movies, where on examination there is no causal link.
But there is a causal link between poverty and theft. Poor people steal to get the things they cannot afford to buy and envy having. They also steal because they feel no link to the society they live in.
There are a heap of other factors but that does not make poverty just correlation.
Yeah your hypothesis is that crime causes poverty causes crime. Yet strangely criminals only start this process in poverty stricken areas. 🙄 Simple solution then. Get rid of the poverty areas and the criminals wont be able to start crime. Sigh. Maybe a good start would be to stop bringing poor people into the country or even better poor people stop clamouring to get here. |
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Post by Baron von Lotsov on Dec 18, 2022 18:26:02 GMT
Last night I was checking out jobs in my area. There was a particularly simple job of lab technician, as per taking samples, taking measurements and keying them into a computer. The job glibly stated that the applicant must have previous experience working in a microbiology lab. Now applying a bit of intelligence here we can say this is a job on the lowest rung in jobs one can do in a microbiology lab. It may be possible to do such a job if one had previously done a similar job in a microbiology lab. For this to happen there would have to exist jobs the same as this but do not require previous experience working in a microbiology lab. Now lets consider what happens in a market where there is a monopoly buyer. In this case the monopoly buyer is a job agency. The job agency will follow "best practice" which would state somewhere that one must have previous experience because if one did not have the experience of working in a microbiology lab and made a mistake this mistake could be attributed to insufficient experience and so vicarious liability kicks in and so the rule becomes universal. How the fuck can anyone get a job in a microbiology lab in this case?
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Post by The Squeezed Middle on Dec 18, 2022 18:30:43 GMT
Yep that's the effect you had. Still we had 7 pages of interesting discussion before you arrived with your particular form of sedative.
And yet more people agreed with me than you. And the thread's still going strong.
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Post by Orac on Dec 18, 2022 18:59:38 GMT
Anyway, as for crime I think it is primarily caused by low employability. And low employability can be caused by attitudes (culture), stupidity, BO, lack of trust (in either direction), bad economy, lots of immigration etc etc. I'm not really talking about the punch-ups down pubs but those professional career criminals. Crime is the only income they have whether they like it or not. Once you are a state-registered criminal you are barred from legal employment. Of course we encourage the criminal by making sure they are never given a chance to reform whilst lying to them that there are chances. It's the difference between in principle there are, in practice there are not. Even a gap in your employment history is taken as a reason to bar you from a job. It's fascism in the job sector. We like being fascists, so do they. Sure. Criminals have told society at large to go fuck themselves, so it's not very surprising society tells them to do the same back. I think most of the public just want them out of their hair. There are lot of, difficult to escape, downward spirals associated with criminality. |
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Post by Toreador on Dec 18, 2022 19:10:39 GMT
Oh how bloody dull, I covered this 9 hours ago. Its so disappointing on here that time after time when you get to the chase the person you are chasing just runs round in circles or resorts to personal insults. Zany wrote. I understand the difference between cause and correlation perfectly well thank you.
Correlation would be that more tall people watch horror movies, where on examination there is no causal link.
But there is a causal link between poverty and theft. Poor people steal to get the things they cannot afford to buy and envy having. They also steal because they feel no link to the society they live in.
There are a heap of other factors but that does not make poverty just correlation.
Yeah your hypothesis is that crime causes poverty causes crime. Yet strangely criminals only start this process in poverty stricken areas. 🙄 Simple solution then. Get rid of the poverty areas and the criminals wont be able to start crime. Sigh. Nah, as I've already explained, some start it at the bank, some in the board room, others at the dog track or racecourse. In fact there's a whole lot of places where crime is carried out by the well off and chances are the amounts are probably far greater than the crime committed by poor people. Crime is not solely the territory of the poor but it is the territory of of greedfy people or those with no moral compass. |
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Post by Orac on Dec 18, 2022 19:12:17 GMT
I know, but I also know the whole of science is built upon guessing something is right just because of an exact correlationThis is a different kind of domain, Baron. You can easily measure the wavelength of light to a hundredth of a nanometre. Try the same trick for crime or poverty. I'm afraid, all we really have here is a bundle of vaguely defined factors that seem to be vaguely correlated |
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Post by Baron von Lotsov on Dec 18, 2022 19:22:21 GMT
Anyway, as for crime I think it is primarily caused by low employability. And low employability can be caused by attitudes (culture), stupidity, BO, lack of trust (in either direction), bad economy, lots of immigration etc etc. I'm not really talking about the punch-ups down pubs but those professional career criminals. Crime is the only income they have whether they like it or not. Once you are a state-registered criminal you are barred from legal employment. Of course we encourage the criminal by making sure they are never given a chance to reform whilst lying to them that there are chances. It's the difference between in principle there are, in practice there are not. Even a gap in your employment history is taken as a reason to bar you from a job. It's fascism in the job sector. We like being fascists, so do they. Sure. Criminals have told society at large to go fuck themselves, so it's not very surprising society tells them to do the same back. I think most of the public just want them out of their hair. There are lot of, difficult to escape, downward spirals associated with criminality. Yep, that's exactly how it is. There's one other factor that makes it worse, and that is the remedy. There is a whole industry of shits that make money by selling the empty promise that they can get back into work with the right training. This training is demeaning, treating them as those with very low intelligence on how to suck eggs, i.e. useless skills, focus groups and like there is no end up busybodies in this business and they are so out of touch it is astounding. The criminal on the other hand is often pretty intelligent, at least in the skills of their profession. They can get past security that firms claim is unbreakable. The other thing about the life of a professional criminal is it is freelance and has an element of get up and work when you feel like it, no one bossing you around and so on. I'd say it is much the same skill set and attitude as the small self-employed businessman - a calculated risk taker.
The government people rarely see this though. They have a fixed preconception learned in their training. It's as if it is an aspect of a lot wider problem on why so many who do normal work tend to have such low intelligence approaches. One that I see so much today is the extremist mentality. They do not think by degree but in polar opposites, e.g. it is safe to employ this man vs it is not. The extremist would see any security risk as a reason they must be ruled out. The operative word is any.It's converting an analogue world into a binary world. It's unreal/poor approximation.
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Post by zanygame on Dec 18, 2022 19:36:09 GMT
Maybe a good start would be to stop bringing poor people into the country or even better poor people stop clamouring to get here. Is this tacit agreement that there is a causal link between crime and poverty? Anyway to your new point. I clarify again for the record I am against further immigration because I think this country is full.We do not invite poor people into this country we invite skilled people on wages 2k above the median centile and we do it to prop up the rich and keep their taxes as low as possible. (Same reason we have poor in a G8 country.) However I then come up with the eternal problem of why we import workers by the hundreds of thousands every year and that is the topic of mant threads on here and probably the biggest issue facing the UK for the last decade or more. |
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Post by zanygame on Dec 18, 2022 19:43:22 GMT
Nah, as I've already explained, some start it at the bank, some in the board room, others at the dog track or racecourse. In fact there's a whole lot of places where crime is carried out by the well off and chances are the amounts are probably far greater than the crime committed by poor people. Crime is not solely the territory of the poor but it is the territory of of greedy people or those with no moral compass. Here we agree, but generally when discussing crime in this context we are talking of murder or serious injury, usually drug related. The world is run by the rich and the best we can expect to do is limit their misdemeanours. |
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