Reform to challenge Tories

Voter Migration by Party since 2019

This Page First Posted 2 April 2024
Our ever-popular voter migration graphic shows visually the extent of movement between parties. It also includes 'non-voting' as an option, which was popular with some Labour voters in 2019, and is a popular choice for Conservative voters in 2024.

The migration graphic below shows the results of our MRP poll from February. Each figure represents one per cent of those who voted in the 2019 general election, which is equivalent to about 300,000 actual voters. The colour of each figure indicates which party they voted for in 2019.

The migration flows, indicated by the arrows, show how voters have changed their minds since 2019, and indicate the likely transfer of votes at the next election. Parties which are losing voters, such as the Conservatives, have their ranks thinned by lost voters (coloured in grey) who supported them in 2019 but are switched away now. Parties which are gaining votes have their ranks augmented by figures bearing a plus sign (+) who are new supporters of that party since 2019.

Also important are voters who will likely not vote. These are indicated by the big grey figure at the bottom. Some voters did not vote in 2019 but will likely vote in 2024, and they are represented by figures coming out of the non-voting area. Other voters did vote in 2019 but are unlikely to vote this year are shown going into the non-voting area.


In 2019, the Conservatives won 45pc of the GB vote, with Labour on 33pc and the Liberal Democrats on 12pc. The Greens had 3pc and and Brexit 2pc. This is shown in the sizes of the party blocks (including grey voters but ignoring 'plus' voters). The remaining 5pc of voters voted for the SNP, Plaid Cymru and minor parties.

In terms of voter migration, the main story is that voters are leaving the Conservatives in all directions. Twenty-three out of the 45 Conservative voters no longer support the party. Eight have switched to Reform UK, eight more have chosen not to vote at all, and five have switched to Labour. One Conservative voter has gone to each of the Lib Dems and the Greens.

Labour has gained those five Conservative voters, plus three from the Lib Dems and two electors who did not vote in 2019. This represents a reversal of the voters who left Labour in 2019 under Jeremy Corbyn, when voters left for the Conservatives, Lib Dems and to stay at home and not vote.

The Liberal Democrats have gained a Conservative voter, but lost three to Labour. Their overall vote share is reduced, even though they are likely to gain seats due to Conservative weakness.

The Greens have gained two voters from Labour, one from the Conservatives and one from the non-voting group.

You can compare the current migration with the 2017-2019 migration.

Political opinions of Conservative defectors
Our poll also asked people about their most important political issues and policies. Those Conservatives who are switching to Reform UK have traditional strong socially conservative attitudes and (more weakly) free-market economics. They are concerned about immigration and asylum, crime and defence. For policies, they want the Rwanda scheme, restoration of the death penalty and (more mildly) lower tax and spending, reduced regulations, and an elected House of Lords.

Those Conservatives who are likely not to vote also had strong feelings about immigration and asylum and were in favour of the Rwanda scheme and capital punishment, but not as much as those who are defecting to Reform.

Those Conservatives who are going to switch to Labour are worried about the economy, inflation and crime. They would like to see utility nationalisation, more house building, and higher tax and spending.

Conclusions
Current opinion is dominated by the collapse in the Conservative party vote. The Tories are losing voters in all possible directions, with more than half of their 2019 supporters deserting them today. Reform UK is the main beneficiary of the Conservative exodus, and Labour is also set to gain many new voters.