Post by sandypine on Jun 10, 2024 18:58:32 GMT
wattsupwiththat.com/2024/06/10/avoiding-the-net-zero-trap/
Clintel has just put out a new publication, We Can Still Avoid the Net Zero Trap, by Kees de Lange and Guus Berkhout.
Climate models – constructed by governmental organizations – predict a climate catastrophe caused by greenhouse gases, primarily CO2. This is even though water vapor is the most important greenhouse gas. The model-inspired narrative is that human CO2-emissions poses a fundamental threat to the survival of humanity, therefore, all fossil fuels must be banned.
Fortunately, this doom story is not consistent with the facts. Establishing cause and effect is the most difficult subject in science. After all, correlation is different from causation! This certainly applies to the behavior of our climate. After all, Earth’s climate is extremely complex. Climate processes take place in four-dimensional space: three spatial coordinates and one time coordinate. We know little about it and this is why Earth’s climate behavior is difficult to capture in models.
Experience shows that climate science should not start with complex models, but with reliable observations. The limitations of current climate models, partly due to numerous ungrounded assumptions and numerical limitations, are such that they do not yet properly emulate the climate system, thus they do not form a serious basis for forming climate policy. In particular, the premise that the human contribution to CO2 production can cause a future climate disaster is not supported by observations.
The geological archive tells us that there is no correlation, and therefore no causal link, between CO2 and temperature. Studies of ice cores show that warming precedes an increase in atmospheric CO2 content. The recent past points out that the natural variability of temperature is considerably greater than human influence on it. In the wake of the unreliable predictions of climate models, energy supply on a global scale has become a topic of heated debate. Due to the dubious conclusions of climate models about the role of CO2, fossil fuels have been condemned. The Net Zero approach has become, at least in the West, the political Holy Grail. The reliability of demand-driven fossil energy is sacrificed for supply-driven alternative energy illusions. The West is apparently prepared to risk prosperity for this. The rest of the world watches in amazement and, sometimes, delight.
The report argues for the further development of nuclear energy, with special attention given to the thorium reactor option and its associated advantages. In the long term, this is the only rational way to adequately supply the world with energy. There is therefore no reason to swim further into the Net Zero trap. We can still go back.
In summary, there is climate warming, but there is no climate crisis. Unfortunately, we are at the beginning of a self-made energy crisis. That is very bad news. A rapid and dramatic change in climate and energy policy, by all western governments, is required.
One minor correction to the report, Climate: The Movie was written, directed and edited by Martin Durkin, as well as produced by Tom Nelson.
The report is quite long and detailed but one extract from it was quite telling
"In summary, if we look at the geological past in which humans were completely absent, or if we
turn our gaze to the more recent past in which humans were present but not responsible for
significant CO2 emissions, the Earth, or at least a large part of it will experience significant climate
changes involving both significant warming and cooling. The periods of warming often appeared
to coincide with positive social developments, with societies thriving in many ways. In any case, it
can be concluded that the natural variability of the climate then and now was and is considerable.
Mainstream climatology now argues that recent human activity has made this natural variability
secondary to the warming caused by humans with their greenhouse gases. This fixation on CO2 as
a life-threatening doom gas is mainly a result of climate models, but is hardly supported by observations."
Clintel has just put out a new publication, We Can Still Avoid the Net Zero Trap, by Kees de Lange and Guus Berkhout.
Climate models – constructed by governmental organizations – predict a climate catastrophe caused by greenhouse gases, primarily CO2. This is even though water vapor is the most important greenhouse gas. The model-inspired narrative is that human CO2-emissions poses a fundamental threat to the survival of humanity, therefore, all fossil fuels must be banned.
Fortunately, this doom story is not consistent with the facts. Establishing cause and effect is the most difficult subject in science. After all, correlation is different from causation! This certainly applies to the behavior of our climate. After all, Earth’s climate is extremely complex. Climate processes take place in four-dimensional space: three spatial coordinates and one time coordinate. We know little about it and this is why Earth’s climate behavior is difficult to capture in models.
Experience shows that climate science should not start with complex models, but with reliable observations. The limitations of current climate models, partly due to numerous ungrounded assumptions and numerical limitations, are such that they do not yet properly emulate the climate system, thus they do not form a serious basis for forming climate policy. In particular, the premise that the human contribution to CO2 production can cause a future climate disaster is not supported by observations.
The geological archive tells us that there is no correlation, and therefore no causal link, between CO2 and temperature. Studies of ice cores show that warming precedes an increase in atmospheric CO2 content. The recent past points out that the natural variability of temperature is considerably greater than human influence on it. In the wake of the unreliable predictions of climate models, energy supply on a global scale has become a topic of heated debate. Due to the dubious conclusions of climate models about the role of CO2, fossil fuels have been condemned. The Net Zero approach has become, at least in the West, the political Holy Grail. The reliability of demand-driven fossil energy is sacrificed for supply-driven alternative energy illusions. The West is apparently prepared to risk prosperity for this. The rest of the world watches in amazement and, sometimes, delight.
The report argues for the further development of nuclear energy, with special attention given to the thorium reactor option and its associated advantages. In the long term, this is the only rational way to adequately supply the world with energy. There is therefore no reason to swim further into the Net Zero trap. We can still go back.
In summary, there is climate warming, but there is no climate crisis. Unfortunately, we are at the beginning of a self-made energy crisis. That is very bad news. A rapid and dramatic change in climate and energy policy, by all western governments, is required.
One minor correction to the report, Climate: The Movie was written, directed and edited by Martin Durkin, as well as produced by Tom Nelson.
The report is quite long and detailed but one extract from it was quite telling
"In summary, if we look at the geological past in which humans were completely absent, or if we
turn our gaze to the more recent past in which humans were present but not responsible for
significant CO2 emissions, the Earth, or at least a large part of it will experience significant climate
changes involving both significant warming and cooling. The periods of warming often appeared
to coincide with positive social developments, with societies thriving in many ways. In any case, it
can be concluded that the natural variability of the climate then and now was and is considerable.
Mainstream climatology now argues that recent human activity has made this natural variability
secondary to the warming caused by humans with their greenhouse gases. This fixation on CO2 as
a life-threatening doom gas is mainly a result of climate models, but is hardly supported by observations."
